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Author Topic: New CA poll...  (Read 2467 times)
Gustaf
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« on: February 21, 2004, 08:26:22 am »
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A new CA poll shows Bush trailing a generic Democrat by 17 points, 37-54. Now, before you start ahouting at me, my point here is a new one. Other polls have been indicating that CA could be very close, but if this is true Bush would need a landslide to carry it. That IS interesting and relevant information.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2004, 08:37:38 am »
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I really don't expect Bush to carry California.

It would be good if he could give the Democrats a good fight there and force them to commit resources to hold it, since they can't possibly win without it.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2004, 09:21:39 am »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2004, 10:49:16 am »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2004, 10:59:15 am »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2004, 11:11:24 am »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2004, 11:17:37 am »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2004, 11:18:12 am »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

Huh
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2004, 11:18:48 am »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.
Good point...if it's all from San Francisco, it's bad for the Dems, and if it's all from the desert, it's good for the Dems.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2004, 11:18:59 am »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

Huh

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.
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agcatter
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« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2004, 11:37:38 am »
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I really don't think California is in play.  If it is then Bush wins big and that isn't going to happen.  No, California is not going to be in play any more than a state like Indiana is going to be in play for Democrats.  Demographics.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2004, 12:00:00 pm »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

Huh

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.

You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate?
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2004, 12:55:52 pm »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

Huh

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.

You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate?
Could have happened.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2004, 01:19:26 pm »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

Huh

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.

You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate?
Could have happened.

yeah..if the people conducting the poll were a bunch of incompetent amateurs... Smiley
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Esteban Manuel
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2004, 01:37:25 pm »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

If is a true difference of 4% because ussually 4% inside MoE, that's mean TOS
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Esteban Manuel De la Huerta

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Captain Lionel Mandrake : No, I don't think I do, sir, no.
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Esteban Manuel
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2004, 01:45:17 pm »
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But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course... Wink
Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

Huh

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.

You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate?

I second that.

Wich poll is most acutte? It's a problem of 3 var:

1. The dispertion of vote in each sample, the most the dispertion the most the MoE
2. The size of the sample itself, the most the sample the minus the MoE
3. And finally, as Gustaf remember us, the technical quality of the poll itself, especially the questions, sample selection and display.

End of the Resumé, so if someone has the features (and dates) of both polls we can answer the question of wich's most accute.
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Esteban Manuel De la Huerta

Major Jack D Ripper : Mandrake, do you recall what Clemenceau once said about war?
Captain Lionel Mandrake : No, I don't think I do, sir, no.
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PD
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2004, 10:12:11 pm »
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I don't know where you got that poll.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2004, 10:13:55 pm »
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I don't know where you got that poll.
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com
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PD
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« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2004, 10:20:38 pm »
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Oh well that explains it. That site is liberal-leaning.
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« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2004, 10:23:02 pm »
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From what I read on dcpolitical, it's an extremely objective site that gets their information from a wide variety of statewide media sources. How is that liberal?
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i dont know, but i've been told
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #20 on: February 22, 2004, 10:10:46 am »
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From what I read on dcpolitical, it's an extremely objective site that gets their information from a wide variety of statewide media sources. How is that liberal?
Who knows.  Whenever PD sees a poll placing the Republicans behind the Dems, he discredits the site as 'liberal'.
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #21 on: February 22, 2004, 11:50:51 am »
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The man who runs dcpoliticalreport is a Democrat, but the site is objective and the facts are free from bias.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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