Canada 2008: Official Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Manitoba, I was correct with Churchill when they weren't. +1 for me.

Yeah, I was quite puzzled how they got that one wrong... nobrainer, it seemed to me, almost.

They must have assumed that the defrocked Dipper incumbent's vote would head Toryward for whatever reason. Probably the worst call the site made.

[minionofmidas]

Isle de Montréal
Lib 8 (+1)
Bloc 5 (-1)
Con 3 (0)
NDP 2 (+1)
Greens 0 (-1)

Really close between the 17th to 19th seats - 8th Lib, 3rd Con, 3rd NDP in that order. 19th seat would have been an NDP seat last time around as well. Green seat falls from 18th to 21st (although I suppose they would have rallied the votes to hold the seat if this system was used. Especially as they didn't stand against Dion as things are.)

Québec Nord-Est (ie Québec-Ville, Chicoutimi, 3 Rivières and as far west as Montcalm)
Bloc 8 (0)
CPC 5 (-1)
Liberal 3 (+1)
NDP 1 (0)
Arthur not even close. And adding him to the Torie pile (they didn't run against him after all) doesn't change anything either. Very close between the third Lib and a second Dipper though.

Québec Nord-Ouest (Laval and almost the entire leftbank suburbia, Outaouais, and MaxQué)
Bloc 6 (-2)
Liberal 4 (+1)
CPC 3 (0)
NDP 2 (+1)
Quite surprised how well the NDP did here, btw (I don't mean the Outaouais; that was obvious.) Then again, the showing in places like these (14.5 and second place in Rivière du Nord!) explains why the NDP didn't make any gains (nor come close, except for Gatineau) despite doing as well as predicted provincewide... I expected their vote gains to be more localized. My bad, perhaps. *recalls 2004 election*

Québec Sud-Est (as far as Sherbrooke basically)
Bloc 5 (-1)
CPC 5 (0)
Liberal 2 (0)
NDP 1 (+1)
Interesting pattern btw... the Tories seem to have piled up where they won in 2006, receded elsewhere.

Québec Sud-Ouest
Bloc 6 (0)
Liberal 3 (+1)
CPC 2 (-1)
NDP 1 (0)
NDP barely loses out in three out of five Québec constituencies... this might make me depressed if it were real life.

[Hatman 🍁]

In Manitoba, I was correct with Churchill when they weren't. +1 for me.

Yeah, I was quite puzzled how they got that one wrong... nobrainer, it seemed to me, almost.

They must have assumed that the defrocked Dipper incumbent's vote would head Toryward for whatever reason. Probably the worst call the site made.

That, and Oakville. Why the hell would they have Oakville going Liberal and Mississauga South going Conservative? boggles the mind. Erindale was a real shocker, but I have heard that Alghabra is a terrible MP, so it's good he's out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note to "stars"... fear Meili Faille!

[Hash]

This country sucks. Horrible results.

[minionofmidas]

Edmonton
CPC 5 (0)
NDP 2 (+1)
Liberal 1 (-1)
Gets to be (just barely) 6-1-1 if you add the iCPC vote to the CPC total.

Calgary
CPC 6 (0)
Liberal 1 (0)
Greens 1 (+1)
NDP 0 (-1)
Btw, didn't the Liberals do better in Calgary than in Edmonton at the last provincial election (in seats only I think. Or was it in votes only? Whatever.) Yeah well, they came within a percentage point of repeating that at a national level (15.04% in Ed, 14.23% in Cal). Meanwhile the NDP is more than twice in strong in Edmonton (19.36% vs 9.23%.) And the Greens are stronger in Calgary (10.95% vs 7.19%). At least the Tories are still much stronger in Calgary, so sanity's prevailing, really: 63.50% vs 54.13%.

Rural Alberta
CPC 10 (0)
NDP 1 (0)
Greens 1 (+1)
Liberals 0 (-1)
For full disclosure: CPC 73.73%, NDP 10.47%, Greens 8.26%, Liberals 6.47%. Lol. NDP now ahead of the Liberals in every rural Albertan riding.

[minionofmidas]

BC Interior - Fraser Valley
CPC 8 (+1)
NDP 3 (0)
Liberal 1 (-2)
Greens 1 (+1)
Came damn close to third place here, too. Liberal vote must have downright collapsed in places.

Vancouver Island
CPC 3 (+1)
NDP 2 (-1)
Lib 1 (0)
NDP would be stronger, but not in first place, if it wasn't for Julian West. Then again the Liberal vote is probably squeezed about as low as it can go in the three northern ridings. Probably cancels out, at least very approximately.

Metro Vancouver
CPC 7 (+1)
Liberal 5 (-1)
NDP 4 (-1)
Greens 1 (+1)
...obvious tactical voting gone nucular caveat...

Ontario some other time.

[Smid]

Btw, didn't the Liberals do better in Calgary than in Edmonton at the last provincial election (in seats only I think. Or was it in votes only? Whatever.)

