Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Drudge leaked tomorrow's Zogby numbers (if anyone actually cares)...

Obama 49%
McCain 43%

[Sam Spade]

Drudge leaked tomorrow's Zogby numbers (if anyone actually cares)...

Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Zogby certainly does...

[J. J.]

Drudge leaked tomorrow's Zogby numbers (if anyone actually cares)...

Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Zogby certainly does...

Now if Dudge would leak Rasmussen's numbers, I'd be interested.

[Tender Branson]

Drudge leaked tomorrow's Zogby numbers (if anyone actually cares)...

Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Confirmed:

Tuesday - October 14:

Obama 49.0% (+1.1)
McCain 42.8% (-0.8 )

Obama's overall edge is linked to his strong performance among independent voters, where he retains a substantial 17-point lead. Both Obama and McCain continue to do well in winning support from voters in their own respective parties - Obama wins 86% support from Democrats and McCain wins 87% support from Republicans.

Obama leads McCain by a statistically insignificant one point among men, and also leads among women by 11 points.Among those voters who said they have registered to vote in the last six months, Obama leads McCain by a 53% to 37% margin.

Among those who have already voted - about seven percent of the sample - Obama leads by a 52% to 42% edge over McCain.

[Tender Branson]

If McCain can't close the gap among Independents, he's pretty much f****d.

[Verily]

Ah, Battleground, you amuse me.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_101408_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

Obama: 53 (+2)
McCain: 40 (-3)

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Ah, Battleground, you amuse me.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_101408_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

Obama: 53 (+2)
McCain: 40 (-3)

maybe he's just predicting the PV on Nov 4th

[J. J.]

Hotline 10/14/08

Obama 48 (nc)

McCain 42 (nc)

[Lunar]

• Gallup*: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

[J. J.]

• Gallup*: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

Fixed

[Lunar]

• Gallup*: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

Fixed

Stop that.  They're a respectable poll with a slight democratic bias.  In fact, you CITE their numbers in your arguments in other threads!  I get how you feel about it, but you're not contributing anything by doing that repeatedly.

[J. J.]

• Gallup*: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

Fixed

Stop that.  They're a respectable poll with a slight democratic bias.  In fact, you CITE their numbers in your arguments in other threads!  I get how you feel about it, but you're not contributing anything by doing that repeatedly.

As has been pointed out from the start, they have a very bad weighting, even though they showed a gain for McCain.

[Sam Spade]

The Daily Kos poll is questionable in my view, and will always be questionable.

[Lunar]

The Daily Kos poll is questionable in my view, and will always be questionable.

Indeed, it is consistently the most favorable poll to the Dems by a large margin.  But it's a reasonable respectable institution, unike Zogby.  I reserve the strike-out for proven idiocy only.

[Sam Spade]

The Daily Kos poll is questionable in my view, and will always be questionable.

Indeed, it is consistently the most favorable poll to the Dems by a large margin.  But it's a reasonable respectable institution, unike Zogby.  I reserve the strike-out for proven idiocy only.

You know, Zogby, although he's an idiot, has gotten things correct before.  We might call it luck, but a broken clock is right twice a day.

I can't legitimately call Daily Kos a reasonably respectable institution, even though I know that's not what you're talking about.

[Lunar]

The Daily Kos poll is questionable in my view, and will always be questionable.

Indeed, it is consistently the most favorable poll to the Dems by a large margin.  But it's a reasonable respectable institution, unike Zogby.  I reserve the strike-out for proven idiocy only.

You know, Zogby, although he's an idiot, has gotten things correct before.  We might call it luck, but a broken clock is right twice a day.

I can't legitimately call Daily Kos a reasonably respectable institution, even though I know that's not what you're talking about.

If you knew what I was talking about, why'd you say that then?   

Zogby does get some things right, his 6% today could be right on.  I still don't think his numbers are useful for us.  R2000 is what a Democratic surge would look like, roughly...

[J. J.]

The Daily Kos poll is questionable in my view, and will always be questionable.

Indeed, it is consistently the most favorable poll to the Dems by a large margin.  But it's a reasonable respectable institution, unike Zogby.  I reserve the strike-out for proven idiocy only.

You know, Zogby, although he's an idiot, has gotten things correct before.  We might call it luck, but a broken clock is right twice a day.

I can't legitimately call Daily Kos a reasonably respectable institution, even though I know that's not what you're talking about.

If you knew what I was talking about, why'd you say that then?   

Zogby does get some things right, his 6% today could be right on.  I still don't think his numbers are useful for us.  R2000 is what a Democratic surge would look like, roughly...

Then why use it, if it isn't accurate.  Crap is still crap, even if it shows the Democrats going downward.

[Lunar]

I'm not "using" it, but the firm has at least an average track record and publish all of their crosstabs.  It's not Zogby.

[J. J.]

I'm not "using" it, but the firm has at least an average track record and publish all of their crosstabs.  It's not Zogby.

Well, if you are going to strike through Zogby, strike through R2000.

[Sam Spade]

ZOGBY WEDNESDAY

OBAMA 48.2%, MCCAIN 44.4%... NOT SURE 7.4%... DEVELOPING...

[Rowan]

Can someone answer me something? How can Zogby be done polling when it is only 4:48 on the west coast? I really don't understand.

[Sam Spade]

Can someone answer me something? How can Zogby be done polling when it is only 4:48 on the west coast? I really don't understand.

It's Zogby.  He can poll anywhere, anytime.  Including before it actually happens. 

Guess what - these are actually next Saturday's numbers!!!!!!

[J. J.]

ZOGBY

WEDNESDAY

OBAMA 48.2%, MCCAIN 44.4%... NOT SURE 7.4%... DEVELOPING...

Fixed. 

[J. J.]

TIPP Tuesday 10/13/08

Obama     45 (nc)

McCain     42 (-1)

[ChrisFromNJ]

What is the party ID weighting for this Zogby poll?