New Jersey, SV, thoughts

[AuH2O]

A LOT of polls have New Jersey being surprisingly close. For state polls, I pretty much look at Strategic Vision (though Gallup is solid of course, but they do them irregularly).

Their latest has Kerry up in NJ 47-43 in a 2-way race; 46-43-2 in a 3-way race.

What's interesting are the internals:

Bush JA

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 49%
Undecided: 7%

This enforces the idea Bush has a lot of "hard" support, thanks in large part to the War and his incumbency status.

Of particular note is Kerry's "favorable" ratings:

Favorable: 40%
Unfavorable: 39%
Undecided: 21%

Since the last SV poll of NJ a little over a month ago, that would be a 15-point swing in favorability- a trend many polls are indicating.

***

Bottom line: I don't see how Kerry can win with his current favorables. He is, historically, in absolutely horrible shape... 1932 Hoover type shape, except for the ever-present ABB vote. Personally, I think "ABB" is just a way for Democrats to justify supporting Kerry, but presumably there are some actual independents in the mix.

If he wants to win, or wants to even be close, he has to raise his favorables. Attacking Bush's Guard service is beyond stupid (hence speculation McAuliffe, Carville, etc. want Kerry to lose). Now, granted, I have no idea how Kerry can improve his numbers... so sliming Bush as much as possible could at least rev up the ABBers.

Frankly, I think it is plainly obvious Kerry is a worse candidate than Mondale, though better than McGovern. Bush happens to be less popular than Reagan, but this election is still going to look a whole lot more like 1984 than 2000.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are you saying you don't think he can win nationally with his current favorables, or you don't think he can win New Jersey.  Certainly Kerry can win New Jersey, as I'll bet his favorables are higher than Bush's right now.  But, yes, he would have to improve to win nationally.

[AuH2O]

To clarify: yes, I did mean nationally.

I still think Kerry is likely to win NJ.

[The Vorlon]

A challenger with lower personal favorability than the incumbant (as measured by Gallup) has NEVER won.

As always, a tiny sample size, but still interesting.

[Lunar]

A challenger with lower personal favorability than the incumbant (as measured by Gallup) has NEVER won.

As always, a tiny sample size, but still interesting.

I'm not too worried when you consider the whole Pol-Pot example.

[English]

What on earth is happening with NJ?
It should be safe Kerry.

9/11?