Analogies for the 2012 presidential election

[AltWorlder]

Assuming Obama/Biden wins,

Sarah Palin is John Edwards, the young populist ex-vice presidential candidate.

Bobby Jindal is Obama, the last great non-white young hope for a defeated party.

Who is Hillary in this scenario?  I would guess Romney, seeing as both are slick establishmentarians with experience but ultimately not all that likable.

[Dr. Cynic]

Assuming Obama/Biden wins,

Sarah Palin is John Edwards, the young populist ex-vice presidential candidate.

Bobby Jindal is Obama, the last great non-white young hope for a defeated party.

Who is Hillary in this scenario?  I would guess Romney, seeing as both are slick establishmentarians with experience but ultimately not all that likable.

Sarah Palin isn't really populist, but I suppose what you say makes sense.

[Хahar 🤔]

Assuming Obama/Biden wins,

Sarah Palin is John Edwards, the young populist ex-vice presidential candidate.

Bobby Jindal is Obama, the last great non-white young hope for a defeated party.

Who is Hillary in this scenario?  I would guess Romney, seeing as both are slick establishmentarians with experience but ultimately not all that likable.

Sarah Palin isn't really populist, but I suppose what you say makes sense.

She is. Populism has no specific ideology (although some are less conducive to it than others).

[TomC]

Who is Hillary in this scenario? 

Tom Ridge. Not the first choice of the base, but certainly qualified.

[AltWorlder]

Hillary was the juggernaut who Obama had to beat, though.  Would Ridge be a juggernaut against Jindal and Palin?

And remember that this is just a thought exercise, not supposed to be realistic in the least.

[Workers' Friend]

Who is Huckabee analouged to?

[MaxQue]

Assuming Obama/Biden wins,

Sarah Palin is John Edwards, the young populist ex-vice presidential candidate.

Bobby Jindal is Obama, the last great non-white young hope for a defeated party.

Who is Hillary in this scenario?  I would guess Romney, seeing as both are slick establishmentarians with experience but ultimately not all that likable.

Hillary is Guilani 2, the same thing but without the awful strategy.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Oh I thought you meant an election, in an election sense it should mirror 1992 if McCain wins

[pbrower2a]

Catastrophic Obama Presidency:  Hoover 1932 or Carter 1980. Does anyone see that?

Awful Obama Presidency: Bush 1992, Ford 1976.

"Marginally tolerable" Bush 2004, Truman 1948 maybe something out of the 19th Century.

There's really nothing in between Truman 1948 and Clinton 1996, so there are no good analogies. Even Truman 1948 would have been more like Clinton 1996 had it not been for the Dixiecrat secession.

"Convincing" Obama Presidency: Clinton 1996, Coolidge 1924. (not that Coolidge was much better than Bush 2004).

Strong Obama Presidency: Eisenhower 1956. That's the strongest that I can reasonably imagine.



 

[Mint]

I'm betting on Carter in 1980.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm betting on Carter in 1980.

It could be. The man doesn't know how to govern and it looks like his administration is in a mess right now.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'm betting on Carter in 1980.

If the Republicans find a Reagan-esque candidate, not necessarily beliefs wise but excitement wise, it could be worse.  I would think Romney, if the election were quite soon, would win with around 300 EVs, but if it was someone like Huntsman it would be closer to 400 EVs

[Democratic Hawk]

It, essentially, depends on the economy as to whether this president is re-elected or not assuming that there are no major defense, foreign or national security mishaps

Much depends on whether the president can hold the pragmatically moderate center - and should he be successful, he will

I'm not betting on 2012 being either 1980 Carter or 1984 Reagan

Dave

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'd say somewhere between Bush '04 and Clinton '96.

[Citizen James]

1984.

Palin = Mondale
Romeny = Hart
Jindal = Jackson.

Obama = RR
Biden = GWHB

[pbrower2a]

I'm betting on Carter in 1980.

It could be. The man doesn't know how to govern and it looks like his administration is in a mess right now.

Clinton got that rap early, and it is questionable that he ever learned to govern. He won decisively in 1996 -- most likely because he was lucky. That's not to say that he was by any means a great President. He well played the center.

The current conservative base of the GOP is absolutely not enough to win in 2012.  The base must expand to win, and must convince people not in the base that the GOP has better ideas. A repackaging of the George W. Bush agenda ensures an Obama landslide.

[GLPman]

I'd say somewhere between Bush '04 and Clinton '96.

I agree with this statement. I don't see Obama failing, but I don't think he'll be re-elected in a landslide election, either.

[Serenity Now]

pragmatically moderate center

I found that wording there amusing..

[You kip if you want to...]

I'd say somewhere between Bush '04 and Clinton '96.

I agree with this statement. I don't see Obama failing, but I don't think he'll be re-elected in a landslide election, either.

If the economy is out of recession and the Dow is at around 10,000-13,000, he'll get atleast what he got in '08. He'll top 400 if the GOP run a weak candidate.