Well, there goes FL-16

[Meeker]

Political Wire:

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Is the seat cursed?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My first reaction was to laugh.

[Nutmeg]

Yes, there it goes.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Marginally less embarrassing than his predecessor!

[TheresNoMoney]

He could still pull out a win, but it seems fairly unlikely.

[MarkWarner08]

The DCCC spent$431,094.95 on FL-16. The question is simple: Will they now abandon the seat and divert their ad reservations from FL-16 to FL-21 and FL-25 or FL-08 and FL-24, or will they continue to defend Mahoney?

For the time being, I've moved this race to Leans Republican. The GOP is now in position to pick off eight Democrat-held House seats.


Leans Republican:
1. FL-16 (Mahoney)

Tossup/Tilts Republican:
2. PA-11 (Kanjorski)
3.TX-22 (Lampson)
4. LA-06 (Cazayoux)
5. NH-01 (Shea-Porter)


Pure Tossup:
6. KS-02 (Boyda)
7 AL-05* (Cramer)
8. WI-08 (Kagen)

[Sam Spade]

Well, at least he didn't beat her up like someone else who I have in mind...

[MarkWarner08]

"You work at my pleasure" --Tim Mahoney, misogynist pig and one-term fluke Congressman, said to his mistress.

What's worse than  cheating on his wife?  Cheating on his mistress with other women. Even worse than that is featuring his former mistress in a campaign mailer about moral values.

Then again, this is the same Congressman who complained about his job as Congressman, who featured veterans in uniform in a TV ad (a violation of DoD rules), and who authorized a mailer showing a vet in Soviet garb.

Good riddance, Tim Mahoney. Let's hope on Nov. 4th, FL will  also vote out corrupt Rep. Tom Feeney, Rep. Ric Keller (who ran an egregiously negative campaign against his primary foe), and the brothers Diaz-Balart, who stand in the way of normalized trade relations with Cuba.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"You work at my pleasure" --Tim Mahoney, misogynist pig and one-term fluke Congressman, said to his mistress.

I take it that you aren't exactly a fan of his...

[Sam Spade]

"You work at my pleasure" --Tim Mahoney, misogynist pig and one-term fluke Congressman, said to his mistress.

I take it that you aren't exactly a fan of his...

Probably not as happy because if this gets reported heavily, Democratic House prospects will take a mild hit (don't overestimate it, however).  I can understand.

Of course, I agree that the guy's a a**hole, also.

[Keystone Phil]

Thanks, Tim!

[Mr.Phips]

"You work at my pleasure" --Tim Mahoney, misogynist pig and one-term fluke Congressman, said to his mistress.

I take it that you aren't exactly a fan of his...

Probably not as happy because if this gets reported heavily, Democratic House prospects will take a mild hit (don't overestimate it, however).  I can understand.

Of course, I agree that the guy's a a**hole, also.

If Democrats dont pick up at least 20 seats in the House this year, they shouldnt even want the White House.  They have to have a buffer against 2010. 

[Sam Spade]

"You work at my pleasure" --Tim Mahoney, misogynist pig and one-term fluke Congressman, said to his mistress.

I take it that you aren't exactly a fan of his...

Probably not as happy because if this gets reported heavily, Democratic House prospects will take a mild hit (don't overestimate it, however).  I can understand.

Of course, I agree that the guy's a a**hole, also.

If Democrats dont pick up at least 20 seats in the House this year, they shouldnt even want the White House.  They have to have a buffer against 2010. 

Right now, the Dems have a 236-199 majority (Tubbs-Jones is vacant, but will obviously go Dem).

So, you're saying that if the Dems only pick up, say 15, which would make it 251-184, they wouldn't have enough buffer for 2010?  Are you saying that the GOP would have enough power to regain 34 seats (that would be the majority) or at least come close (which would probably be a worse scenario)?  I think a lot depends on what happens.

[Mr.Phips]

"You work at my pleasure" --Tim Mahoney, misogynist pig and one-term fluke Congressman, said to his mistress.

I take it that you aren't exactly a fan of his...

Probably not as happy because if this gets reported heavily, Democratic House prospects will take a mild hit (don't overestimate it, however).  I can understand.

Of course, I agree that the guy's a a**hole, also.

If Democrats dont pick up at least 20 seats in the House this year, they shouldnt even want the White House.  They have to have a buffer against 2010. 

Right now, the Dems have a 236-199 majority (Tubbs-Jones is vacant, but will obviously go Dem).

So, you're saying that if the Dems only pick up, say 15, which would make it 251-184, they wouldn't have enough buffer for 2010?  Are you saying that the GOP would have enough power to regain 34 seats (that would be the majority) or at least come close (which would probably be a worse scenario)?  I think a lot depends on what happens.

Its always possible, although very unusual that we see three wave elections in a row.  We are likely due for a normal midterm election in 2010. 

[MarkWarner08]

"You work at my pleasure" --Tim Mahoney, misogynist pig and one-term fluke Congressman, said to his mistress.

I take it that you aren't exactly a fan of his...

Probably not as happy because if this gets reported heavily, Democratic House prospects will take a mild hit (don't overestimate it, however).  I can understand.

Of course, I agree that the guy's a a**hole, also.

Yeah.  This scandal could harm Democratic chances in FL-08 and FL-24, just like the Foley scandal helped sink Clay Shaw and contributed to the near-win by Christine Jennings.

[Mr.Phips]

"You work at my pleasure" --Tim Mahoney, misogynist pig and one-term fluke Congressman, said to his mistress.

I take it that you aren't exactly a fan of his...

Probably not as happy because if this gets reported heavily, Democratic House prospects will take a mild hit (don't overestimate it, however).  I can understand.

Of course, I agree that the guy's a a**hole, also.

Yeah.  This scandal could harm Democratic chances in FL-08 and FL-24, just like the Foley scandal helped sink Clay Shaw and contributed to the near-win by Christine Jennings.

Different media market.  Shaw and Foley were both in the Palm Beach market, while FL-08 and FL-24 are in the Orlando market. 

[minionofmidas]

Oh well.

Mind you, his convention remarks are still arch-FFish in my book.

Btw, when was that woman his mistress? Because a lot of how exactly to interprete that depends on the date stamps on everything...

[MarkWarner08]

"You work at my pleasure" --Tim Mahoney, misogynist pig and one-term fluke Congressman, said to his mistress.

I take it that you aren't exactly a fan of his...

Probably not as happy because if this gets reported heavily, Democratic House prospects will take a mild hit (don't overestimate it, however).  I can understand.

Of course, I agree that the guy's a a**hole, also.

Yeah.  This scandal could harm Democratic chances in FL-08 and FL-24, just like the Foley scandal helped sink Clay Shaw and contributed to the near-win by Christine Jennings.

Different media market.  Shaw and Foley were both in the Palm Beach market, while FL-08 and FL-24 are in the Orlando market. 

Yes, but the scandal will permeate the FL media coverage of House elections. Fortunately, Mahoney hasn't given any cash to the Democratic candidates in FL-08, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25.

Does anyone know if he's contributed any dues to the D-trip? If so, that cash could be used for  guilt-by-association attacks against  those Democratic challengers.

[Sam Spade]

Oh well.

Mind you, his convention remarks are still arch-FFish in my book.

Btw, when was that woman his mistress? Because a lot of how exactly to interprete that depends on the date stamps on everything...

ABC via Politico...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1008/Owning_Mahoney.html

-- The affair between Mahoney and Allen began, according to the current and former staffers, in 2006 when Mahoney was campaigning for Congress against Foley, promising "a world that is safer, more moral."

-- The staffers say Mahoney first met Allen at a campaign stop and later arranged for her to work as a volunteer on the campaign. Allen also appeared in a Mahoney campaign television commercial, criticizing his opponent.

-- Friends of Allen told ABC News that Allen sought to break off the affair when she learned Mahoney was allegedly involved in other extra-marital relationships at the same time.

-- Her friends say she told them Mahoney threatened that ending the relationship could cost her the job.

-- "You work at my pleasure," Congressman Mahoney told Allen on a January 20, 2008 telephone call that was recorded and played for Mahoney staffers. ABC News was provided a copy.

