Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[J. J.]

TIPP, Thursday, October 15, 2008

Obama      45 (nc)

McCain      42 (nc)

You might want to look at the 18-24 group.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309042090194597

It's called MOE.  Two days ago it was 74-21 Obama.  The total number of 18-24 voters is unlikely to be more than 100 in this poll - probably less.

That would explain it, of course.  The subgroup.

[muon2]

TIPP, Thursday, October 15, 2008

Obama      45 (nc)

McCain      42 (nc)

You might want to look at the 18-24 group.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309042090194597

It's called MOE.  Two days ago it was 74-21 Obama.  The total number of 18-24 voters is unlikely to be more than 100 in this poll - probably less.

That would explain it, of course.  The subgroup.

Apparently one needs a subscription to see the numbers in the subgroups. If they are small, the firm is muddying rather than clarifying the picture.

[J. J.]

TIPP, Thursday, October 15, 2008

Obama      45 (nc)

McCain      42 (nc)

You might want to look at the 18-24 group.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309042090194597

It's called MOE.  Two days ago it was 74-21 Obama.  The total number of 18-24 voters is unlikely to be more than 100 in this poll - probably less.

That would explain it, of course.  The subgroup.

Apparently one needs a subscription to see the numbers in the subgroups. If they are small, the firm is muddying rather than clarifying the picture.

Agreed.  I thought it was unusual.

[Lief 🗽]

Why don't you cross out the DailyKos poll?

I'm curious what JJ is doing by doing this every day, everyone knows his opinion on the poll already, it seems infantile.

Yep, that's JJ.

[J. J.]

Why don't you cross out the DailyKos poll?

I'm curious what JJ is doing by doing this every day, everyone knows his opinion on the poll already, it seems infantile.

Yep, that's JJ.

Because Lunar insists on putting two bad polls up and treating then differently, because one has an association with a left wing "publication" while the other doesn't.

In other words, if you behave like hacks, you'll be treated hacks. 

Now, Lunar can list them as he does, and they will be fixed.  Or Lunar can post them as just data and leave it that.

If you wish to show your bias, your bias will be illustrated.

[Lief 🗽]

Why don't you cross out the DailyKos poll?

I'm curious what JJ is doing by doing this every day, everyone knows his opinion on the poll already, it seems infantile.

Yep, that's JJ.

Because Lunar insists on putting two bad polls up and treating then differently, because one has an association with a left wing "publication" while the other doesn't.

In other words, if you behave like hacks, you'll be treated hacks. 

Now, Lunar can list them as he does, and they will be fixed.  Or Lunar can post them as just data and leave it that.

If you wish to show your bias, your bias will be illustrated.

For the seven millionth time, R2k is a non-partisan polling firm. DKos has nothing to do with running the polls, except for paying R2k. Markos has no incentive to ask R2k to skew the results, and I seriously doubt a respected polling institution like R2k would even do that.

[Zarn]

Respected by who?

[Lunar]

By a lot of people. 

How are you going to come up with a list?  I couldn't come up with a list of people who respect Mason Dixon, my fav firm. 

Anyway, J.J., I think Zogby is in a category of his own since he does not publish his internals and has a history of inconsistency.  R2K, while perhaps with a Democratic bias, does not do either of those two things.  I think their polling data is still valid to use in comparison to other firms, while I do not think the same of Zogby's.  I understand your criticism of R2K's weighting schemes, but you aren't doing anything by being an annoying child every day, everyone gets your position and you are contributing nothing.  This is my last post on the subject but you do make yourself look bad.  I totally get it, R2K isn't a fantastic polling firm, but they have more credibility than Hotline.  They are an average firm, that publishes most of their results, making their results useful to analysts, even though they have a Democratic bias.  They are not a useless Zogby poll.

Personally, I think a better criticism of myself is that I'm often posting the polls that everyone else has already posted, making my own posts useless.  But ideally, if someone is looking for that set of posts, I think its nice for them to be able to scroll through and quickly find it.  When I wake up or get a break during work, I post it, just to add some consistency to the thread. 

[Tender Branson]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Friday, October 17:

Obama: 48.7 (-0.3)
McCain: 43.7 (+0.2)

This latest report includes most of one 24-hour polling cycle that was conducted after the debate. The balance of the three days of survey work included in the rolling average came prior to the debate Wednesday at Hofstra University on Long Island. However, the most recent 24-hour cycle of polling was little changed from the three days of combined data. The one-day total showed Obama with a 3.6% advantage over McCain, while the three-day total showed Obama with a 5.0% edge, 48.7% to 43.7% for McCain.

The one-day sample includes 400 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points, while the three-day rolling average tracking poll includes 1,210 likely voters interviewed Oct. 14-16, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Obama widened his lead among independents, where he wins 52% support, compared to 33% for McCain. The two candidates have been battling to a near-tie each day among men, and today they are tied at 46% each. Among women, Obama leads by 10 points, 52% to 42%. He led by eight points among women yesterday.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1595

[J. J.]

