Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread (user search)
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Author Topic: Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread  (Read 142026 times)
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« on: October 12, 2008, 09:44:48 PM »
Quote from: That One on October 12, 2008, 09:34:53 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on October 12, 2008, 09:32:11 PM
Apparently, Drudge is reporting that tomorrow's Zogby will be Obama 48%, McCain 44%.  For what that's worth.

Does anybody else find it quite humorous that Drudge's new favorite poll is Zogby?

Isn't this the same poster the lunatic fringe on the right lambasted for the last 4 years for predicting Kerry would win the 2004 election by a wide margin?

Desperation is an ugly thing.

Your condescension and smugness is an ugly thing.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2008, 09:57:59 PM »
Who the heck respects R2K? I don't since they sold out their souls to the Kossacks.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2008, 06:49:19 PM »
Can someone answer me something? How can Zogby be done polling when it is only 4:48 on the west coast? I really don't understand.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2008, 07:42:50 AM »
Zogby polls you while you sleep. Zogby can read your brain.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2008, 09:55:37 AM »
Kos
Obama 50%(-2)
McCain 43%(+1)

Hotline
Obama 49%(-1)
McCain 42%(+2)
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2008, 03:01:48 PM »
IBD
Obama 46.6%(-.60)
McCain 41.5%(+1.7)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY7.htm
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2008, 11:58:31 PM »
Zogster
Obama 50.3%(+.5)
McCain 42.4%(-2)
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2008, 12:47:25 PM »
IBD/TIPP
Obama 45.7%(-1.2)
McCain 42.0%(+1.1)
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2008, 01:13:26 PM »
IBD/TIPP
Obama 44.8%
McCain 43.7%

Ut ohh...
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2008, 08:19:48 PM »
Quote from: Verily on October 23, 2008, 07:47:51 PM
Quote from: Alcon on October 23, 2008, 07:40:07 PM
Quote from: nick on October 23, 2008, 07:32:19 PM
What type of lead among this age group are other pollsters showing?

All, that I know of, are showing at least 15-20 points.

Quote from: nick on October 23, 2008, 07:32:19 PM
Could this skew the top line #'s?

To some (small) degree, but I think the bigger point is that it points to a likely flaw in methodology.  That kind of result doesn't just materialize out of statistical noise.

A 70-point swing (from a 50-point McCain lead to a 20-point Obama lead) in 10% of the sample is a 7-point swing in the overall result, to an Obama lead of just over 8 points. Or, in other words, the difference between IBD/TIPP being one of Obama's worst polls overall and his best tracking poll and above his RCP average lead.

That might overstating the case a bit if you want to say that the youth vote is the 9.3% it was in 2004 (it won't be, and will probably be more like 12%) and if you want to be conservative in your estimate of Obama's lead among 18-25s (say, 12-15 points instead of 20), but the skew among youth is hurting Obama's lead by at least five, maybe as many as eight or nine points.

It's not at all irrelevant to the topline numbers even ignoring the obvious problems that must be inherent in the methodology if they're turning up such awful samples.

Let's examine every internal then to see where there could be flaws to add points to your candidate.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2008, 08:24:40 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on October 23, 2008, 08:22:26 PM

Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 23, 2008, 08:19:48 PM
Let's examine every internal then to see where there could be flaws to add points to your candidate.

Time elapsed:  2 minutes, 51 seconds.

Sorry, I have John Kerry disease.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2008, 02:19:16 PM »
IBD/TIPP
Obama 45.8%(+1.0)
McCain 42.3%(-1.4)
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2008, 02:30:52 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on October 24, 2008, 02:26:54 PM
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 24, 2008, 02:19:16 PM
IBD/TIPP
Obama 45.8%(+1.0)
McCain 42.3%(-1.4)

Probably a bad sample dropping.

Yeah, a good Mac day fell off.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2008, 11:53:17 PM »
Zogster
Obama 51.1%(-.2)
McCain 41.6%(+.6)
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2008, 02:08:41 PM »
IBD/TIPP
Obama 45.8%(nc)
McCain 41.9%(-0.4)
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2008, 07:06:39 PM »
ZOGBY SUNDAY: 'In single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama'... Developing...
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2008, 07:18:22 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on October 25, 2008, 07:11:37 PM
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 25, 2008, 07:06:39 PM
ZOGBY SUNDAY: 'In single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama'... Developing...

He doesn't usually do single days, does he?

What a buffoon.  But his margins are about the RCP average, which isn't coincidental in my book.  He won't have an awful year in his final prediction.

I think he means tonights daily sample was 49-46. Which, if my math is correct, should bring the tracker down to Obama +4 or 5.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2008, 07:40:17 PM »
Zogby last three individual nights:
Thursday Obama 49%- McCain 42%
Friday Obama 50%- McCain 45%
Saturday Obama 49%- McCain 46%
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2008, 12:03:46 AM »
Zogster
Obama 49.4%(-1.7)
McCain 44.1%(+2.5)
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2008, 01:11:08 PM »
IBD/TIPP
Obama 46.5%(+0.7)
McCain 43.3%(+1.4)
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2008, 01:25:09 PM »
Quote from: Franzl on October 26, 2008, 01:13:26 PM
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 26, 2008, 01:11:08 PM
IBD/TIPP
Obama 46.5%(+0.7)
McCain 43.3%(+1.4)

this poll has been all over the place.

Actually its kept it pretty stable as a close race.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2008, 01:54:05 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on October 26, 2008, 01:39:24 PM
I'm a little less worried about the volatility (or lack thereof), and a little more about the seeming near-lack of correlation with the other polls.  That's a little odd.

It's pretty close to Zogby numbers. Wink
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2008, 12:03:38 AM »
Zogby
Obama 49.0%(-0.9)
McCain 44.7%(-0.4)

McCain nets 0.5 today as more move to undecided.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2008, 11:55:13 PM »
Zogby
Obama 49.1%(+0.1)
McCain 44.4%(-0.3)
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2008, 08:52:11 PM »
DRUDGE SHOCK

ZOGBY:  MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING
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