Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 22, 2014, 10:25:41 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
| | |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls
| | | |-+  west va?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: west va?  (Read 12132 times)
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20748


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« on: September 14, 2004, 07:42:50 pm »
Ignore

ive seen no recent polls of the state.

im assuming bush is currently up 2-3 points.

discuss.
Logged


I am guaranteed $10.00/hr, but could make up to $16.00/hr.  That's not including all the sales games they have.  AT&T likes to throw money around.
Lunar
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30617
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2004, 07:48:29 pm »
Ignore

It's very difficult to estimate where a state is right now when there is much dispute over where the country is right now.  Legitimate polls paint Bush as anywhere between 0 and 7 points ahead.

Kerry won't be killed over the coal issue like in 2000.  Bush will get some votes from social conservatives, but overall it seems that West Virginians value economic issues many times more.

From the polls that have been done (and comparing them to the national numbers), and reports coming out of the state, my guess would be WV to Kerry by 1.5% in a tied election.
Logged

this is real
Giant Saguaro
TheGiantSaguaro
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1905


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: 3.83

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2004, 07:53:29 pm »
Ignore

That state is a bit of a mystery. It may be that I'm reading something that isn't there, but it seems to me that when/if an elector threatens a month and a half out that he is considering abstaining or not casting his vote for the candidate he has pledged to vote for, it looks like his candidate is in a pretty good position. But I could be reading too in-depth.

I think Bush might be up a couple, I don't know quite by his 2000 spread. Gore torpedoed his own boat in that state by openly attacking the coal industry and the 2nd amendment. Kerry won't do either, won't come close. Won't even touch coal with a nine-foot pole and will be so pro-gun when he goes into WV he'll probably have all sorts of guns strapped on him when he goes around. Cap guns, water guns, pistols, Uzis, etc. Smiley I do think there are traits Bush has that West Virginians admire, like his straight forwardness, resolute position on the war, etc. I don't know, it'll be close.
Logged

CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10660


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2004, 07:59:17 pm »
Ignore

Clearly West Virginia is one of Kerry's best chances to flip a 2000 Bush state.

Either way, it should be considerably closer than most states.
Logged

Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
Reds4
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 768


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2004, 08:12:40 pm »
Ignore

I think Kerry will pull out WVA. I don't understand why so many people think Bush will win it again, Gore totally screwed up in WVA in 2000, that was a true shocker that he lost there.
Logged
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6300
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2004, 08:43:15 pm »
Ignore

The economy isn't looking so good there, and that's what they are most concerned with.  Kerry wins by 2 here.
Logged



OH I JUST CAN'T WAIT TILL HE'S MOD!!!
AuH2O
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4246


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2004, 08:46:53 pm »
Ignore

If Bush wins the popular vote, he'll take WV.

Kerry could take it, but I would only give him a 20% chance of doing so based on his current disposition.
Logged

don't forget to remember, the devil's got pills in his eyes

look, laugh, but don't touch... cut you down to size
dougrhess
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 442


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2004, 08:58:35 pm »
Ignore

The NRA spent big bucks in WV in 2000, IIRC. Are they doing that this year?
Logged
MODU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22107
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2004, 09:13:15 pm »
Ignore


I believe WVA will be split.  Neither candidate seems to have an advantage on the other at the moment.
Logged

Attention bloggers:  Join SeededBuzz and gain access to thousands of new readers.  Simply paste a link and summary of your article for community members to link back to, drawing more activity to your site.  Membership is FREE!

Visit MODU's Musings


"Anybody who doesn't appreciate what America has done and President Bush, let them go to hell." - Betty Dawisha, Iraqi vote
Shira
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1860


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2004, 09:56:31 pm »
Ignore

In 1988 H.W Bush was in WV 5.9% below his national number.
In 2000 G.W Bush was in WV 4% above his national number.

An almost 10% shift in 12 years.
Prediction:
Bush will win WV
Logged

Understand, ye brutish among the people:and ye fools, when will ye be wise?
___________
Psalm 94:8
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10660


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2004, 10:00:33 pm »
Ignore

You're probably correct.
Logged

Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
Gabu
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28562
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2004, 10:04:11 pm »
Ignore

In 1988 H.W Bush was in WV 5.9% below his national number.
In 2000 G.W Bush was in WV 4% above his national number.

An almost 10% shift in 12 years.
Prediction:
Bush will win WV

In 1992 Clinton won West Virginia with 48.4% of the vote.  In 1996 he won it again with 51.5%.  Both were rated "strongly Clinton".

There is no real trend there in a place that you're trying to force one onto.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2004, 10:05:08 pm by Gabu »Logged



"To me, 'underground' sounds like subway trains.  That's the only sound I associate with 'underground'." - Everett
Lunar
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30617
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2004, 10:05:25 pm »
Ignore

In 1988 H.W Bush was in WV 5.9% below his national number.
In 2000 G.W Bush was in WV 4% above his national number.

An almost 10% shift in 12 years.
Prediction:
Bush will win WV

2000 is an outlier.  Gore lost the state due to a large number of single-issue voters that won't exist in the same quantities in 2004.

