Canada 2008: Official Results Thread

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The first, and probably most important, move is whether Dion resigns or tries to stay on. It would be better for everyone if he resigned, as Ignatieff would likely take charge and consolidate his position before anyone else could mount a challenge. Bob Rae will certainly try, but most of my Liberal friends are leaning toward Iggy - some out of admiration, some out of a desire to avoid any drawn out leadership contest.

If there is a true leadership contest, I imagine a lot of people will throw in their hat just to gain name recognition, but most of them wouldn't go very far. Ruby Dhalia is popular and hot but doesn't have enough support within the caucus to get very far. Same thing with Trudeau - his name recognition can't make up for the fact that he's still only been an MP for 2 days. Kennedy's good but his troubles in French make him unlikely to get much further than he did in the last leadership race. The outsiders, McKenna and Manley, would be the most likely ones to succeed if there's a true contest, though I'm not sure either of them wants to dive in right now.

Rae's got more money than Mammon and a chip on his shoulder to match, so one way or another he'll probably make a stab at the top job. I sincerely doubt he'll get in, though. Rae Days still send a chill down most Ontarians' spines, Liberals in particular. There's also a consensus that the party should move toward the centre and away from the centre left where Dion took it (sorry Earl)

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There's also a consensus that the party should move toward the centre and away from the centre left where Dion took it (sorry Earl)

...uh... Suicide Squad?

The path (even further) towards the centre is the path towards where oblivion becomes, not a certainty (the party has survived for too long for that), but at least an option. Just ask Paul Martin. Just ask Palmer.
A Liberal majority requires keeping the NDP down. That requires a leftist course (and a charismatic leader).


EDIT: Turner. Not Palmer. How embarassing.

Meh. Damn bland random surnames.

Martin and Turner lost because of their poor organization and bad luck of rising to power at the time when the public was souring on the Liberals overall, not because they were centrists.

The Liberals didn't lose this election because they weren't leftist enough. They lost way more seats to the Tories than to the NDP and, Northern Ontario notwithstanding, they lost (or failed to win back) in places where centrist voters were the deciding factor.

Liberals bleed support to the NDP (and Greens, now) not because of a sudden leftist reawakening among Canadians, but because they're weak overall: poor leadership, scandal, fatigue, bad economic stewardship (in the 70s and 80s, less so now). Voters get tired of the complacency that characterizes long stretches of Liberal tenure, so they move their vote elsewhere. The Tories are the main beneficiaries of this disillusionment, as centrist voters switch sides; this overall weakening of the coalition that elects Liberal governments frays the left flank of the party which moves toward the NDP. Once the Liberals regain credibility among centrists (who then abandon the Tories), they regain the support that they lost to the NDP without really having to work at it. My theory for this is that because the NDP can never deliver on its promises by forming a government, its erstwhile-Liberal supporters get frustrated and look elsewhere.

Electoral dynamics aside, my point is that the left isn't as crucial to Liberal victories as the centre-left/centre is. Look at 1997: the Liberals lost support on the left to the NDP, who picked up seats across the country, especially in the East: but the Liberals were still returned with a majority, albeit a slim one. They held onto the centre, almost sweeping Ontario and gaining ground in Quebec, so they stayed in power. They didn't lose any real power until 2004 when scandal and an undivided, credible rightist party emerged and started competing for centrist voters.