BRTD's county map predictions

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A little less.

[Ronnie]

Probably because of black turnout in Montgomery and Butler.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Appleton and Green Bay were tough ones. I decided to trust Beef's judgment:

[Nym90]

I realize you probably hate that county, but I can't see St. Croix going for McCain. I'm sure it will be close, but this is the type of place that the financial crisis should hurt Republicans a lot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually the county I hate most (beside the obvious choices of Waukesha and the like) is Brown. Hate hate hate hate hate that place. The reason should be obvious.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

More interesting than I expected actually:

[Nhoj]

I realize you probably hate that county, but I can't see St. Croix going for McCain. I'm sure it will be close, but this is the type of place that the financial crisis should hurt Republicans a lot.

living near st croix id say it will very likely go for mccain its a bunch of white middle ranged middle class people who moved from minnesota the kind of people who are mccains base and the last time i was there i saw only mccain signs not that that says all that much but theres alot of republicans in that area.
im not even sure my county [barron]will go obama but it does stand a pretty good chance being about even in the last two elections and its a fairly working class area on whole i think the Wisconsin map is a bit on the high side for obama but it could go that way.

[War on Want]

Good new maps, I would flip a few more rural Illinois counties(ethanol) though.

[Lief 🗽]

More interesting than I expected actually:

Why do you have Obama doing so badly in Illinois? I'd expect him to win the vast majority of counties.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

More interesting than I expected actually:

Why do you have Obama doing so badly in Illinois? I'd expect him to win the vast majority of counties.

Kerry got 54%, he's pulling around 60%, that's a strong gain but still not enough to flip those rural blue counties. But still, he has DuPage!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But still, he has DuPage!

Urgh.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But still, he has DuPage!

Urgh.

Hey, you know I don't like that place anymore than you do. It's just the historical factor!

[Lief 🗽]

I don't know, maybe. I'm just looking at Dick Durbin's 2002 map, where he got 60% to 38% (pretty much exactly what the new Rass poll says Obama is getting right now):

[Ronnie]

I don't know, maybe. I'm just looking at Dick Durbin's 2002 map, where he got 60% to 38% (pretty much exactly what the new Rass poll says Obama is getting right now):

Rural IL became much more conservative, and Chicago suburbs have become much more liberal since 2002.

[War on Want]

I don't know, maybe. I'm just looking at Dick Durbin's 2002 map, where he got 60% to 38% (pretty much exactly what the new Rass poll says Obama is getting right now):

Obama will not have that much appeal in southern Illinois and I don't think he is as popular with farmers as Durbin is. Ethanol will get him to have some very good results in the central part of the state though I think.

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't know, maybe. I'm just looking at Dick Durbin's 2002 map, where he got 60% to 38% (pretty much exactly what the new Rass poll says Obama is getting right now):

Obama has done this before:



Too bad it won't happen this time.

[Nutmeg]

I don't know, maybe. I'm just looking at Dick Durbin's 2002 map, where he got 60% to 38% (pretty much exactly what the new Rass poll says Obama is getting right now):

Rural IL became much more conservative, and Chicago suburbs have become much more liberal since 2002.

I'm not sure I agree with that first part, but with regard to Durbin's success downstate: he's from Springfield, whereas Obama, obviously, is a Chicago pol.  So much of voting patterns in Illinois has long been driven by candidates' and parties' home bases in the three regions - Chicago, its suburbs, and everywhere else.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know, the only really interesting state left is Pennsylvania, but the purpose of this thread is to post county map predictions, not bitch with Phil for 10 pages about I'm a hack for predicting Obama will win Beaver county.

We'll see what comes up later tonight.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rural IL became much more conservative, and Chicago suburbs have become much more liberal since 2002.

As a general rule things do not change that quickly. More significant, perhaps, is the fact that Durbin is a downstate pol (used to be congresscritter for the area around East St Louis IIRC) while Obama is a product of the Chicago machine.

[Nutmeg]

You know, the only really interesting state left is Pennsylvania, but the purpose of this thread is to post county map predictions, not bitch with Phil for 10 pages about I'm a hack for predicting Obama will win Beaver county.

We'll see what comes up later tonight.

What about Georgia?  It looks like that state will have one of the larger swings toward Obama.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You know, the only really interesting state left is Pennsylvania, but the purpose of this thread is to post county map predictions, not bitch with Phil for 10 pages about I'm a hack for predicting Obama will win Beaver county.

We'll see what comes up later tonight.

What about Georgia?  It looks like that state will have one of the larger swings toward Obama.

If there bist a huge swing to Obama in Georgia it'll be because of better Black turnout. And we know were they live anyway.

[War on Want]

You know, the only really interesting state left is Pennsylvania, but the purpose of this thread is to post county map predictions, not bitch with Phil for 10 pages about I'm a hack for predicting Obama will win Beaver county.

We'll see what comes up later tonight.

What about Georgia?  It looks like that state will have one of the larger swings toward Obama.

If there bist a huge swing to Obama in Georgia it'll be because of better Black turnout. And we know were they live anyway.

Yeah, not really interesting. Hell even Atlanta suburbs shouldn't be that interesting.

[Nutmeg]

You know, the only really interesting state left is Pennsylvania, but the purpose of this thread is to post county map predictions, not bitch with Phil for 10 pages about I'm a hack for predicting Obama will win Beaver county.

We'll see what comes up later tonight.

What about Georgia?  It looks like that state will have one of the larger swings toward Obama.

If there bist a huge swing to Obama in Georgia it'll be because of better Black turnout. And we know were they live anyway.

Yeah, not really interesting. Hell even Atlanta suburbs shouldn't be that interesting.

Hmm.  I guess, but I could see some swings in that, how shall I describe it, seatbelt-shaped swath of counties that went for Barnes in 2002 but Purdue in 2006.

[Boris]

But still, he has DuPage!

Urgh.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just realized I basically need to finish these off tonight, since tommorow night I'm going to be training for my new position most of the day, and then doing a late night lit drop. So whatever, whine away Phil: