New CA poll...

[Gustaf]

A new CA poll shows Bush trailing a generic Democrat by 17 points, 37-54. Now, before you start ahouting at me, my point here is a new one. Other polls have been indicating that CA could be very close, but if this is true Bush would need a landslide to carry it. That IS interesting and relevant information.

[Gustaf]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

[Gustaf]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

[Gustaf]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

[Gustaf]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.

You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate?

[Gustaf]

But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%.  So which poll is accurate?

The one with the best result, of course...

Lol...
But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there.

Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter.

And where the vote is coming from.

By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get.

You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate?

Could have happened.

yeah..if the people conducting the poll were a bunch of incompetent amateurs...