In its current circumstances, Israel would have voted about 60-40 McCain. Of course, the ramifications of Israel being a state would so completely alter the political landscape of the country and the region that the result might end up completely different.
This seems about right. However, as you mentioned, if Israel was a state then the dynamic would be different and thus its presidential vote. Israelis prefer Republicans because they feel Republicans are more committed to their security, but this problem would have been eliminated if it was a state, and since most American Jews are Democrats, Israel might very well vote Democratic as well in this scenario.