There is a darn good reason why Bush, Kerry, and all the 527s focus so much on West Virginia, and it most likely is because the state is very likely to flip one way or another (very close to the national number).
« Last Edit: September 14, 2004, 10:06:30 pm by Lunar »Logged

this is real
English
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1188


View Profile WWW
« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2004, 05:35:31 am »
Ignore

I'm not nearly so optimistic about WV. If Kerry wins it, it'll be extremely close. Kerry by 0.5% I think.
Logged

I live in the UK and regard myself as a socially liberal, economic centrist. I vote for the British Labour party and support the Canadian NDP and US Democratic parties.


Economic -2.38
Social -1.74
Sibboleth Bist
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56187
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2004, 06:03:21 am »
Ignore

Machine Politics and Manchin's coattails *should* win it for Kerry.
Guns could help Bush, but his support for relaxing safety laws down the Mines could hurt him a lot.
If on election day, a wire reports a "strong turnout in Southern WV" Kerry's won it.

Turnout, turnout, turnout
Logged

WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20748


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2004, 01:55:57 pm »
Ignore

question for the dems:

if bush is competitive in iowa, wisconsin and minnesota, what makes you all so confident of kerry's chances in wva?  id say that wva would go for bush long before the previous mentioned 3 states would.
Logged


I am guaranteed $10.00/hr, but could make up to $16.00/hr.  That's not including all the sales games they have.  AT&T likes to throw money around.
Gabu
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28562
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2004, 01:57:36 pm »
Ignore

question for the dems:

if bush is competitive in iowa, wisconsin and minnesota, what makes you all so confident of kerry's chances in wva?  id say that wva would go for bush long before the previous mentioned 3 states would.

I'm not really confident of his chances there.  I was just saying that there wasn't the trend that Shira was trying to lay on the state.
Logged



"To me, 'underground' sounds like subway trains.  That's the only sound I associate with 'underground'." - Everett
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4565


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2004, 02:19:46 pm »
Ignore

In 1988 H.W Bush was in WV 5.9% below his national number.
In 2000 G.W Bush was in WV 4% above his national number.

An almost 10% shift in 12 years.
Prediction:
Bush will win WV

2000 is an outlier.  Gore lost the state due to a large number of single-issue voters that won't exist in the same quantities in 2004.

There is a darn good reason why Bush, Kerry, and all the 527s focus so much on West Virginia, and it most likely is because the state is very likely to flip one way or another (very close to the national number).

I think Gore's Campaign Book entitled:

"Why Coal is evil and all coal miners should be thrown out of work immediately and then publically shamed and flogged"

hurt him in West Virginia. (I may be paraphrasing the title, but not by much)

Smiley

The GOP seems pretty cocky about the state, A poll early last month by POS had bush up about 2% so I wouldn't be struting around too much based on that.

I think the state is very close, maybe Bush is up just a tad right now, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that.

The Dems are still anti-coal and anti-gun.  I am sure Bush and the NRA will remind folks of that in West Virginia.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2004, 02:23:47 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
A18
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23836
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2004, 02:21:53 pm »
Ignore

Can anyone imagine if Al Gore was president right now? He'd be polling at about 20% of the vote.
Logged
Sibboleth Bist
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56187
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2004, 02:22:35 pm »
Ignore

question for the dems:

if bush is competitive in iowa, wisconsin and minnesota, what makes you all so confident of kerry's chances in wva?  id say that wva would go for bush long before the previous mentioned 3 states would.

Confident would be the wrong word... I have Kerry as "slight favourite" in WV because I'm assuming the Byrd/Rahall/UMW machine in Southern WV will drive turnout up (possibly by not entirely legal means...) enough to let Kerry pull off a win.

Besides, swings are rarely uniform.
Logged

Siege40
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1840


Political Matrix
E: -6.25, S: -4.26

View Profile WWW
« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2004, 04:37:32 pm »
Ignore

All the most recent polls I've seen say 47-44 for Kerry. I have a feeling that it'll be a squaker. Really close, but in the end, it'll go Democrat... if I'm lucky. I have a buck riding on West Virginia.

Siege
Logged

President - July 1, 2005 - Nov 4, 2005
Secretary of State - Mar 6, 2005 - July 1, 2005
Senator - Nov 5, 2004 - Mar 1, 2005
Northeast Governor - Aug 29, 2004 - Nov 5, 2004
Northeast Lt. Governor - Apr 9, 2004 - Aug 29, 2004

PC Scores: Econ - -6.25 Social - -4.26

Canadian registered in Vermont
A18
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23836
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2004, 04:39:59 pm »
Ignore

The NRA spent big bucks in WV in 2000, IIRC. Are they doing that this year?

Yes
Logged
Thanks for all the fish!
Avelaval
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1293


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2005, 01:34:23 pm »
Ignore

What the hell happened to WV?
Logged

Signatures suck.
Sibboleth Bist
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56187
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2005, 01:53:29 pm »
Ignore

What the hell happened to WV?

Kerry ed up big time. I've written a lot of rants about that...
Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines