MO: Rasmussen: Obama leads by 6
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  MO: Rasmussen: Obama leads by 6
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Author Topic: MO: Rasmussen: Obama leads by 6  (Read 1555 times)
ChrisFromNJ
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« on: October 17, 2008, 08:14:10 AM »

http://tinyurl.com/524jxa

Obama: 52
McCain: 46

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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2008, 09:22:53 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2008, 09:30:17 AM by Ronnie »

Whoa, I didn't see that one coming.

Something is ringing in my head that MO won't be 2 points more Dem than the national average.
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Aizen
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2008, 09:38:38 AM »

Whoa. McCain is falling apart here.



Whoa, I didn't see that one coming.

Something is ringing in my head that MO won't be 2 points more Dem than the national average.


That's assuming Obama is only up by 4 points nationally. For all we know, he could be up by 8 points nationally. Who can really say?
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Rowan
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2008, 09:47:42 AM »

State polls lag by a week or so. Lets wait a week to see where we are at then.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2008, 09:49:30 AM »

State polls lag by a week or so. Lets wait a week to see where we are at then.

Umm... this poll was conducted on Wednesday. Not last week. Not the week before.
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Iosif
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2008, 09:55:13 AM »

The cities unexpectedly carried the primary for Obama. With his GOTV set up I can see a similar outcome next month.

I'm going to be bold and say Obama's in a better position in MO than OH.
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Rowan
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2008, 10:13:24 AM »

State polls lag by a week or so. Lets wait a week to see where we are at then.

Umm... this poll was conducted on Wednesday. Not last week. Not the week before.

Exactly and Wednesday is when this race started to tighten. Wait until next week.
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emailking
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2008, 10:19:09 AM »

State polls lag by a week or so. Lets wait a week to see where we are at then.

Umm... this poll was conducted on Wednesday. Not last week. Not the week before.

Exactly and Wednesday is when this race started to tighten. Wait until next week.

You're not making any sense. Why would a state poll, taken on the same day as a national poll, be expected not to reflect that day's national poll but the national poll from one week ago?
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Rowan
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2008, 10:25:49 AM »

State polls lag by a week or so. Lets wait a week to see where we are at then.

Umm... this poll was conducted on Wednesday. Not last week. Not the week before.

Exactly and Wednesday is when this race started to tighten. Wait until next week.

You're not making any sense. Why would a state poll, taken on the same day as a national poll, be expected not to reflect that day's national poll but the national poll from one week ago?

Because it has been shown time and time again that the state polls do lag.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2008, 10:29:46 AM »

There will likely be a further MO poll released this coming Monday as part of the Fox News/Rasmussen 'Swing State' project

Dave
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emailking
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2008, 10:39:44 AM »

State polls lag by a week or so. Lets wait a week to see where we are at then.

Umm... this poll was conducted on Wednesday. Not last week. Not the week before.

Exactly and Wednesday is when this race started to tighten. Wait until next week.

You're not making any sense. Why would a state poll, taken on the same day as a national poll, be expected not to reflect that day's national poll but the national poll from one week ago?

Because it has been shown time and time again that the state polls do lag.

One explanation could be the bandwagon effect. There's no rational reason I can conceive why the state poll is somehow obsolete because the picture changes in the national poll. The "tightening" you are talking about has also been within the margin of error.
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2008, 12:36:52 PM »

6%?  Rly?
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Alcon
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2008, 12:42:22 PM »


With no disrespect to Sam, that just makes no sense whatsoever
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2008, 12:44:22 PM »


With no disrespect to Sam, that just makes no sense whatsoever

It would make sense, if there is a more of a lag in publishing state results, or they cover a longer window of time.
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Alcon
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2008, 12:46:27 PM »


With no disrespect to Sam, that just makes no sense whatsoever

It would make sense, if there is a more of a lag in publishing state results, or they cover a longer window of time.

Oh, definitely, but Rasmussen had this poll in the field Wednesday only.  I don't think that state polls lag behind national polls conducted at the same time.  That doesn't really make a lick of sense to me.
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Lunar
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2008, 12:47:08 PM »

It makes sense that it takes about a week for state polls to be showing the national trend uniformly, as there are far more and more frequent national polls than state-polls.  Individual state polls don't lag (logically) but if you were to try and weave an entire 50-state map solely off of state polls, your map would prob lag.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2008, 12:57:57 PM »


With no disrespect to Sam, that just makes no sense whatsoever

It would make sense, if there is a more of a lag in publishing state results, or they cover a longer window of time.

Oh, definitely, but Rasmussen had this poll in the field Wednesday only.  I don't think that state polls lag behind national polls conducted at the same time.  That doesn't really make a lick of sense to me.

It doesn't make sense to me either, I'm just pointing out that more often than not there seems to be some type of lag for some reason.
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Alcon
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2008, 12:59:19 PM »

It doesn't make sense to me either, I'm just pointing out that more often than not there seems to be some type of lag for some reason.

I know it feels that way, but I think it's a combination of the slight relative delay in state result releases, and all the stale polls on maps and stuff.  I don't think state polls conducted the same day as national ones are any more likely to show a lag.  It just wouldn't make any sense at all.
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