Why is Obama coming to PA

[J. J.]

Geez, you still on this?

Yes, there has to be some reason for it.

Your first question has been answered at least a dozen times on here today including 3 times by me. And you've ignored each answer. Regardless, you've harped on for the past week that Obama's fundraising was poor and that's been dismissed as the deluded rants of a partisan hack quite emphatically today. Only a complete imbecile would try to spin $150m raised in a month as some sort of botched campaign PR.

McCain's in Iowa because it's a Bush state and he has to at least give the pretence that he's competitive there even if he isn't because it's embarrassing otherwise. Obama's in Pennsylvania because it has 21 electoral votes and he can't lose if he holds Pennsylvania with the way the electoral map looks.

All of the polls have Obama up double digits in PA. All of them. But if you want to ignore them and instead use an appearance last week as a sign than Obama's in trouble there because it somehow fits in the narrative you've been peddling then I'm not going to argue because you're quite clearly not sane.

Good night.

The fund raising great, but why suppress it.  I doubt if it is "botched PR."  There has to be another reason.

NM was a Bush state last time, and it looks closer, in at least some polls.  McCain isn't there.

PA, according to some polls, Obama is up by double digits.  Yet he's not only in PA, but Philadelphia, not a swing area.

I think both campaigns know what they're doing, but I don't know what that is.

[Lunar]

Well, the fundraising has been explained to you.  If you believe that people give more money when they find out their money will only bit a tiny drop in a 150 million dollar bucket, then not much I can do.

On why Obama is in Philly, it's because he's trying to boost AA turnout.  The less the "swing voters" see of Obama, the better he'll do, as they'll think of a generic Democrat and not Mr. Hussein in the voting booth.  Which is why the Clintons and Biden are the messengers in the swingy parts of the state.

You're right that PA will be closer than the current polls indicate , and it's important to note that PA has a lot of swing voters - meaning any swings in national numbers might be reflected more strongly in PA (5% McCain comeback might be worth 8-9% in PA).  This is why Obama is campaigning there.  It's a competitive state that he needs and McCain's campaign is pouring their entire campaign into trying to flip it!  Any conspiracy theories about Obama having figured out how to poll the Bradley Effect is just silly.

[cinyc]

But we've already established today that your guesses, predictions and assumptions are not grounded in reality.

No, we've just established you can't answer the question and try to divert it by attacks.

There are several questions that have been raised, i.e. why hide the fund raising that has been good (and that a number of people have said was announced poorly), why is McCain in Iowa and why was Obama in Philadelphia?

My guess is that the answers are based on internal polling.

Your first question has been answered at least a dozen times on here today including 3 times by me. And you've ignored each answer. Regardless, you've harped on for the past week that Obama's fundraising was poor and that's been dismissed as the deluded rants of a partisan hack quite emphatically today. Only a complete imbecile would try to spin $150m raised in a month as some sort of botched campaign PR.

McCain's in Iowa because it's a Bush state and he has to at least give the pretence that he's competitive there even if he isn't because it's embarrassing otherwise. Obama's in Pennsylvania because it has 21 electoral votes and he can't lose if he holds Pennsylvania with the way the electoral map looks.

All of the polls have Obama up double digits in PA. All of them. But if you want to ignore them and instead use an appearance last week as a sign than Obama's in trouble there because it somehow fits in the narrative you've been peddling then I'm not going to argue because you're quite clearly not sane.

Good night.

Presidential candidates usually visit states for three reasons:

1) Fund raising
2) Their internal polling shows that they have a shot at winning the state
3) Their internal polling shows that their support is soft and might lose the state.

McCain's internals show he is "only" trailing in Iowa by single digits.  I suspect that both candidates' internals show Pennsylvania is closer than the public polling, depending on the turnout model.

I doubt Obama's September fund raising was as terrible as J.J. thinks.  Obama is waiting until he is legally required to release fund raising totals for a reason - why tip your hand early when you don't have to?  It would be foolish for him to do so.

[Lunar]

already announce 150 million, DNC got 50 million.

[J. J.]

Presidential candidates usually visit states for three reasons:

1) Fund raising
2) Their internal polling shows that they have a shot at winning the state
3) Their internal polling shows that their support is soft and might lose the state.

McCain's internals show he is "only" trailing in Iowa by single digits.  I suspect that both candidates' internals show Pennsylvania is closer than the public polling, depending on the turnout model.

I doubt Obama's September fund raising was as terrible as J.J. thinks.  Obama is waiting until he is legally required to release fund raising totals for a reason - why tip your hand early when you don't have to?  It would be foolish for him to do so.