That's because Stelmach's an idiot who is unpopular in Calgary, not because Calgary necessarily favours the Liberals, but rather because they disfavour the Tory Premier.

[minionofmidas]

Btw, didn't the Liberals do better in Calgary than in Edmonton at the last provincial election (in seats only I think. Or was it in votes only? Whatever.)

That's because Stelmach's an idiot who is unpopular in Calgary, not because Calgary necessarily favours the Liberals, but rather because they disfavour the Tory Premier.

And mostly because there's also an NDP in Edmonton.

[minionofmidas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trying to piece this thing together... I suppose Beaches - East York is in Inner Toronto. (So are the Don Valley seats and Eglinton-Lawrence, but not York South-Weston.) York - Simcoe must be in what Earl tells me should be called York - Durham (the xy-Oshawa thingy) - ep now lists it as a fourth Simcoe constituency, and with reason when I look at the outline, but, well, strict comparability compels. It could have been York S - Weston in Inner Toronto instead, of course. Only one way to find out - recalculate 2006 figures and see if it makes a difference. Except that it doesn't. I used Beaches in Inner for the 2008 calculations.
The SWern split must have Cambridge, Oxford, Lambton in the London-Windsor constituency, anywhere north of that in Simcoe - Kitchener. Oh, and Dufferin - Caledon is still listed as a 905 constituency on electionprediction, and seems to belong in Mississauga etc.

Cough. Ahem.

Inner Toronto
Lib 5 (0)
NDP 2 (-1)
Con 2 (0)
Green 1 (+1)
As a side benefit of having to calculate the 2006 distribution, I can tell you that the Liberals lost about 40,000 voters - 1 in 6 - compared to 2006 and the NDP almost 30,000 - 1 in 5. The Tory vote total was down by a thousand, about 1%. Didn't calculate how much the Green vote is up, although up it certainly is. So much for lowered turnout.

Scarborough - York - Etobicoke
Lib 7 (-1)
Con 4 (+1)
NDP 2 (0)

York - Durham (christ, this double usage of place names without cardinal points attached still gets on my tits. It's the Canadian thing to do I guess, though.)
Con 5 (+1)
Lib 4 (-2)
NDP 1 (0)
Green 1 (+1)
Swung a fair bit, this area. Green gain is pretty tight against either a 6th Con or 5th Lib.

Mississauga - Brampton (shouldn't this be Peel - Halton? Or at least Mississauga - Brampton - Halton?)
Con 5 (0)
Lib 5 (-1)
NDP 1 (0)
Green 1 (+1)
Close against 6th Tory. Tories outpolled Grits by 12,000 votes here, but won 5 seats to Liberals' 7.

Hamilton - Niagara
Con 4 (+1)
NDP 2 (0)
Lib 2 (-1)
Tightest of margins (under 300 votes) against 3-3-2.

London - Windsor
Con 6 (0)
Lib 4 (-1)
NDP 3 (0)
Green 1 (+1)
irl it's 10-1-3... Lib vote is just too spread out.

Simcoe - Kitchener - Huron
Con 6 (+1)
Lib 3 (-1)
NDP 1 (-1)
Green 1 (+1)
I think Greens were pretty close here even last time around (it includes both Guelph and BGOS...)

Northern Ontario
NDP 4 (+1)
Con 3 (0)
Lib 3 (-1)

Eastern Ontario
Con 9 (+2)
Lib 5 (-1)
NDP 2 (-1)
Green 1 (0)

[Verily]

Btw, didn't the Liberals do better in Calgary than in Edmonton at the last provincial election (in seats only I think. Or was it in votes only? Whatever.)

That's because Stelmach's an idiot who is unpopular in Calgary, not because Calgary necessarily favours the Liberals, but rather because they disfavour the Tory Premier.

And mostly because there's also an NDP in Edmonton.

Well, apparently there's a Green Party in Calgary. Calgary Centre and Calgary Centre-North were two of the best Green ridings in the country.

[minionofmidas]

Btw, didn't the Liberals do better in Calgary than in Edmonton at the last provincial election (in seats only I think. Or was it in votes only? Whatever.)

That's because Stelmach's an idiot who is unpopular in Calgary, not because Calgary necessarily favours the Liberals, but rather because they disfavour the Tory Premier.

And mostly because there's also an NDP in Edmonton.

Well, apparently there's a Green Party in Calgary. Calgary Centre and Calgary Centre-North were two of the best Green ridings in the country.

There is a Green Party everywhere in Alberta. Although it is stronger in Calgary than in Edmonton... but that may be partly due to the lack of any sliver of reason to tactically vote for somebody else.

[minionofmidas]

Ta-daa. Canada.

CPC 127 (+7)
Liberal 87 (-12)
NDP 52 (-1)
Bloc 30 (-4)
Greens 12 (+10)

[Hatman 🍁]

As long as we're doing PR, let's go use my old PR Senate routine. 10 seats per province.

