Canada 2008: Official Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone else kind of shocked by how tight Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier ended up being? Imagine if the Conservatives had run a candidate.

Yes. Pleasantly. Yet also with some frustration. If only...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Siksay and Dosanjh have hung on. And Martin has won by 68 votes.

[Torie]

The Conservatives end up with 143 seats. They just were nosed out by 62 votes or something in a BC riding, and are not in the hunt for the remaining four seats out.

[Хahar 🤔]

If Rae is elected leader, how much do NDP numbers in Ontario jump?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Rae is elected leader, how much do NDP numbers in Ontario jump?

The NDP numbers in Torono Centre haven't exactly leapt up...

[Meeker]

I think a lot of Ontario voters still have pretty unpleasant memories of the Rae Government. I'm not quite sure how helpful he would be.

[Meeker]

Nunavut called for the Conservatives. Only ones left uncalled are Edmonton-Strathcona and Brossard-La Prairie

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In totally not Liberal leadership election related news, Kennedy won his seat, Iggy increased his majority and I think Rae may have won by more than Graham did. And Dryden nearly lost in what was, for decades, an extremely safe seat.

[cinyc]

The Conservatives end up with 143 seats. They just were nosed out by 62 votes or something in a BC riding, and are not in the hunt for the remaining four seats out.

That was Keith Martin's riding (Esquimalt-Juan La Fuca).  Martin is a Liberal, but small c conservative/libertarian who was behind the push to rid Canada's human rights commissions of their ability to squelch free speech.  So that Liberal win might be considered a conservative win, too.

[Cubby]

Harper didn't get a majority, so I'm satisfied.

I saw Jack Layton speak for the first time (on C-SPAN). I was impressed with what I saw.

Once again I am shocked at how little news coverage this election has gotten in the States. At least C-SPAN covered it, but besides that its as if the American media takes pride in not giving a damn about foreign elections. And its not because of our own election or the economic crisis, its been like this the last 2 Canadian elections.

I am dissapointed that the Conservatives gained Kenora, Egmont and Miramichi, but glad that the NDP got a seat in Alberta. Sorensen got over 80% in Crowfoot again! What a god-awful place that must be. I'm very annoyed that Nunavut went to the Conservatives. Did they even want Nunavut to be created in the first place? I'm also glad that the NDP regained Churchill.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm back, y'all. I'm rather satisfied with the results. I did say we'd win 37 seats, didn't I? Just not in the same areas.

I'm very surprised about Sudbury, shocker of the night for sure! And, I LOVE NORTHERN ONTARIO!

[Smid]

Fantastic result in Thornhill. Peter Kent was a strong candidate. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a Parliamentary Secretaryship.

[Hatman 🍁]

Fantastic result in Thornhill. Peter Kent was a strong candidate. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a Parliamentary Secretaryship.

One of the guys working on the Ottawa South campaign is from Thornhill. (Jewish, of course). He was very pissed at the results there.

Overall, terrible result for us in Ottawa South. Ugh... I didn't think it was possible to do worse than the 2007 provincial election. At least we beat the arrogant prick running for the Green Party.

As for Ottawa Centre, where I voted... hip hip hurrah!

[Smid]

Fantastic result in Thornhill. Peter Kent was a strong candidate. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a Parliamentary Secretaryship.

One of the guys working on the Ottawa South campaign is from Thornhill. (Jewish, of course). He was very pissed at the results there.

Overall, terrible result for us in Ottawa South. Ugh... I didn't think it was possible to do worse than the 2007 provincial election. At least we beat the arrogant prick running for the Green Party.

As for Ottawa Centre, where I voted... hip hip hurrah!

From what I hear, it was the Jewish vote that handed it to the Conservatives there.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

How long until Dion gets the boot? I must admit I find it funny that Dion says that the Liberals could have actually won the election if they had more time to campaign. I doubt even if they had more time to do so that the Liberals would have done so.

[minionofmidas]

Meh. I was secretly hoping for at least 43, same as 1988. And for Tories under the crucially all-important psychological number of 133.
Don't think I only got up - I spent the past 70 minutes on the CBC and CanadaVotes (and electionprediction) websites.

Care to tell me why no one's ever bothered to point out Welland to me?
Oh and to Saskatchewan and to Strathcona! I picked the right avatar.

[minionofmidas]

bq is in trouble in brome-missisquoi

Well spotted. A possible Liberal takeback in the Estrie; not something anyone had predicted, I think.

