Canada 2008: Official Results Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm back, y'all. I'm rather satisfied with the results. I did say we'd win 37 seats, didn't I? Just not in the same areas.

I'm very surprised about Sudbury, shocker of the night for sure! And, I LOVE NORTHERN ONTARIO!

[Hatman 🍁]

Fantastic result in Thornhill. Peter Kent was a strong candidate. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a Parliamentary Secretaryship.

One of the guys working on the Ottawa South campaign is from Thornhill. (Jewish, of course). He was very pissed at the results there.

Overall, terrible result for us in Ottawa South. Ugh... I didn't think it was possible to do worse than the 2007 provincial election. At least we beat the arrogant prick running for the Green Party.

As for Ottawa Centre, where I voted... hip hip hurrah!

[Hatman 🍁]

Harper wants to add seats to BC, AB and ON, I dont know when they will do that, and if they would change borders in the other provinces or not at that time.

Anyways, I happy to say I did better in my predictions in Ontario than electionpredictions.org. That's all that matters. (Their site says they have 10 wrong, but missed Kitchener-Waterloo and just counted wrong. They got 12 wrong.

I was right when they weren't in...

Parkdale-High Park (too bad to, Peggy Nash was great!)
Mississauga South
Oakville

and the one seat I got wrong that they didn't was Newmarket-Aurora.

[Hatman 🍁]

Other errors...

BC I got Surrey North wrong as well as Newton-North Delta when they got them right while I got Saanich-Gulf Islands correct when they didn't. -1 for me

In Manitoba, I was correct with Churchill when they weren't. +1 for me.

Quebec
I got wrong Charlesborug-Haute-Saint Charles and Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean which they got correct. -2 for me

Newfoundland, I got Avalon wrong while they didn't. -1 for me

So, the net difference is -1 for me Oh well, I was close. And I beat them in Ontario!

[Hatman 🍁]

In Manitoba, I was correct with Churchill when they weren't. +1 for me.

Yeah, I was quite puzzled how they got that one wrong... nobrainer, it seemed to me, almost.

Democraticspace got it wrong too, iirc.

[Hatman 🍁]

In Manitoba, I was correct with Churchill when they weren't. +1 for me.

Yeah, I was quite puzzled how they got that one wrong... nobrainer, it seemed to me, almost.

They must have assumed that the defrocked Dipper incumbent's vote would head Toryward for whatever reason. Probably the worst call the site made.

That, and Oakville. Why the hell would they have Oakville going Liberal and Mississauga South going Conservative? boggles the mind. Erindale was a real shocker, but I have heard that Alghabra is a terrible MP, so it's good he's out.

[Hatman 🍁]

As long as we're doing PR, let's go use my old PR Senate routine. 10 seats per province.

NL
Lib: 5
NDP: 3
Cons: 2

PE
Lib: 5
Cons: 4
NDP: 1

NS
Lib: 3
NDP: 3
Cons: 3
Green: 1

NB
Cons: 4
Lib: 3
NDP: 2
Green: 1

QC
BQ: 4
Lib: 3
Cons: 2
NDP: 1

ON
Cons: 4
Lib: 3
NDP: 2
Green: 1

MB
Cons: 5
NDP: 2
Lib: 2
Green: 1

SK
Cons: 5
NDP: 3
Lib: 1
Green: 1

AB
Cons: 7
NDP: 1
Lib: 1
Green: 1

BC
Cons: 4
NDP: 3
Lib: 2
Green: 1

NU
Lib: 1
Cons: 1

NT
NDP: 1
Cons: 1

YT
Lib: 1
Cons: 1

Totals
Cons: 43
Lib: 30
NDP: 22
Green: 7
BQ: 4

[Hatman 🍁]

Any thoughts on how IRV would play out?
Say, use a few select seats you know well   (and that are interesting, no 47%+ on first round results please)

I can use poll data for second preferences.

[Hatman 🍁]

Any thoughts on how IRV would play out?
Say, use a few select seats you know well   (and that are interesting, no 47%+ on first round results please)

Shoosh!

I can use poll data for second preferences.

As a starting point, or for a rough estimate of national totals. To get it "right" obviously requires taking the candidates, the local campaign, the type of people who vote for party x in riding z, into account.
Which makes it hard work... :/

I'm going to use EKOS data for this, because they weren't that far off from the results.

Conservative voters break down as follows...

Liberals: 18.8
NDP: 15.2
Greens: 14.1
BQ: 2.2
Exhausted: 49.7

Liberals...
NDP: 35.8
Green: 23.7
Conservatives: 12.6
BQ: 4.4
Exhausted: 23.5

NDP:
Liberal: 33.9
Green: 25.1
Conservative: 13.8
BQ: 8.5
Exhausted: 18.6

Greens:
Liberals: 27.9
NDP: 27.6
Conservative: 16.9
BQ: 7.9
Exhausted: 19.7

BQ:
NDP: 25.4
Green: 20.8
Liberal: 17.0
Conservative: 8.4
Exhausted: 28.4

Calculation will have to be made for Quebec to factor in the BQ

[Hatman 🍁]

We'll start with Gatineau...