NL
Lib: 5
NDP: 3
Cons: 2

PE
Lib: 5
Cons: 4
NDP: 1

NS
Lib: 3
NDP: 3
Cons: 3
Green: 1

NB
Cons: 4
Lib: 3
NDP: 2
Green: 1

QC
BQ: 4
Lib: 3
Cons: 2
NDP: 1

ON
Cons: 4
Lib: 3
NDP: 2
Green: 1

MB
Cons: 5
NDP: 2
Lib: 2
Green: 1

SK
Cons: 5
NDP: 3
Lib: 1
Green: 1

AB
Cons: 7
NDP: 1
Lib: 1
Green: 1

BC
Cons: 4
NDP: 3
Lib: 2
Green: 1

NU
Lib: 1
Cons: 1

NT
NDP: 1
Cons: 1

YT
Lib: 1
Cons: 1

Totals
Cons: 43
Lib: 30
NDP: 22
Green: 7
BQ: 4

[minionofmidas]

Any thoughts on how IRV would play out?
Say, use a few select seats you know well   (and that are interesting, no 47%+ on first round results please)

[Hatman 🍁]

Any thoughts on how IRV would play out?
Say, use a few select seats you know well   (and that are interesting, no 47%+ on first round results please)

I can use poll data for second preferences.

[minionofmidas]

Any thoughts on how IRV would play out?
Say, use a few select seats you know well   (and that are interesting, no 47%+ on first round results please)

I can use poll data for second preferences.

As a starting point, or for a rough estimate of national totals. To get it "right" obviously requires taking the candidates, the local campaign, the type of people who vote for party x in riding z, into account.
Which makes it hard work... :/

[Hatman 🍁]

Any thoughts on how IRV would play out?
Say, use a few select seats you know well   (and that are interesting, no 47%+ on first round results please)

Shoosh!

I can use poll data for second preferences.

As a starting point, or for a rough estimate of national totals. To get it "right" obviously requires taking the candidates, the local campaign, the type of people who vote for party x in riding z, into account.
Which makes it hard work... :/

I'm going to use EKOS data for this, because they weren't that far off from the results.

Conservative voters break down as follows...

Liberals: 18.8
NDP: 15.2
Greens: 14.1
BQ: 2.2
Exhausted: 49.7

Liberals...
NDP: 35.8
Green: 23.7
Conservatives: 12.6
BQ: 4.4
Exhausted: 23.5

NDP:
Liberal: 33.9
Green: 25.1
Conservative: 13.8
BQ: 8.5
Exhausted: 18.6

Greens:
Liberals: 27.9
NDP: 27.6
Conservative: 16.9
BQ: 7.9
Exhausted: 19.7

BQ:
NDP: 25.4
Green: 20.8
Liberal: 17.0
Conservative: 8.4
Exhausted: 28.4

Calculation will have to be made for Quebec to factor in the BQ

[Hatman 🍁]

We'll start with Gatineau...

(I'm going to multiply the BQ #s by 3.8 and multiply all others by .76)

BQ: 29.1
NDP: 26.1
Lib: 25.4
Cons: 16.8
Greens: 2.6 --> eliminated

2nd round
BQ: 29.9
NDP: 26.6
Lib: 26.0
Cons: 17.1

3rd round
BQ: 31.3
Lib: 30.2
NDP: 28.6


4th round
BQ: 40.5
Lib: 37.6

[Hatman 🍁]

Guelph

1st round:

Lib: 32.2
Cons: 29.2
Green: 21.1
NDP: 16.5
Others: 0.9

Libs: 32.3
Cons: 29.4
Greens: 21.3
NDP: 16.8

Libs: 39.4
Cons: 32.3
Greens: 26.5

Libs: 48.6
Cons: 37.9

ok, the numbers aren't right, but you get the idea

[Hash]

Final results in Ottawa-Vanier

Liberal 46.23 (+3.92)
Conservative 27.26 (-1.41)
NDP 17.07 (-4.74)
Greenies 8.57 (+1.97)
Indie 0.44 (+0.44)
Stalinists 0.25 (+0.04)
SoCred 0.19 (+0.19)

[Lief 🗽]

Canadian elections are so depressing. 4 left of center parties against 1 right of center party in a FPTP system is fail.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canadian elections are so depressing. 4 left of center parties against 1 right of center party in a FPTP system is fail.

Whoa now, I resent your asertations that the Greens or the Liberals are "left of centre". The Greens for example eschew any such labels, and the Liberals are centrist.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Canadian elections are so depressing. 4 left of center parties against 1 right of center party in a FPTP system is fail.

Whoa now, I resent your assertions that the Greens or the Liberals are "left of centre". The Greens for example eschew any such labels, and the Liberals are centrist.

Whoa now, I resent your assertions that your opinion of where the Liberals sit politically, that is your opinion.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Canadian elections are so depressing. 4 left of center parties against 1 right of center party in a FPTP system is fail.

I know it's sad, but how bad can Canadian conservatives be?