Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Lunar]

Poor idea

no it was my idea and it's good

[Lunar]

I'll steal TPM's posts every day on the subject:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

[Lunar]

Sorry just woke up.

• Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-42% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 50%-40% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 53%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

[Lunar]

Um, R2000 is not Zogby.   R2000 is a respectable firm with Democratic bias.  I would certainly consider R2000  to be better than the unknown Hotline poll.

Zogby has no consistency or reliability.

[Lunar]

So?  They aren't a pollster to discard, unlike Zogby, who does not publish his internals and is not consistent.  Zogby is only posted because the media will observe it while I think R2000's results are in themselves interesting.

[Lunar]

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 53%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

[Lunar]

13% undecided with three weeks to go?  Not sure why McCain's 9 point lead among investors is "good news" unless placed in the context of partisan identification...

[Lunar]

13% undecided with three weeks to go?  Not sure why McCain's 9 point lead among investors is "good news" unless placed in the context of partisan identification...

The way they define "investors," $10K in the market, it basically includes suburbanites and those with 401K's. 

TIPP had good track record in 2000 and an even better one in 2004.

Oh, I'm not trashing the pollster.  I'm just not sure if that 9% is a good thing or bad thing for Obama.  If the investor number normally breaks 25% for the GOP and this year it's only 9%, that's a good thing, yaddamean?

And despite being a good pollster, that's a disturbingly high MoE, making it hard to infer much except that Obama is getting a lot of support that could perhaps be pushed into supporting him.

[Lunar]

13% undecided with three weeks to go?  Not sure why McCain's 9 point lead among investors is "good news" unless placed in the context of partisan identification...

The way they define "investors," $10K in the market, it basically includes suburbanites and those with 401K's. 

TIPP had good track record in 2000 and an even better one in 2004.

Oh, I'm not trashing the pollster.  I'm just not sure if that 9% is a good thing or bad thing for Obama.  If the investor number normally breaks 25% for the GOP and this year it's only 9%, that's a good thing, yaddamean?

Considering the market and the number of investors, I'm happy with it.

But what if that margin is normally 40%?  It's a very Republican-skewed demographic.  I'm not saying it's THAT skewed, but it actually be bad news in disguise or completely neutral news.

[Lunar]

• Gallup*: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

[Lunar]

• Gallup*: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

Fixed

Stop that.  They're a respectable poll with a slight democratic bias.  In fact, you CITE their numbers in your arguments in other threads!  I get how you feel about it, but you're not contributing anything by doing that repeatedly.

[Lunar]

The Daily Kos poll is questionable in my view, and will always be questionable.

Indeed, it is consistently the most favorable poll to the Dems by a large margin.  But it's a reasonable respectable institution, unike Zogby.  I reserve the strike-out for proven idiocy only.

[Lunar]

The Daily Kos poll is questionable in my view, and will always be questionable.

Indeed, it is consistently the most favorable poll to the Dems by a large margin.  But it's a reasonable respectable institution, unike Zogby.  I reserve the strike-out for proven idiocy only.

You know, Zogby, although he's an idiot, has gotten things correct before.  We might call it luck, but a broken clock is right twice a day.

I can't legitimately call Daily Kos a reasonably respectable institution, even though I know that's not what you're talking about.

If you knew what I was talking about, why'd you say that then?   

Zogby does get some things right, his 6% today could be right on.  I still don't think his numbers are useful for us.  R2000 is what a Democratic surge would look like, roughly...

[Lunar]

I'm not "using" it, but the firm has at least an average track record and publish all of their crosstabs.  It's not Zogby.

[Lunar]

What is the party ID weighting for this Zogby poll?

Weighting? Zogby doesn't need weighting.

the bullets are weighting

[Lunar]

• Gallup*: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

from TPM

[Lunar]

TPM's summation:

• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

[Lunar]

Why don't you cross out the DailyKos poll?

Because it's a legitimate firm with just some consistent weighting issues, but makes them all available by fully publishing all of its crosstabs.

Battelground I don't post because it's not on TPM, obv.  I'm curious what JJ is doing by doing this every day, everyone knows his opinion on the poll already, it seems infantile.

[Lunar]

By a lot of people. 

How are you going to come up with a list?  I couldn't come up with a list of people who respect Mason Dixon, my fav firm. 

Anyway, J.J., I think Zogby is in a category of his own since he does not publish his internals and has a history of inconsistency.  R2K, while perhaps with a Democratic bias, does not do either of those two things.  I think their polling data is still valid to use in comparison to other firms, while I do not think the same of Zogby's.  I understand your criticism of R2K's weighting schemes, but you aren't doing anything by being an annoying child every day, everyone gets your position and you are contributing nothing.  This is my last post on the subject but you do make yourself look bad.  I totally get it, R2K isn't a fantastic polling firm, but they have more credibility than Hotline.  They are an average firm, that publishes most of their results, making their results useful to analysts, even though they have a Democratic bias.  They are not a useless Zogby poll.

Personally, I think a better criticism of myself is that I'm often posting the polls that everyone else has already posted, making my own posts useless.  But ideally, if someone is looking for that set of posts, I think its nice for them to be able to scroll through and quickly find it.  When I wake up or get a break during work, I post it, just to add some consistency to the thread. 

[Lunar]

You mean I have to poll the forum to find this list?  mmm


Anyway, here's TPM's update:

• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.  Note for all of you visiting the forum for the first time, some legitimate people, and some children, don't like R2K's weighting scheme, so take the results with a grain of salt.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

[Lunar]

Lunar, why is Gallup wrong? It says 50-43 not 51-45...

unless im totally missing something.

I think you are.

RV

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV (expanded)

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 45 (nc)

LV (traditional)

Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 47 (nc)

[Lunar]

RCP (for what its worth) says -5.0

Does that include Zogby and Kos.

Zogby, not Kos.

FWIW -

Rasmussen O+6 (O+1)
Gallup O+3/O+7 (O+1/O+3)
Hotline O+7 (nc)
IBD/TIPP O+5 (M+2)
Zogby O+3 (M+1)
Kos O+7 (nc)
GW/Battleground O+4 (old)

Average:  O+5.29

You would think with the huge Obama money advantage, the market woes, and the general environment for Republicans, Obama would be up by a lot more then 5.

If McCain could pick up another 2 points in the average, election day could be interesting.  I'm not betting on it or expecting it though.

The should be argument is ridiculous.  I could say that running against a liberal black guy during a time of war, a moderate war hero should be up too.  Usually these arguments are made by ridiculous partisans spinning the facts

[Lunar]

Hotline doesn't have the track record of R2Kos, but if the weighting was fixed, I'd rank with Hotline.

Eh?  Hotline has the same track record as a national poll, and less as a state poll.

I don't remember Hotline from 2004?

exactly.

[Lunar]

Not even this one?

[Lunar]

After the ten point movement the last four days, I am willing to bet even money that Zogby shows McCain within a couple of points or even ahead sometime before the election.

I think the odds are 9:1 that Zogby shows McCain ahead one time in the next two weeks, so I'm not sure if you'd be getting your money's worth