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Author Topic: Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread  (Read 80864 times)
Verily
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« Reply #75 on: October 14, 2008, 07:35:52 pm »
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Quote from: You are a Gentleman and a Scholar on October 14, 2008, 07:28:52 pm
What is the party ID weighting for this Zogby poll?

Weighting? Zogby doesn't need weighting.
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Lunar
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« Reply #76 on: October 14, 2008, 07:38:59 pm »
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Quote from: Verily on October 14, 2008, 07:35:52 pm
Quote from: You are a Gentleman and a Scholar on October 14, 2008, 07:28:52 pm
What is the party ID weighting for this Zogby poll?

Weighting? Zogby doesn't need weighting.



the bullets are weighting
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J. J.
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« Reply #77 on: October 14, 2008, 07:40:44 pm »
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Quote from: Verily on October 14, 2008, 07:35:52 pm
Quote from: You are a Gentleman and a Scholar on October 14, 2008, 07:28:52 pm
What is the party ID weighting for this Zogby poll?

Weighting? Zogby doesn't need weighting.

The claim that they do, but I couldn't find it.

I did stumble on to their secret:  www.llewellyn.com/free/tarot.php
« Last Edit: October 14, 2008, 07:52:58 pm by J. J. »Logged
J. J.

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jmfcst
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« Reply #78 on: October 14, 2008, 07:50:17 pm »
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tell me again why that N-Y-M dude made us resort to a generic thread for random polls? 

I CAN'T FIND ANYTHING!
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #79 on: October 14, 2008, 09:43:04 pm »
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Quote from: You are a Gentleman and a Scholar on October 14, 2008, 07:28:52 pm
What is the party ID weighting for this Zogby poll?

Pretty sure it's 38D-36R-26I, the numbers for the 2006 exit poll.  Could be as much as D+4, but it's not even.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #80 on: October 15, 2008, 09:16:26 am »
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Hotline - Oct. 15
Obama 49% (+1)
McCain 41% (-1)

GW Battleground - Oct. 15
Obama 51% (-2)
McCain 43% (+3)

...bumpy...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #81 on: October 15, 2008, 09:18:28 am »
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Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Wednesday, October 15:

Obama: 48.2 (-0.8 )
McCain: 44.4 (+1.6 )

R2000/DailyKos - Wednesday, October 15:

Obama: 52 (nc)
McCain: 41 (nc)
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Lunar
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« Reply #82 on: October 15, 2008, 12:53:01 pm »
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• Gallup*: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

from TPM
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« Reply #83 on: October 15, 2008, 02:08:52 pm »
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Quote from: Lunar on October 15, 2008, 12:53:01 pm
• Gallup*: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

from TPM

Fixed.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
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"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #84 on: October 15, 2008, 03:33:38 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on October 15, 2008, 02:08:52 pm
Fixed.

LOL.  Ornery cuss.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #85 on: October 15, 2008, 03:57:56 pm »
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IBD/TIPP - October 15, 2008
Obama 45 (nc)
McCain 42 (nc)

RCP provides us a nice table of the poll here.  Also looks like they've shortened it to a six day poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY3.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #86 on: October 16, 2008, 12:01:29 am »
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Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Thursday, October 16:

Obama: 49.0 (+0.8 )
McCain: 43.5 (-0.9 )

Obama leads among independents, 49% to 35%, a gain over yesterday, where the rolling average had him ahead among that demographic group by 8 points. The rest of the independent voters - 16% - were either undecided or favored another candidate. Both candidates continue to perform well among their respective party members.

The two candidates have been battling to a near tie each day among men, and today Obama holds a slight two-point advantage. McCain led in this group yesterday, but only by one point. Among women, Obama leads by eight points, 51% to 43%.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1590
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Rowan
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« Reply #87 on: October 16, 2008, 07:42:50 am »
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Zogby polls you while you sleep. Zogby can read your brain.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #88 on: October 16, 2008, 09:01:13 am »
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Diageo Hotline Poll (10/16)
Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 41% (nc)
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #89 on: October 16, 2008, 09:07:06 am »
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GW/Battleground (10/16)
Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 44 (+1)
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #90 on: October 16, 2008, 10:54:39 am »
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DK/R2000 Poll (10/16)
Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 41 (nc)
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Lunar
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« Reply #91 on: October 16, 2008, 01:08:03 pm »
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TPM's summation:

• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
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Zarn
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« Reply #92 on: October 16, 2008, 01:14:18 pm »
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Why don't you cross out the DailyKos poll?
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J. J.
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« Reply #93 on: October 16, 2008, 01:47:53 pm »
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Quote from: Lunar on October 16, 2008, 01:08:03 pm
TPM's summation:

• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

Fixed, and post the Battleground results as well (and consider drawing a line through it as well).
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Lunar
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« Reply #94 on: October 16, 2008, 02:04:54 pm »
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Quote from: Zarn on October 16, 2008, 01:14:18 pm
Why don't you cross out the DailyKos poll?

Because it's a legitimate firm with just some consistent weighting issues, but makes them all available by fully publishing all of its crosstabs.

Battelground I don't post because it's not on TPM, obv.  I'm curious what JJ is doing by doing this every day, everyone knows his opinion on the poll already, it seems infantile.
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« Reply #95 on: October 16, 2008, 02:13:34 pm »
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Awesome sig pic, Lunar.
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J. J.
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« Reply #96 on: October 16, 2008, 02:37:33 pm »
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Quote from: Lunar on October 16, 2008, 02:04:54 pm
Quote from: Zarn on October 16, 2008, 01:14:18 pm
Why don't you cross out the DailyKos poll?

Because it's a legitimate firm with just some consistent weighting issues, but makes them all available by fully publishing all of its crosstabs.

Battelground I don't post because it's not on TPM, obv.  I'm curious what JJ is doing by doing this every day, everyone knows his opinion on the poll already, it seems infantile.


Because you misrepresent when you discount Zogby and include Kos without it.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
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« Reply #97 on: October 16, 2008, 05:03:15 pm »
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TIPP says the same margin, but it's not completely up yet.  24% undecided.

Edit:  that might be 24% of independents undecided.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2008, 05:05:49 pm by J. J. »Logged
J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
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« Reply #98 on: October 16, 2008, 07:15:15 pm »
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TIPP, Thursday, October 15, 2008

Obama      45 (nc)

McCain      42 (nc)

You might want to look at the 18-24 group.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309042090194597
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Sam Spade
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« Reply #99 on: October 16, 2008, 07:29:01 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on October 16, 2008, 07:15:15 pm
TIPP, Thursday, October 15, 2008

Obama      45 (nc)

McCain      42 (nc)

You might want to look at the 18-24 group.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309042090194597

It's called MOE.  Two days ago it was 74-21 Obama.  The total number of 18-24 voters is unlikely to be more than 100 in this poll - probably less.
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