Obama's actually spent more in the Philadelphia Media Market than he raised in PA through 8/31/08, so #1 is unlikely.  Obama has more than a shot of winning the state, so eliminate #2.  That leaves #3.

BTW:  Until this month, Obama has tipped his had early.

[Lunar]

You didn't refute #1.  Obama has not spent more by traveling to the state than he has earned by visiting it.

But, as McCain has been forced to learn in NE-2, Indiana, Florida and North Carolina, if your opponent is going gung-ho after a state, you can't ignore it.

[J. J.]

You didn't refute #1.  Obama has not spent more by traveling to the state than he has earned by visiting it.

Obama hasn't raised money that much money in the state and doing 4 non-fund raising stops in Phila.  If he was just fund raising here and maybe a quick stop, I'd buy it.

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

[J. J.]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

[J. J.]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

The first part is simply not true.  Last week, 10/13-10/19, Obama spent over $1 million more in Florida than he did in Pennsylvania, $4.3 million to $3 million.  He outspent McCain+RNC in PA by about a 3:2 margin.  In Florida, he outspent McCain+RNC by about a 4:1 margin.  In Indiana, the margin was 3:1.  Missouri, 2:1.  New Hampshire, 5:1.  Ohio, 2:1.  Virginia, 5:1.  Wisconsin, 2:1.  Maine, 2:1.

In fairness, McCain + RNC are (barely) outspending Obama in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

As to the second part, he's spending time in states other than PA as well.

[J. J.]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

The first part is simply not true.  Last week, 10/13-10/19, Obama spent over $1 million more in Florida than he did in Pennsylvania, $4.3 million to $3 million.  He outspent McCain+RNC in PA by about a 3:2 margin.  In Florida, he outspent McCain+RNC by about a 4:1 margin.  In Indiana, the margin was 3:1.  Missouri, 2:1.  New Hampshire, 5:1.  Ohio, 2:1.  Virginia, 5:1.  Wisconsin, 2:1.  Maine, 2:1.

In fairness, McCain + RNC are (barely) outspending Obama in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

As to the second part, he's spending time in states other than PA as well.

I'm not talking about the last week, but the last month.  He was up by 4:1.  He spent an inordinate amount of time is a supposedly "safe" state (that he should win).  Four stops in Philadelphia!

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

The first part is simply not true.  Last week, 10/13-10/19, Obama spent over $1 million more in Florida than he did in Pennsylvania, $4.3 million to $3 million.  He outspent McCain+RNC in PA by about a 3:2 margin.  In Florida, he outspent McCain+RNC by about a 4:1 margin.  In Indiana, the margin was 3:1.  Missouri, 2:1.  New Hampshire, 5:1.  Ohio, 2:1.  Virginia, 5:1.  Wisconsin, 2:1.  Maine, 2:1.

In fairness, McCain + RNC are (barely) outspending Obama in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

As to the second part, he's spending time in states other than PA as well.

I'm not talking about the last week, but the last month.  He was up by 4:1.  He spent an inordinate amount of time is a supposedly "safe" state (that he should win).  Four stops in Philadelphia!

The week before, it was the same ratio in PA, about 3:2 compared to over 6:1 in VA, 4:1 in NH, 2:1 in NV, 5:1 in IN, 4:1 in FL, 4:1 in ME, 16:1 in MI, 2:1 in MO.  Obama spent $4.3 million in FL compared to $3.3 million in PA.  That's right, Obama spent over $300K less in PA this past week than the week before.

Obviously, Obama feels that, at this point, he only needs to increase turnout in the Philly area to safely carry the state.

[J. J.]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

The first part is simply not true.  Last week, 10/13-10/19, Obama spent over $1 million more in Florida than he did in Pennsylvania, $4.3 million to $3 million.  He outspent McCain+RNC in PA by about a 3:2 margin.  In Florida, he outspent McCain+RNC by about a 4:1 margin.  In Indiana, the margin was 3:1.  Missouri, 2:1.  New Hampshire, 5:1.  Ohio, 2:1.  Virginia, 5:1.  Wisconsin, 2:1.  Maine, 2:1.

In fairness, McCain + RNC are (barely) outspending Obama in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

As to the second part, he's spending time in states other than PA as well.

I'm not talking about the last week, but the last month.  He was up by 4:1.  He spent an inordinate amount of time is a supposedly "safe" state (that he should win).  Four stops in Philadelphia!