[Dan the Roman]

"You work at my pleasure" --Tim Mahoney, misogynist pig and one-term fluke Congressman, said to his mistress.

I take it that you aren't exactly a fan of his...

Probably not as happy because if this gets reported heavily, Democratic House prospects will take a mild hit (don't overestimate it, however).  I can understand.

Of course, I agree that the guy's a a**hole, also.

Yeah.  This scandal could harm Democratic chances in FL-08 and FL-24, just like the Foley scandal helped sink Clay Shaw and contributed to the near-win by Christine Jennings.

Different media market.  Shaw and Foley were both in the Palm Beach market, while FL-08 and FL-24 are in the Orlando market. 

Yes, but the scandal will permeate the FL media coverage of House elections. Fortunately, Mahoney hasn't given any cash to the Democratic candidates in FL-08, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25.

Does anyone know if he's contributed any dues to the D-trip? If so, that cash could be used for  guilt-by-association attacks against  those Democratic challengers.

I really think this is not such a big deal. Unlike Foley, it does not involve

A. Teenage Boys
C. A Congressman of the same-sex

This is far closer to Ted Steven's current difficulties in my view. A problem for Stevens, and probably fatal for Mahoney, but of no consequence anywhere else. Really, most voters assume Congressman are probably sleeping around. The fact that a Democrat has a mistress will not affect anyone except their constiuents and I doubt even here it would be fatal if Mahoney weren't already in serious trouble.

[Mr.Phips]

"You work at my pleasure" --Tim Mahoney, misogynist pig and one-term fluke Congressman, said to his mistress.

I take it that you aren't exactly a fan of his...

Probably not as happy because if this gets reported heavily, Democratic House prospects will take a mild hit (don't overestimate it, however).  I can understand.

Of course, I agree that the guy's a a**hole, also.

Yeah.  This scandal could harm Democratic chances in FL-08 and FL-24, just like the Foley scandal helped sink Clay Shaw and contributed to the near-win by Christine Jennings.

Different media market.  Shaw and Foley were both in the Palm Beach market, while FL-08 and FL-24 are in the Orlando market. 

Yes, but the scandal will permeate the FL media coverage of House elections. Fortunately, Mahoney hasn't given any cash to the Democratic candidates in FL-08, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25.

Does anyone know if he's contributed any dues to the D-trip? If so, that cash could be used for  guilt-by-association attacks against  those Democratic challengers.

The only people that usually watch House race coverage are hard-core political junkies like us.  

This seat would be not that big of a loss anyway, since Democrats would likely lose it in 2010 anyway. 

[MarkWarner08]

"FL-16   DCCC   7-Oct   Media Prod.   $9,729.42"

The DCCC recently dropped $10k for a new ad. Will they now air this ad at the cost of several hundred thousand dollars, or will they can the ad and pull out of the district?

I'd guess they'll poll the district in a couple days (after the scandal has reached peak saturation) to see if Mahoney's a goner. It'll be very telling to see how the DCCC's I/E unit responds to this news.

[MarkWarner08]

I really think this is not such a big deal. Unlike Foley, it does not involve

A. Teenage Boys
C. A Congressman of the same-sex

This is far closer to Ted Steven's current difficulties in my view. A problem for Stevens, and probably fatal for Mahoney, but of no consequence anywhere else. Really, most voters assume Congressman are probably sleeping around. The fact that a Democrat has a mistress will not affect anyone except their constiuents and I doubt even here it would be fatal if Mahoney weren't already in serious trouble.

The only people that usually watch House race coverage are hard-core political junkies like us.

I hope you're both right. This story will hinge on how Mahoney reacts to this news.  If he shows his contrition and airs an apology ad (like Tom Feeney did), he may pull out a victory.  If he denies all the allegations and refuses to talk to the media, he'll perpetuate the scandal, and potentially harm other Democrats. Anything in the middle probably costs him his seat, but has little resonance outside FL-16.

[minionofmidas]

Bad. For Mahoney, I mean, including my own estimation of him. (re Sam's details.)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hey, maybe he could withdraw and someone could run in his place? "Punch Mahoney for ____!"