(I'm going to multiply the BQ #s by 3.8 and multiply all others by .76)

BQ: 29.1
NDP: 26.1
Lib: 25.4
Cons: 16.8
Greens: 2.6 --> eliminated

2nd round
BQ: 29.9
NDP: 26.6
Lib: 26.0
Cons: 17.1

3rd round
BQ: 31.3
Lib: 30.2
NDP: 28.6


4th round
BQ: 40.5
Lib: 37.6

[Hatman 🍁]

Guelph

1st round:

Lib: 32.2
Cons: 29.2
Green: 21.1
NDP: 16.5
Others: 0.9

Libs: 32.3
Cons: 29.4
Greens: 21.3
NDP: 16.8

Libs: 39.4
Cons: 32.3
Greens: 26.5

Libs: 48.6
Cons: 37.9

ok, the numbers aren't right, but you get the idea

[Hatman 🍁]

Canadian elections are so depressing. 4 left of center parties against 1 right of center party in a FPTP system is fail.

Whoa now, I resent your asertations that the Greens or the Liberals are "left of centre". The Greens for example eschew any such labels, and the Liberals are centrist.

[Hatman 🍁]

SoCred does not equal the CAP. I don't know what Hashemite is smoking. Probably some elite Parisian cigarettes trying to renounce his Canadianship.

[Hatman 🍁]

Good result in Churchill, Earl.

For sure. I think that makes Ashton the youngest MP

[Hatman 🍁]

Hope it's Ignatieff. More likely will be Kennedy or Trudeau.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rae's got more money than Mammon and a chip on his shoulder to match, so one way or another he'll probably make a stab at the top job. I sincerely doubt he'll get in, though. Rae Days still send a chill down most Ontarians' spines, Liberals in particular. There's also a consensus that the party should move toward the centre and away from the centre left where Dion took it (sorry Earl)

Why are you apologizing? It would be great if the Liberals move more to the right.

[Hatman 🍁]

Please don't put us with the Liberals, again please.

An interesting coalition, that one might see in the future is that of a BQ+Green+NDP one.

If this merger were to happen, they would have ~35% of the vote. Probably not enough to beat the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Please don't put us with the Liberals, again please.

An interesting coalition, that one might see in the future is that of a BQ+Green+NDP one.

If this merger were to happen, they would have ~35% of the vote. Probably not enough to beat the Tories.

The Bloc, while left-leaning, gets votes based not on ideology but on its support for sovereignty. Most of its voters are substantially to the right of the party, which is why its major competition outside of Anglophone areas is the Conservatives. If it were to attempt to play a role in national politics(which by implication would require dropping sovereignty) it would likely lose most of its voters either to the Conservatives or to a rightwing alternative which is what happened to the PQ when they took that track last time around.

So the Bloc will take part in national cabinet when hell freezes over, and in one with the Greens and NDP quite a bit thereafter. The Bloc is not into suicide, they do want to collect their Canadian pensions after all.

Merger's probably not the best word. But the BQ will die one day, and it's possible that many of its members may at that point join a new left wing party with the NDP and Greens.

[Hatman 🍁]

Work underway on party vote maps.

I already did the Tories and Greenies. I'm working on Liberals.

I'm disappointed you didn't use my map

[Hatman 🍁]

CAPE BRETON SOUTH (1962/06/18)
Candidate    Party    Occupation    Votes    Elected
MACINNIS, Malcolm Vic    N.D.P.    adult educator     17,409     
MACINNIS, Donald    P.C.    mine worker     13,602     
MACINNIS, Earl V.    Lib    salesman     7,774     

Had to share that. Hilarious.

There was a riding in Vancouver a few elections ago with like 4 Wongs on the ballot.

Fascinating to see how utterly destroyed the Liberals have been in many of their ancient strongholds and to see the obvious disintergration in others. To think that this process only really started eight or so years ago and only become obvious four years ago... you can't even see where the old Red Belt was let alone still see it...

Red belt?

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry, just three wongs...

VANCOUVER KINGSWAY (2000/11/27)

LEUNG, Sophia    Lib    parliamentarian     16,118     
WONG, Alice    CA    college administrator     11,076     
WONG, Victor    N.D.P.    project manager     5,924     
WONG, Kanman    P.C.    computer salesperson     1,805

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry, just three wongs...

VANCOUVER KINGSWAY (2000/11/27)

LEUNG, Sophia    Lib    parliamentarian     16,118     
WONG, Alice    CA    college administrator     11,076     
WONG, Victor    N.D.P.    project manager     5,924     
WONG, Kanman    P.C.    computer salesperson     1,805

Same Alice Wong who was just elected in Richmond?

Yes

[Hatman 🍁]

Bigger version is in the gallery, etc.

Work underway on party vote maps.

Are the territories anywhere on that map?

What do you think?

Dunno. Might be hidden.

it's why my map should be used.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I noticed the CTV maps. I thought they stole my idea... I guess maybe they did.

$750 is probably a decent price for these maps.