Rothenberg: Why Dole will likely lose and why Collins won't

[MarkWarner08]

This is a particularly good article about electoral politics. Rothenberg nails the textbook mistakes Dole has made. Underestimating her opponent (and the ferocity of Schumer's ads) has helped sink Dole's chances.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/14/senate.dole/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

Landrieu has also followed the Collins model. Meanwhile, Chambliss seems to have been caught flat-footed by his freefall in the polls. Unlike Dole, Chambliss has the benefit of time and a relatively strong McCain victory to help him.

[Sam Spade]

Dole has made a lot of mistakes (to put it mildly), but I think she has a better chance than Stu or you do.  Just call it gut.  It's also McCain having to be a little active here.  I've changed my opinion on this race a little since we last talked.

Chambliss could be taken down, but Martin has to be able to get traction beyond the Obama total.  And with three weeks left, that window will start to slowly close soon.

[Keystone Phil]

It just confirms everything I've thought about Dole. I think I'm moving beyond being pissed off about her losing. What a waste.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Dole has made a lot of mistakes (to put it mildly), but I think she has a better chance than Stu or you do.  Just call it gut.  It's also McCain having to be a little active here.  I've changed my opinion on this race a little since we last talked.

Chambliss could be taken down, but Martin has to be able to get traction beyond the Obama total.  And with three weeks left, that window will start to slowly close soon.

Right now, I'd go as far as to call Dole a 50/50 shot for reelection. She doesn't need McCain to carry the state, necessarily, but I'll be damned if it wouldn't help her out.

[Dan the Roman]

Doles problem is not whether McCain wins or not but that she had been doing worse than McCain(or Hagan better than Obama).

Also keep an eye on Maine, people on the ground there are less confident than national observers about the Senate race. Collins is in good shape, but disturbing things have been filtering down from the Presidential race in the last week and a half. The Ayers ads may or may not be doing damage to Obama, but their presence on the Maine airwaves without any corresponding investment in surrogates or gotv is doing damage to Collins. From talking with people I know on her campaign she is down to around 50 now, down from 55-56, though as with Chambliss, Allen has not benefited and is stuck around 40%. That said, there is now not only the issue of positive Obama coattails but a very real issue of negative coattails from McCain that are giving State Reps trouble.

That said don't be shocked if this closes. The Collins people expect this to be 53-47.

[HardRCafé]

Are you actually basing this on anything?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Dole has made a lot of mistakes (to put it mildly), but I think she has a better chance than Stu or you do.  Just call it gut.  It's also McCain having to be a little active here.  I've changed my opinion on this race a little since we last talked.

Chambliss could be taken down, but Martin has to be able to get traction beyond the Obama total.  And with three weeks left, that window will start to slowly close soon.

Right now, I'd go as far as to call Dole a 50/50 shot for reelection. She doesn't need McCain to carry the state, necessarily, but I'll be damned if it wouldn't help her out.

I don't see how both Obama and Dole could win the state, considering Hagan is white.

[Dan the Roman]

Yeah I actually used to work with Collins two years ago and I know a lot of her staff, since most were either there then or hired out of the Maine CRs. I spoke with two people last week, one of whom was Romney's manager in the state and is fairly hooked in on what the state party is doing, and the other who is on the reelection campaign.

The two things I heard were:

1. That McCain is not seriously playing in the 2nd CD. He has no GOTV operation anywhere in the state, is not campaigning, and is just running ads. Those ads though are having an effect, but its primarily on Democrats who are solid Obama voters but split their tickets below. The canvassers the Collins campaign has sent out have been running into a lot of people in the last week who say "We're Democrats but we love the Senator, but the ads on TV make it hard for us to vote for any Republican this year". This is not a solely Collins issue and in fact she is surviving it better. Candidates for Legislature are being told that people won't vote for them.

2. The girl I spoke with on the campaign said they are now up in high single digits and that they were up 15-17 until about a week and a half ago. Almost all of that is Democrats and Democratic leaning independents moving into undecided. Allen has not moved at all.

[HardRCafé]

I don't see how both Obama and Dole could win the state, considering Hagan is white.

Because Obama is actually popular and Hagan is not?