No, I think people were aware Brome-Missisquoi might be in danger. At least, I was. But I think the Bloc will hold it, barely.

I think it was sort of "Liberals won't take a seat in the Estrie back, but if they do it's this one".

[minionofmidas]

My god. When are boundaries redrawn?

I think before the next election. Think means hope. But there's been a new census.

Nope, no remap after censi ending in 6. You'll have to wait til after the 2011 Census.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My god. When are boundaries redrawn?

I think before the next election. Think means hope. But there's been a new census.

Nope, no remap after censi ending in 6. You'll have to wait til after the 2011 Census.

Fuck. Though maybe the next election will be a while after that. Sort of amusing that the NDP did better in Saskatchewan than Manitoba, but won no seats in the former and four in the latter...

[minionofmidas]

The Parliament would have to last its entire term (5 years that is, not 10 months. ), and the boundary commission take as long as last time (which was much less than the four times before that, law change maybe?) or shorter to complete its review, for new boundaries to be in effect for the next election. It's exceedingly unlikely.

[Hatman 🍁]

Harper wants to add seats to BC, AB and ON, I dont know when they will do that, and if they would change borders in the other provinces or not at that time.

Anyways, I happy to say I did better in my predictions in Ontario than electionpredictions.org. That's all that matters. (Their site says they have 10 wrong, but missed Kitchener-Waterloo and just counted wrong. They got 12 wrong.

I was right when they weren't in...

Parkdale-High Park (too bad to, Peggy Nash was great!)
Mississauga South
Oakville

and the one seat I got wrong that they didn't was Newmarket-Aurora.

[minionofmidas]

PR... using the same setup as  2006...

Newfieland
Liberal 4 (+1)
NDP 2 (+1)
CPC 1 (-2)

Nova Scotia
Liberal 4 (0)
NDP 3 (-1)
CPC 3 (0)
Greens 1 (+1)
...the obvious problem (as also wherever else an Independent does well) that the Wet Party would have gotten some scattered votes outside of CCMV under this system, which might have been enough to push him to victory (instead of a Liberal) - he wasn't that far off.

PEI
Liberal 2 (-1)
CPC 2 (+1)

New Brunswick
CPC 4 (0)
Liberal 4 (0)
NDP 2 (0)
...even though the CPC overtook the Liberals in the popular vote. I was worried about NB by the way. Damn. Why didn't I post that?* Meh. I'd have gotten the exact gains wrong anyhow.

Manitoba
CPC 7 (+1)
NDP 3 (-1)
Liberal 3 (-1)
Greenies 1 (+1)
...though the NDP overtook the Liberals.

Saskatchewan
CPC 8 (0)
NDP 4 (+1)
Liberal 2 (-1)

Territories
CPC 1 (0)
Liberal 1 (0)
NDP 1 (0)
CPC went from third to first. Surprised *how* badly Ittinuar did.




*Answer is: Because I gave up on my seat-by-seat prediction when I noticed that that would involve doing Québec, non-Northern Ontario, and Metro Vancouver, and didn't post what little I had.

Harper wants to add seats to BC, AB and ON, I dont know when they will do that, and if they would change borders in the other provinces or not at that time.

Maybe he just wants to change the law so that every Census is used? Because that would (I suppose. Haven't done the math, actually, just judging from past performance) add new seats to these three and leave the totals elsewhere unchanged. These three are proportional to each other and to a fictitious total number of seats (283 I think), everywhere else is overrepresented to varying legally guaranteed degrees.

[Hatman 🍁]

Other errors...

BC I got Surrey North wrong as well as Newton-North Delta when they got them right while I got Saanich-Gulf Islands correct when they didn't. -1 for me

In Manitoba, I was correct with Churchill when they weren't. +1 for me.

Quebec
I got wrong Charlesborug-Haute-Saint Charles and Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean which they got correct. -2 for me

Newfoundland, I got Avalon wrong while they didn't. -1 for me

So, the net difference is -1 for me Oh well, I was close. And I beat them in Ontario!

[minionofmidas]

In Manitoba, I was correct with Churchill when they weren't. +1 for me.

Yeah, I was quite puzzled how they got that one wrong... nobrainer, it seemed to me, almost.

[Hatman 🍁]

In Manitoba, I was correct with Churchill when they weren't. +1 for me.

Yeah, I was quite puzzled how they got that one wrong... nobrainer, it seemed to me, almost.

Democraticspace got it wrong too, iirc.