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Author Topic: Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread  (Read 141972 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: October 11, 2008, 11:35:31 AM »
Diageo/Hotline: Saturday, October 11

Obama: 50 (+2)
McCain: 40 (-1)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2008, 11:40:17 AM »
Seems like Diageo, Rasmussen and Gallup had a bad sample in the last days and now they are settling at 7-8% again.

Zogby is a bit fake, just like Dailykos/R2000 because Zogby uses 38% DEM, 36% GOP and 26% IND in their daily sample, whereas R2000 shows 35%DEM, 30% IND, 26%GOP and 9% "Others".
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2008, 12:16:31 AM »
Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Sunday, October 12:

Obama: 48.9 (+1.3)
McCain: 42.8 (-1.0)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2008, 07:40:42 AM »
R2000/DailyKos - Sunday, October 12:

Obama: 53 (+1)
McCain: 40 (nc)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2008, 12:00:30 AM »
Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Monday, October 13:

Obama: 47.9 (-1.0)
McCain: 43.6 (+0.8 )
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2008, 12:27:10 AM »
Just to illustrate what a difference in party composition means:

Zogby has Obama leading by 17 among Independents in today's release, yet has him only ahead by 4 overall. Zogby uses 38% DEM, 36% REP and 26% IND.

Dailykos has Obama up 10 among Independents, but he leads by 13 overall.

Rasmussen shows Obama up by 8 among Independents and up by 6 overall.

I don't know what Rasmussen's party breakdown is, but because of the fact that both Obama and McCain lead 86-12 in their own parties, it's most likely that Rasmussen uses 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2008, 11:57:42 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 13, 2008, 11:32:50 PM
Drudge leaked tomorrow's Zogby numbers (if anyone actually cares)...

Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Confirmed:

Tuesday - October 14:

Obama 49.0% (+1.1)
McCain 42.8% (-0.8 )

Obama's overall edge is linked to his strong performance among independent voters, where he retains a substantial 17-point lead. Both Obama and McCain continue to do well in winning support from voters in their own respective parties - Obama wins 86% support from Democrats and McCain wins 87% support from Republicans.

Obama leads McCain by a statistically insignificant one point among men, and also leads among women by 11 points.Among those voters who said they have registered to vote in the last six months, Obama leads McCain by a 53% to 37% margin.

Among those who have already voted - about seven percent of the sample - Obama leads by a 52% to 42% edge over McCain.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2008, 11:59:50 PM »
If McCain can't close the gap among Independents, he's pretty much f****d.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2008, 09:18:28 AM »
Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Wednesday, October 15:

Obama: 48.2 (-0.8 )
McCain: 44.4 (+1.6 )

R2000/DailyKos - Wednesday, October 15:

Obama: 52 (nc)
McCain: 41 (nc)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2008, 12:01:29 AM »
Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Thursday, October 16:

Obama: 49.0 (+0.8 )
McCain: 43.5 (-0.9 )

Obama leads among independents, 49% to 35%, a gain over yesterday, where the rolling average had him ahead among that demographic group by 8 points. The rest of the independent voters - 16% - were either undecided or favored another candidate. Both candidates continue to perform well among their respective party members.

The two candidates have been battling to a near tie each day among men, and today Obama holds a slight two-point advantage. McCain led in this group yesterday, but only by one point. Among women, Obama leads by eight points, 51% to 43%.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1590
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2008, 12:03:04 AM »
Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Friday, October 17:

Obama: 48.7 (-0.3)
McCain: 43.7 (+0.2)

This latest report includes most of one 24-hour polling cycle that was conducted after the debate. The balance of the three days of survey work included in the rolling average came prior to the debate Wednesday at Hofstra University on Long Island. However, the most recent 24-hour cycle of polling was little changed from the three days of combined data. The one-day total showed Obama with a 3.6% advantage over McCain, while the three-day total showed Obama with a 5.0% edge, 48.7% to 43.7% for McCain.

The one-day sample includes 400 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points, while the three-day rolling average tracking poll includes 1,210 likely voters interviewed Oct. 14-16, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Obama widened his lead among independents, where he wins 52% support, compared to 33% for McCain. The two candidates have been battling to a near-tie each day among men, and today they are tied at 46% each. Among women, Obama leads by 10 points, 52% to 42%. He led by eight points among women yesterday.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1595
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2008, 11:59:24 PM »
Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Saturday, October 18:

Obama: 48.3 (-0.4)
McCain: 44.4 (+0.7)

Obama leads by 16 points among independent voters, winning 51% support to McCain's 35%. McCain has improved his support among his own party - 91% of Republicans are supporting him, compared to 88% of Democrats who support Obama.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1596
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2008, 12:02:40 AM »
Quote from: Verily on October 18, 2008, 12:01:14 AM
Okay, Zogby must just be making numbers up. Obama leads by 16 points among independents and 4 points overall?

They are not making it up, but instead they are using a 38D, 36R, 26I sample.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2008, 12:44:04 AM »
Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Sunday, October 19:

Obama: 47.8 (-0.5)
McCain: 45.1 (+0.7)

McCain made a big move Saturday among independent voters, cutting's Obama lead from 16 points to just 8 points. Now, Obama leads by a 46% to 38% margin, with the balance of independents either unsure or supporting someone else.

Both candidates have remained strong among their political bases - McCain wins 90% of Republicans, compared to 88% of Democrats who support Obama.

Men are now, again, tilting very slightly in favor of McCain, who leads by just two percentage points among the group. Among women, Obama leads, but only by six points.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1597
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2008, 09:20:19 AM »
The consensus is Obama by 5-8 now.

If we re-weight Zogby, where Obama leads by 8 among Independents, they would also show Obama ahead by 5/6 points.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2008, 12:06:58 PM »
Quote from: Zarn on October 19, 2008, 10:37:40 AM
RCP (for what its worth) says -5.0

Yes, because they have thrown out all of the (older) non-tracking polls from their average.

With today's Gallup numbers it will increase to about 6%, especially if we include R2000 as well.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2008, 11:55:03 PM »

18-24 year olds voting for McCain by 10 points ?

A tied South ? What the hell is their definition of "South" ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2008, 12:01:07 AM »
The Powell-Boost:

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Monday, October 20:

Obama: 50 (+2)
McCain: 44 (-1)

Obama leads among independent voters by a 49% to 38% margin, adding three points to his advantage over McCain. Both candidates have remained strong among their political bases – McCain wins 88% of Republicans, compared to 89% of Democrats who support Obama.

Men are now slightly favoring Obama, who leads by just two percentage points among the group – yesterday’s report showed McCain with a two-point lead among men. Obama leads by eight points among women.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1598
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2008, 12:10:37 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2008, 12:16:12 AM by Tender Branson »

I suspect it's either a slight Powell and Fundraising bounce, or a few bad Obama-samples dropping out today. I think it's the latter ...

BTW: According to the Reuters News release, McCain leads 53-40 among Whites.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2008, 11:59:16 PM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 20, 2008, 11:58:31 PM
Zogster
Obama 50.3%(+.5)
McCain 42.4%(-2)

Obama leads McCain by 15 points among independent voters (50% to 35%), and is also winning 12% of the Republican vote, all the while retaining a firm grip on his Democratic base, winning 87% support from members of his own party. McCain wins 84% of the Republican vote.

Obama leads by 21 points among those who have already voted, and also maintains a large lead among those who have registered to vote just in the last six months. He leads by two points among men and by 13 among women. He also leads in all but one age demographic - those aged 55-69 - where McCain has a scant one-point edge.

Obama leads 55% to 40% among Catholics, while McCain leads by a 53% to 41% margin among Protestants. McCain also leads among those who consider themselves to be Born Again, or Evangelicals.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2008, 12:37:37 AM »
Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Wednesday, October 22:

Obama: 52 (+2)
McCain: 42 (nc)

“Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans. Obama wins 85% support from Democrats, and 11% of Republicans. McCain wins 83% of the Republican vote, and 10% of the Democratic vote.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1604
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2008, 12:15:29 AM »
Quote from: Reds4 on October 23, 2008, 12:07:31 AM
Zogby says:

Obama 52.2% McCain 40.3%


I think Obama may have some momentum, but zogby's numbers are certainly looking nutty.

Hmm. Zogby must be taking something. Obama leads by almost 30 with Independents ? Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2008, 12:13:49 AM »
Zogby

Obama: 51 (-1)
McCain: 41 (+1)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2008, 11:54:28 PM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 24, 2008, 11:53:17 PM
Zogster
Obama 51.1%(-.2)
McCain 41.6%(+.6)

McSurge among Independents ! Obama's lead is down from 26 points to 16 ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2008, 12:26:52 AM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 26, 2008, 12:03:46 AM
Zogster
Obama 49.4%(-1.7)
McCain 44.1%(+2.5)

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL Zogby, you want to be in the news, right ?!
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