Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Kalimantan]

Poor idea

[Kalimantan]

Friday October 17

Research 2000 / DailyKos

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 42 (+1)

But whats INTERESTING is that Thursday's sample is McCain's best for ages, O+6, compared to  O+12 and O+10 in the two previous days, suggesting the debate may have been good for McCain.

Unfortunately for JJ, he's not allowed to discuss this result, so perhaps he can talk about Hotline instead:

Friday October 17

Diageo / Hotline

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 40 (-1)

[Kalimantan]

JJ and I conducted a national poll three days into the future.

Results

McCain 50%
Obama 25%
Undecided 25%

"Internals"

Republican 25%
Democratic 37.5%
"Independent" 37.5%

Men 50%
Women 50%

Other questions:

Do you like Tom Cruise?
Likes Tom Cruise 37.5%
Doesn't like Tom Cruise 50%
Not sure 12.5%

Are you alive or dead?
Alive 75%
Dead 12.5%
Not sure 12.5%

Is disco dead?
Yes 87.5%
No 0%
Not sure 12.5%

We asked 8 adults, who all claimed they were registered or were getting around to it.

We have internals, and are a respected polling institution.

I don't understand your post. You claimed in another thread you were objective, and then you write this kind of crap. Why don't you save your posts until you have something constructive to add.

[Kalimantan]

This is just further proof that DailyKos is still way out there. They have McCain narrowing the gap, yet he is still way behind. Rasmussen disagrees completely.

Yes, R2K is at the extreme in terms of the overall result.

Any sane person looks at trends in tracking polls. As you can see, the trend in the R2K tracker is the same as in the other polls. So no, Rasmussen does not disagree completely.

[Kalimantan]

JJ and I conducted a national poll three days into the future.

Results

McCain 50%
Obama 25%
Undecided 25%

"Internals"

Republican 25%
Democratic 37.5%
"Independent" 37.5%

Men 50%
Women 50%

Other questions:

Do you like Tom Cruise?
Likes Tom Cruise 37.5%
Doesn't like Tom Cruise 50%
Not sure 12.5%

Are you alive or dead?
Alive 75%
Dead 12.5%
Not sure 12.5%

Is disco dead?
Yes 87.5%
No 0%
Not sure 12.5%

We asked 8 adults, who all claimed they were registered or were getting around to it.

We have internals, and are a respected polling institution.

I don't understand your post. You claimed in another thread you were objective, and then you write this kind of crap. Why don't you save your posts until you have something constructive to add.

I'm sorry, but people just don't like Tom Cruise as much as you think.

See, now thats funny... well done

But on the post above, of course its the trend that matters, thats why we're here watching the trackers.   But yes, changes from one day to the next are less useful.

[Kalimantan]

I think I probably would - again with the knowledge that no poll exists in a vacuum. Hey, I love all polls, whatever the Uni, however much of a crappy leaked internal. I just don't think disco is dead, thats all.

[Kalimantan]

Nate Silver's opinions on the different tracking polls.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html

Interesting read

[Kalimantan]

I'll wait for Gallup and TIPP, but this have been the tightening I was talking about yesterday.  In terms of trends, McCain supporters should be very happy about any shift to McCain on R2K, because of the weighting.

You're not allowed to talk about R2K given your previous disparaging of the poll.

[Kalimantan]

R2K / Kos has shown a closing - almost all in McCain's numbers, Obamas been very stable

This has been virtually all due to republicans coming back to him, with the gap in indy support fairly steady.

[Kalimantan]

R2K / Kos has shown a closing - almost all in McCain's numbers, Obamas been very stable

This has been virtually all due to republicans coming back to him, with the gap in indy support fairly steady.

I know.  I'm just acknowledging that there is a load of difference between a 4-6 point race and an 8-12 point race.  And that's even with Kos' aggressive weighting (which is too aggressive, especially with, say, Hispanics).

You said what where?

Anyway, in your cryptic way, you realy think its going to be a knife-edge election, don't you?

[Kalimantan]

R2Kos final poll

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 46 (+1)

Made up of +4 Sat, +4 Sun and +7 Mon