The week before, it was the same ratio in PA, about 3:2 compared to over 6:1 in VA, 4:1 in NH, 2:1 in NV, 5:1 in IN, 4:1 in FL, 4:1 in ME, 16:1 in MI, 2:1 in MO.  Obama spent $4.3 million in FL compared to $3.3 million in PA.  That's right, Obama spent over $300K less in PA this past week than the week before.

Do you have a link?

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Obviously, if he's ahead by double digits he wouldn't have to.  That's been my point.

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

The first part is simply not true.  Last week, 10/13-10/19, Obama spent over $1 million more in Florida than he did in Pennsylvania, $4.3 million to $3 million.  He outspent McCain+RNC in PA by about a 3:2 margin.  In Florida, he outspent McCain+RNC by about a 4:1 margin.  In Indiana, the margin was 3:1.  Missouri, 2:1.  New Hampshire, 5:1.  Ohio, 2:1.  Virginia, 5:1.  Wisconsin, 2:1.  Maine, 2:1.

In fairness, McCain + RNC are (barely) outspending Obama in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

As to the second part, he's spending time in states other than PA as well.

I'm not talking about the last week, but the last month.  He was up by 4:1.  He spent an inordinate amount of time is a supposedly "safe" state (that he should win).  Four stops in Philadelphia!

The week before, it was the same ratio in PA, about 3:2 compared to over 6:1 in VA, 4:1 in NH, 2:1 in NV, 5:1 in IN, 4:1 in FL, 4:1 in ME, 16:1 in MI, 2:1 in MO.  Obama spent $4.3 million in FL compared to $3.3 million in PA.  That's right, Obama spent over $300K less in PA this past week than the week before.

Do you have a link?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Obviously, if he's ahead by double digits he wouldn't have to.  That's been my point.

TV ad spending: 10/13-10/19  Yes, it's Kos, but he gets the numbers from TNS Media Intelligence.

Withdrawing from a state while your opponent carpet-bombs it in the last few weeks is a good way to lose even a double digit lead.  The smart move is to drown your opponent's main thrust with your own overwhelming cash advantage, which is what Obama is doing.  It's a big reason why this election is over.  McCain/RNC can't drown out Obama's message in the last couple of weeks for a last ditch come-from-behind victory.  Obama has the cash to not only match them, but to overwhelm them in any state they attack.

[J. J.]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

The first part is simply not true.  Last week, 10/13-10/19, Obama spent over $1 million more in Florida than he did in Pennsylvania, $4.3 million to $3 million.  He outspent McCain+RNC in PA by about a 3:2 margin.  In Florida, he outspent McCain+RNC by about a 4:1 margin.  In Indiana, the margin was 3:1.  Missouri, 2:1.  New Hampshire, 5:1.  Ohio, 2:1.  Virginia, 5:1.  Wisconsin, 2:1.  Maine, 2:1.

In fairness, McCain + RNC are (barely) outspending Obama in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

As to the second part, he's spending time in states other than PA as well.

I'm not talking about the last week, but the last month.  He was up by 4:1.  He spent an inordinate amount of time is a supposedly "safe" state (that he should win).  Four stops in Philadelphia!

The week before, it was the same ratio in PA, about 3:2 compared to over 6:1 in VA, 4:1 in NH, 2:1 in NV, 5:1 in IN, 4:1 in FL, 4:1 in ME, 16:1 in MI, 2:1 in MO.  Obama spent $4.3 million in FL compared to $3.3 million in PA.  That's right, Obama spent over $300K less in PA this past week than the week before.

Do you have a link?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Obviously, if he's ahead by double digits he wouldn't have to.  That's been my point.

TV ad spending: 10/13-10/19  Yes, it's Kos, but he gets the numbers from TNS Media Intelligence.

Withdrawing from a state while your opponent carpet-bombs it in the last few weeks is a good way to lose even a double digit lead.  The smart move is to drown your opponent's main thrust with your own overwhelming cash advantage, which is what Obama is doing.  It's a big reason why this election is over.  McCain/RNC can't drown out Obama's message in the last couple of weeks for a last ditch come-from-behind victory.  Obama has the cash to not only match them, but to overwhelm them in any state they attack.

No, you can just keep up the carpet bombing, if you have the bombs; Obama does, at least according to those public polls.  It is a smart move to keep up the pressure, but not waste a day in a state where you are suppose to be in double digits.  My guess is, PA is much closer than we're being led to believe.

