Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[TheGlobalizer]

Fixed.

LOL.  Ornery cuss.

[TheGlobalizer]

Awesome sig pic, Lunar.

[TheGlobalizer]

How are you going to come up with a list?  I couldn't come up with a list of people who respect Mason Dixon, my fav firm. 

I respect Mason-Dixon.

[TheGlobalizer]

RCP (for what its worth) says -5.0

I'd say the truth is around O+4, based on LV sampling skews.  Trending ever-so-slowly downward.

[TheGlobalizer]

GWBattleground - 10/21
Obama 48
McCain 47

The Freeps found their new favorite poll.

Zogby last wekk, Battleground this week.

Who will it be next week?

GW/Battleground leans R.  They've been 2-4 points redder than the field a number of times in the past few months.

[TheGlobalizer]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Wednesday, October 22:

Obama: 52 (+2)
McCain: 42 (nc)

“Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans. Obama wins 85% support from Democrats, and 11% of Republicans. McCain wins 83% of the Republican vote, and 10% of the Democratic vote.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1604

Zogby should just give up the pretense and start writing fiction novels.

[TheGlobalizer]

IBD/TIPP
Obama 45.7%(-1.2)
McCain 42.0%(+1.1)

The sample that dropped off today looked like a bit of an outlier, imho.

Yeah, this poll was buried by that one sample.

[TheGlobalizer]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Wednesday, October 22:

Obama: 52 (+2)
McCain: 42 (nc)

“Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans. Obama wins 85% support from Democrats, and 11% of Republicans. McCain wins 83% of the Republican vote, and 10% of the Democratic vote.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1604

Zogby should just give up the pretense and start writing fiction novels.

Why?  Kos has the market for that sown up.

I thought you'd be a fan of some free-market competition...

[TheGlobalizer]

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/23
Obama 48% (+1)
McCain 43% (+1)

GWBattleground - 10/23
Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 45% (-2)

This is where I see the race today.  Not commenting on the internals, just the topline.

[TheGlobalizer]

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/23
Obama 48% (+1)
McCain 43% (+1)

GWBattleground - 10/23
Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 45% (-2)

This is where I see the race today.  Not commenting on the internals, just the topline.

Why is that?  Because those are the two most friendly ones for McCain??

Yes, because I'm a crook like everyone else who isn't on the Obama lovefest bandwagon.

[TheGlobalizer]

IBD/TIPP
Obama 44.8%
McCain 43.7%

Ut ohh...

=

[TheGlobalizer]

Yeah, I think we throw out the sample.  It's buggered.

[TheGlobalizer]

Um, that's not true.  You can still calculate a Margin of Error for a (relatively) small sample size, and apply it.  The MoE is higher.  It isn't high enough to make that result not highly suspicious.

MOE = 150%

[TheGlobalizer]

Thanks for the daily tracker...tracker, Sam.

^^^ Ditto, it's very convenient.

Concur.

[TheGlobalizer]

Zogster
Obama 51.1%(-.2)
McCain 41.6%(+.6)

MoE +/- 25%

lol

[TheGlobalizer]

Zogby last three individual nights:
Thursday Obama 49%- McCain 42%
Friday Obama 50%- McCain 45%
Saturday Obama 49%- McCain 46%

ELECTION SHOCKER: MCCAIN SURGING

If trends continue, McCain projected to win by 15%+.

[TheGlobalizer]

I think McCain is closing ever-so-slightly.  Not enough to get excited about, though.

[TheGlobalizer]

I think J.J. is just saying that pro-McCain movement on a pro-D-weighted poll is good news for McCain supporters, not making an attribution of accuracy because the numbers favor his candidate.

A trend on a bad poll is not necessarily as easily dismissed as the poll itself, particularly when the concern is a political lean in the numbers, not poor overall methodology.

Me, I just toss R2K and move on.  I'm mostly sticking to Rasmussen, Gallup, and TIPP at this point, though I really want to give Battleground a big hug.

[TheGlobalizer]

IBD/TIPP - October 29, 2008
Obama 46.9% (-0.8 )
McCain 43.9% (+0.2)
Undecided 9.2% (+0.6)

Wow, Obama under 47?  9.2% undecided?

[TheGlobalizer]

IBP/TIPP has, um, 'corrected' their process:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Clicky

I personally think he's making some amateur pollster mistakes in 'correcting' his poll.  It's a little Zogbyian, but make your own decisions.

Certainly explains that bizarro "McCain winning huge among young voters" number.

[TheGlobalizer]

Nah.  That was their attempt to correct it.  Basically, they'd been getting a weirdly low number of youth voters in their polls.  They ignored it, until the sample shifted to being ridiculously McCain.  To fix this, they started applying a non-random sample to meet quotas.  Basically, he ignored a methodological flaw until it started showing up, and then applied a non-random solution.  It's shoddy pollster behavior.

What I meant was that what you quoted indicated why the numbers were screwy (in that much-highlighted chart last week) in the first place -- extremely low sample sizes.

I'm not enough of a stats guy to get into the fix side of things.

[TheGlobalizer]

What I meant was that what you quoted indicated why the numbers were screwy (in that much-highlighted chart last week) in the first place -- extremely low sample sizes.

I'm not enough of a stats guy to get into the fix side of things.

What happened is they took a screwy sample size and weighted it higher.  That makes it less likely to be indicative of bad methodology, because the raw sample was smaller.  On the other hand, the pollster literally just proved their methodology is bad when they tried to "fix" it.  The problem is, the initial tiny sample size is indicative of a methodological problem.  They essentially outright admitted they had one, and then they de-randomized their sample to fix it.  Bad juju.

It was indicative of some problem in methodology -- that problem was undersampling, which cannot be fixed by drastically overweighting a tiny sample, especially when that sample was wrong.  I was right, J. J. wasn't.  I am King of the Mountain, bring me your women.

So why don't they just go out and get more 18-24s?  Or am I missing some geeky pollster sh** that allows a poll to be valid without actually polling people? 

[TheGlobalizer]

I heard he's a Nazi.

Isn't that a requirement?

[TheGlobalizer]

You're confusing the Catholic church with the Republican party.

The Catholic church has done far more to aid Nazism in this world than the Republicans could ever hope to.

[TheGlobalizer]

WP = Obama codpiece