Canada 2008: Official Results Thread

[MaxQue]

They uncalled Strathcona but they called SRB!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

they called SRB!

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News from Vancouver; Ujjal Dosanjh and Bill Siksay are both in very tight races.

[MaxQue]

they called SRB!

Elections Canada: With 150/150

PCC 12 166
NDP   11 913   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

they called SRB!

Elections Canada: With 150/150

PCC 12 166
NDP   11 913   

Bah. Humbug.

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Question for everyone; which province did the NDP poll better in, Manitoba (4 seats) or Saskatchewan (0 seats) [qm].

The one with 0 seats, just.

[Хahar 🤔]

Map:



Based on the maps Earl puts on Wikipedia.

When the Liberals lose Ontario, you know it's bad.

[MaxQue]

Elections Canada: Strathcona
NDP 19 787
PCC 19 328   
222/223

[2952-0-0]

The riding where I'm in at the moment is dead close:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/elections/fed2008/fragments/generated/ridings/riding35039.html

The riding where I voted in is not so close, as Gary Lunn has won by 4% over the Liberal. Curiously the NDP's votes still got counted.

EDIT: I walked right by the Liberal Campaign HQ a few minutes ago and everything seemed dead quiet.

[Verily]

Map:



Based on the maps Earl puts on Wikipedia.

When the Liberals lose Ontario, you know it's bad.

Actually, the Liberals have lost Ontario and formed a minority government in the past--but that was before the Bloc.



Also, Earl will need a new shade for Nova Scotia to represent <30%.

[Verily]

Time to call Edmonton-Strathcona for the NDP. Duncan leads by 459 votes with only one poll left. At least the Conservative sweep of Alberta lasted only one election.

Also, strong NDP result, relatively speaking, in Edmonton East. Edit: Ah, Ray Martin.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NDP gain Welland

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tories take the two urban Kitchner ridings and a seat in Missysoyaaghhar

[Filuwaúrdjan]

York Centre has turned marginal. Do not adjust your screens, they're fine.

[Verily]

Tories take the two urban Kitchner ridings and a seat in Missysoyaaghhar

Interestingly, Mississauga-Erindale was the seat of Liberal firebrand Carolyn Parrish, probably one of the most left-wing members of the Liberal caucus, until 2006. And thought to be very safe. (Parrish has all sorts of anti-Bush quotes to choose from dating back to 2003-4.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Siksay is hanging on by the skin of his teeth... again. But against a Tory this time. He's not out of the woods yet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tories take the two urban Kitchner ridings and a seat in Missysoyaaghhar

Interestingly, Mississauga-Erindale was the seat of Liberal firebrand Carolyn Parrish, probably one of the most left-wing members of the Liberal caucus, until 2006. And thought to be very safe. (Parrish has all sorts of anti-Bush quotes to choose from dating back to 2003-4.)

Surprising that it fell while South didn't. Perhaps growth tops affluence, but then look at Oakville, Halton... strange, isn't it. I don't get it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Keith Martin continues to play Death Defy! But he's only up by, what, thruppance.

[Verily]

Tories take the two urban Kitchner ridings and a seat in Missysoyaaghhar

Interestingly, Mississauga-Erindale was the seat of Liberal firebrand Carolyn Parrish, probably one of the most left-wing members of the Liberal caucus, until 2006. And thought to be very safe. (Parrish has all sorts of anti-Bush quotes to choose from dating back to 2003-4.)

Surprising that it fell while South didn't. Perhaps growth tops affluence, but then look at Oakville, Halton... strange, isn't it. I don't get it.

Paul Szabo was much more entrenched as an incumbent. That's my best guess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tories take the two urban Kitchner ridings and a seat in Missysoyaaghhar

Interestingly, Mississauga-Erindale was the seat of Liberal firebrand Carolyn Parrish, probably one of the most left-wing members of the Liberal caucus, until 2006. And thought to be very safe. (Parrish has all sorts of anti-Bush quotes to choose from dating back to 2003-4.)

Surprising that it fell while South didn't. Perhaps growth tops affluence, but then look at Oakville, Halton... strange, isn't it. I don't get it.

Paul Szabo was much more entrenched as an incumbent. That's my best guess.

I suppose him having a European surname can't have hurt.

[Хahar 🤔]

York Centre has turned marginal. Do not adjust your screens, they're fine.

*adjusts screen*

[Verily]

Anyway, analysis.

Dion is obviously gone; expect him to resign as leader within the month if not the week. Ignatieff will probably succeed him, although Rae will try again, and Martha Hall Findlay may act as a kingmaker. (It's telling that all three likely leadership candidates are from the Toronto area.)

This should be good enough to keep the Conservatives in line behind Harper, at least for now. Same goes for Layton, and Mulcair's maneuverings will be cut short by the lack of fellow Quebec NDPers in Parliament and his razor-thin re-election margin.

Duceppe, well, the Bloc doesn't really have any other choices. He might lead the PQ if Pauline Marois calls it quits for whatever reason, but otherwise he'll be around for a while. I'm not sure about May, whether she will get the blame for failing to secure a seat or credit for posting a few very strong results across the country and breaking out of Harris's 4% range. I lean towards her sticking around at least until the legally mandated 2009 election, but probably not thereafter.

[Verily]

Tories take the two urban Kitchner ridings and a seat in Missysoyaaghhar

Interestingly, Mississauga-Erindale was the seat of Liberal firebrand Carolyn Parrish, probably one of the most left-wing members of the Liberal caucus, until 2006. And thought to be very safe. (Parrish has all sorts of anti-Bush quotes to choose from dating back to 2003-4.)

Surprising that it fell while South didn't. Perhaps growth tops affluence, but then look at Oakville, Halton... strange, isn't it. I don't get it.

Paul Szabo was much more entrenched as an incumbent. That's my best guess.

I suppose him having a European surname can't have hurt.

True. Anti-Muslim sentiment may have played a role in Miss.-Erindale.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True. Anti-Muslim sentiment may have played a role in Miss.-Erindale.

It certainly did in 2006.

[Verily]

Two tight races to watch in Quebec still, in Ahuntsic and in Brossard-La Prairie (both Lib-BQ marginals). Brossard-La Prairie would be the only Liberal seat in Quebec outside of Montreal-Laval and Hull.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looking around Vancouver... I knew that Chan was doomed, but that margin I hadn't thought possible...

[Verily]

Anyone else kind of shocked by how tight Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier ended up being? Imagine if the Conservatives had run a candidate.