[Firefly]

McCain has basically put all of his electoral eggs in the Pennsylvania basket.  Obama would be stupid to then ignore the state.  Obama is not stupid; therefore he is campaigning in Philadelphia.  It's really kinda obvious.

No, Obama is greatly outspending McCain in PA, and he's spending time here.

I'm not suggesting he ignore it but the effort is a major push.  I'd expect it in FL or VA, but not in PA and not really limited to where he's spending it.

Obama is greatly outspending McCain all over the map, not just in Pennsylvania.  But again, it makes perfect sense to spend way more cash in a state that your opponent is staking his electoral chances on if you're able to.

He's been doing it much more here, and he's spending time here.

The first part is simply not true.  Last week, 10/13-10/19, Obama spent over $1 million more in Florida than he did in Pennsylvania, $4.3 million to $3 million.  He outspent McCain+RNC in PA by about a 3:2 margin.  In Florida, he outspent McCain+RNC by about a 4:1 margin.  In Indiana, the margin was 3:1.  Missouri, 2:1.  New Hampshire, 5:1.  Ohio, 2:1.  Virginia, 5:1.  Wisconsin, 2:1.  Maine, 2:1.

In fairness, McCain + RNC are (barely) outspending Obama in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

As to the second part, he's spending time in states other than PA as well.

I'm not talking about the last week, but the last month.  He was up by 4:1.  He spent an inordinate amount of time is a supposedly "safe" state (that he should win).  Four stops in Philadelphia!

The week before, it was the same ratio in PA, about 3:2 compared to over 6:1 in VA, 4:1 in NH, 2:1 in NV, 5:1 in IN, 4:1 in FL, 4:1 in ME, 16:1 in MI, 2:1 in MO.  Obama spent $4.3 million in FL compared to $3.3 million in PA.  That's right, Obama spent over $300K less in PA this past week than the week before.

Do you have a link?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Obviously, if he's ahead by double digits he wouldn't have to.  That's been my point.

TV ad spending: 10/13-10/19  Yes, it's Kos, but he gets the numbers from TNS Media Intelligence.

Withdrawing from a state while your opponent carpet-bombs it in the last few weeks is a good way to lose even a double digit lead.  The smart move is to drown your opponent's main thrust with your own overwhelming cash advantage, which is what Obama is doing.  It's a big reason why this election is over.  McCain/RNC can't drown out Obama's message in the last couple of weeks for a last ditch come-from-behind victory.  Obama has the cash to not only match them, but to overwhelm them in any state they attack.

No, you can just keep up the carpet bombing, if you have the bombs; Obama does, at least according to those public polls.  It is a smart move to keep up the pressure, but not waste a day in a state where you are suppose to be in double digits.  My guess is, PA is much closer than we're being led to believe.

You're right about one thing.  It's a complete guess because there's absolutely no evidence of it.

So if your opponent decides to base his final big push on stealing away Pennsylvania, you would not spend much time there, since you're already up double digits in the polls?  I'm certainly glad you're not advising the Obama campaign.

[J. J.]

So if your opponent decides to base his final big push on stealing away Pennsylvania, you would not spend much time there, since you're already up double digits in the polls?  I'm certainly glad you're not advising the Obama campaign.

That possible "PA play" wasn't there when Obama decided to come to Phila.  We also have Murtha's comments, and Rendell saying for Obama to come to PA.

There is some polling that shows it's closing (not great polling).

I certainly would not have advised Obama to come into the media market that his VP nominee has been in for the last 36 years, that hasn't voted below the Democratic national numbers since 1948, and come into predominantly black neighborhoods for the entire day, unless[/u] my polling was indicating a major weakness.

If there was no weakness, that would be moronic move.  "Moronic" would not be a word I'd use to describe the Obama campaign.

[Firefly]

Well, again, I'm glad you're not advising the Obama campaign.  It's obvious to me why Obama is doing it, and it has nothing to do with some super-double-secret-Pennsylvania-polling-formula.  Obama seemingly spending his time there rallying the base actually makes perfect sense if he's already up big there.  He doesn't need to convince anyone else in the state to vote for him.  He just needs to keep his supporters energized to hold off any possible McCain comeback in the final couple of weeks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Firefly: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=ignore;u=1083;topic=85233

It's easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for logic to enter J. J.'s head.

[J. J.]

Firefly: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=ignore;u=1083;topic=85233

It's easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for logic to enter J. J.'s head.

BRTD, at this point many more of us are saying something is going on in PA at this point.  I'm looking at what the candidates are doing and seeing it.  I'm not the ones starting those threads about Murtha or Rove.