CA-11/SurveyUSA: McNerney (D) leads Andal (R) by 11

[Tender Branson]

McNerney (D) - 52
Andal (R) - 41

700 registered voters from California's 11th District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/14/08 and 10/15/08, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Calls on 10/15 were made before and after, but not during, the Presidential debate. Of the registered voters, 650 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the November 4 general election.

http://static.cbslocal.com/station/kpix/docs/2008/mcnerney_poll.pdf

[Lunar]

Wait...wait, what is this district?

My understanding was that, at most, there were two competitive districts in CA.  And, of the ones less competitive, I don't remember an 11 anywhere.

I hope this is an incumbent Democrat.

[cannonia]

Pombo's old district.  McNerney won in 06, and the GOP was hoping to win this one back.

Edit: This district stretches from the East Bay (Dublin, Danville) to Tracy, Lodi, and Manteca.

[Horus]

I never understood why people thought this was competitive. I always thought McNerney was fairly safe... not a lock, but fairly safe.

[cannonia]

I never understood why people thought this was competitive. I always thought McNerney was fairly safe... not a lock, but fairly safe.

Because it used to be a fairly safe Republican seat.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     What a chance we threw away here.

[Хahar 🤔]

LOL CAGOP.

This district will stay D forever.

[cannonia]

Until the next GOP resurgence.  The Democrats here don't really have much going for them other than the fact people dislike the GOP more right now.

[cannonia]

By the way, a competent GOP would pour as much resources as possible into this area.  Aside from the 11th CD, there are competitive races for the 15th Assembly and the 5th State Senate districts, with substantial overlaps.

Also, this is the kind of area the GOP should never give up on.  If it can't win the suburbs, where does it expect to win?

[Brittain33]

Redistricting should change this district pretty dramatically. The Bay Area districts need to make up population.

[Mr.Phips]

Yes, this district is likely to be made much safer for McNerney in 2012. 

[Sbane]

By the way, a competent GOP would pour as much resources as possible into this area.  Aside from the 11th CD, there are competitive races for the 15th Assembly and the 5th State Senate districts, with substantial overlaps.

Also, this is the kind of area the GOP should never give up on.  If it can't win the suburbs, where does it expect to win?

I was home just this last weekend and saw a bunch of ads for the 15th by Abram wilson. Republicans got it right and chose a moderate mayor of San Ramon to run and I think he should win. Joan Buchanan's son is in my poli sci class and he basically told us she will probably lose. We will see though. And I second your motion that republicans should never give up on those kinds of areas. How can republicans lose in upper middle class suburbs and still be a national party.

As for Mcnerney he is pretty safe this year. Pleasanton,Dublin and San Ramon have all seen huge demographic changes, and the asians moving in vote about 2-1 democrat. This should be safe for Mcnerney even in 2010 unless there is a huge swing back towards the republicans.

[Verily]

Wait...wait, what is this district?

My understanding was that, at most, there were two competitive districts in CA.  And, of the ones less competitive, I don't remember an 11 anywhere.

I hope this is an incumbent Democrat.

This is the seat Democrats won off of the Republicans in 2006. McNerney is the incumbent; he's a freshman and defeated Richard Pombo for the seat. The district voted for Bush by about six points, although it stands a good chance of voting for Obama.

[Sbane]

Considering how bad the foreclosures are around Stockton, I would bet CA-11 flips to Obama this time.