Why don't you cross out the DailyKos poll?

I'm curious what JJ is doing by doing this every day, everyone knows his opinion on the poll already, it seems infantile.

Yep, that's JJ.

Because Lunar insists on putting two bad polls up and treating then differently, because one has an association with a left wing "publication" while the other doesn't.

In other words, if you behave like hacks, you'll be treated hacks. 

Now, Lunar can list them as he does, and they will be fixed.  Or Lunar can post them as just data and leave it that.

If you wish to show your bias, your bias will be illustrated.

For the seven millionth time, R2k is a non-partisan polling firm. DKos has nothing to do with running the polls, except for paying R2k. Markos has no incentive to ask R2k to skew the results, and I seriously doubt a respected polling institution like R2k would even do that.

People "respect" Zogby, probably by "a lot of people."  

The weighting on R2Kos is poor.

Either treat them equally, and let us judge (and you know my judgment of Zogby) or my repairs will continue.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Friday, October 17:

Obama: 48.7 (-0.3)
McCain: 43.7 (+0.2)

This latest report includes most of one 24-hour polling cycle that was conducted after the debate. The balance of the three days of survey work included in the rolling average came prior to the debate Wednesday at Hofstra University on Long Island. However, the most recent 24-hour cycle of polling was little changed from the three days of combined data. The one-day total showed Obama with a 3.6% advantage over McCain, while the three-day total showed Obama with a 5.0% edge, 48.7% to 43.7% for McCain.

The one-day sample includes 400 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points, while the three-day rolling average tracking poll includes 1,210 likely voters interviewed Oct. 14-16, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Obama widened his lead among independents, where he wins 52% support, compared to 33% for McCain. The two candidates have been battling to a near-tie each day among men, and today they are tied at 46% each. Among women, Obama leads by 10 points, 52% to 42%. He led by eight points among women yesterday.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1595

How come this news isn't on Drudge?

[Kalimantan]

Friday October 17

Research 2000 / DailyKos

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 42 (+1)

But whats INTERESTING is that Thursday's sample is McCain's best for ages, O+6, compared to  O+12 and O+10 in the two previous days, suggesting the debate may have been good for McCain.

Unfortunately for JJ, he's not allowed to discuss this result, so perhaps he can talk about Hotline instead:

Friday October 17

Diageo / Hotline

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 40 (-1)

[Zarn]

JJ and I conducted a national poll three days into the future.

Results

McCain 50%
Obama 25%
Undecided 25%

"Internals"

Republican 25%
Democratic 37.5%
"Independent" 37.5%

Men 50%
Women 50%

Other questions:

Do you like Tom Cruise?
Likes Tom Cruise 37.5%
Doesn't like Tom Cruise 50%
Not sure 12.5%

Are you alive or dead?
Alive 75%
Dead 12.5%
Not sure 12.5%

Is disco dead?
Yes 87.5%
No 0%
Not sure 12.5%

We asked 8 adults, who all claimed they were registered or were getting around to it.

We have internals, and are a respected polling institution.

[Zarn]

Friday October 17

Research 2000 / DailyKos

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 42 (+1)

But whats INTERESTING is that Thursday's sample is McCain's best for ages, O+6, compared to  O+12 and O+10 in the two previous days, suggesting the debate may have been good for McCain.

Unfortunately for JJ, he's not allowed to discuss this result, so perhaps he can talk about Hotline instead:

Friday October 17

Diageo / Hotline

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 40 (-1)

This is just further proof that DailyKos is still way out there. They have McCain narrowing the gap, yet he is still way behind. Rasmussen disagrees completely.

[Kalimantan]

JJ and I conducted a national poll three days into the future.

Results

McCain 50%
Obama 25%
Undecided 25%

"Internals"

Republican 25%
Democratic 37.5%
"Independent" 37.5%

Men 50%
Women 50%

Other questions:

Do you like Tom Cruise?
Likes Tom Cruise 37.5%
Doesn't like Tom Cruise 50%
Not sure 12.5%

Are you alive or dead?
Alive 75%
Dead 12.5%
Not sure 12.5%

Is disco dead?
Yes 87.5%
No 0%
Not sure 12.5%

We asked 8 adults, who all claimed they were registered or were getting around to it.

We have internals, and are a respected polling institution.

I don't understand your post. You claimed in another thread you were objective, and then you write this kind of crap. Why don't you save your posts until you have something constructive to add.

[Kalimantan]

This is just further proof that DailyKos is still way out there. They have McCain narrowing the gap, yet he is still way behind. Rasmussen disagrees completely.

Yes, R2K is at the extreme in terms of the overall result.

Any sane person looks at trends in tracking polls. As you can see, the trend in the R2K tracker is the same as in the other polls. So no, Rasmussen does not disagree completely.

[Sam Spade]

GW/Battleground (10/17)
Obama 49 (-1)
McCain 45 (+1)

[J. J.]

Friday October 17

Research 2000 / DailyKos

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 42 (+1)

But whats INTERESTING is that Thursday's sample is McCain's best for ages, O+6, compared to  O+12 and O+10 in the two previous days, suggesting the debate may have been good for McCain.

Unfortunately for JJ, he's not allowed to discuss this result, so perhaps he can talk about Hotline instead:

Friday October 17

Diageo / Hotline

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 40 (-1)

And I'll still treat Kos as I do Zogby.

Hotline is somewhat better poll.

[Zarn]

This is just further proof that DailyKos is still way out there. They have McCain narrowing the gap, yet he is still way behind. Rasmussen disagrees completely.

Yes, R2K is at the extreme in terms of the overall result.

Any sane person looks at trends in tracking polls. As you can see, the trend in the R2K tracker is the same as in the other polls. So no, Rasmussen does not disagree completely.

They don't always go in the same direction. Trends aren't worth much at all. Even the more accurate results need a grain of salt.

[Zarn]

JJ and I conducted a national poll three days into the future.

Results

McCain 50%
Obama 25%
Undecided 25%

"Internals"

Republican 25%
Democratic 37.5%
"Independent" 37.5%

Men 50%
Women 50%

Other questions:

Do you like Tom Cruise?
Likes Tom Cruise 37.5%
Doesn't like Tom Cruise 50%
Not sure 12.5%

Are you alive or dead?
Alive 75%
Dead 12.5%
Not sure 12.5%

Is disco dead?
Yes 87.5%
No 0%
Not sure 12.5%

We asked 8 adults, who all claimed they were registered or were getting around to it.

We have internals, and are a respected polling institution.

I don't understand your post. You claimed in another thread you were objective, and then you write this kind of crap. Why don't you save your posts until you have something constructive to add.

I'm sorry, but people just don't like Tom Cruise as much as you think.

[Kalimantan]

JJ and I conducted a national poll three days into the future.

Results

McCain 50%
Obama 25%
Undecided 25%

"Internals"

Republican 25%
Democratic 37.5%
"Independent" 37.5%

Men 50%
Women 50%

Other questions:

Do you like Tom Cruise?
Likes Tom Cruise 37.5%
Doesn't like Tom Cruise 50%
Not sure 12.5%

Are you alive or dead?
Alive 75%
Dead 12.5%
Not sure 12.5%

Is disco dead?
Yes 87.5%
No 0%
Not sure 12.5%

We asked 8 adults, who all claimed they were registered or were getting around to it.

We have internals, and are a respected polling institution.

I don't understand your post. You claimed in another thread you were objective, and then you write this kind of crap. Why don't you save your posts until you have something constructive to add.

I'm sorry, but people just don't like Tom Cruise as much as you think.

See, now thats funny... well done

But on the post above, of course its the trend that matters, thats why we're here watching the trackers.   But yes, changes from one day to the next are less useful.

[Zarn]

JJ and I conducted a national poll three days into the future.

Results

McCain 50%
Obama 25%
Undecided 25%

"Internals"

Republican 25%
Democratic 37.5%
"Independent" 37.5%

Men 50%
Women 50%

Other questions:

Do you like Tom Cruise?
Likes Tom Cruise 37.5%
Doesn't like Tom Cruise 50%
Not sure 12.5%

Are you alive or dead?
Alive 75%
Dead 12.5%
Not sure 12.5%

Is disco dead?
Yes 87.5%
No 0%
Not sure 12.5%

We asked 8 adults, who all claimed they were registered or were getting around to it.

We have internals, and are a respected polling institution.

I don't understand your post. You claimed in another thread you were objective, and then you write this kind of crap. Why don't you save your posts until you have something constructive to add.

I'm sorry, but people just don't like Tom Cruise as much as you think.

See, now thats funny... well done

But on the post above, of course its the trend that matters, thats why we're here watching the trackers.   But yes, changes from one day to the next are less useful.

Ah, but couldn't you also attribute that to Zogby's trends?

[Kalimantan]

I think I probably would - again with the knowledge that no poll exists in a vacuum. Hey, I love all polls, whatever the Uni, however much of a crappy leaked internal. I just don't think disco is dead, thats all.

[TheGlobalizer]

How are you going to come up with a list?  I couldn't come up with a list of people who respect Mason Dixon, my fav firm. 

I respect Mason-Dixon.

[Lunar]

You mean I have to poll the forum to find this list?  mmm


Anyway, here's TPM's update:

• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.  Note for all of you visiting the forum for the first time, some legitimate people, and some children, don't like R2K's weighting scheme, so take the results with a grain of salt.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.