Politico: Networks preparing for short election night

[Reaganfan]

My guess:

9:00pm EDT


Obama: 78
McCain: 69

10:00pm EDT


McCain: 171
Obama: 113

In the end...


Obama: 273
McCain: 265

[Torie]

The above bottom line map makes sense, in a very tight election, ie all roads lead to Colorado. I don't think it will be that tight. Still it will be fun to watch critical state biases from the national margin in the polls, to see who has the advantage in the electoral college in a tight election.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a rather optimistic map for Obama right before 11pm eastern time. He has 271 EV to McCain's 163, and so has won before the Pacific states close.

Yeah, if there's any way for Obama to get to 270 before 11pm, that would be it, but that's an *awfully* big longshot.  Look at the 2004 election night timeline:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2004/pe2004elecnighttime.php

Of the states that were decided by 5% or less, Oregon was by far the fastest, being called just over an hour after polls closed.  The next fastest of the states that were within 5% was PA, and that was called nearly 3 hours after polls closed.  Many of the others took *much* longer than that.  So it's really a stretch to imagine CO *and* FL *and* OH *and* NC *and VA all being called for Obama before 11pm Eastern.

[Lunar]

299 EV's

[Lіef]

This is the best I could see the map for Obama at 11pm when the west coast states close:



So, in that case, Wolf Blitzer would project CA, WA, OR and HI for Obama, then project that Obama is elected the 44th President of the United States. So really, the only state that would still be voting is Alaska. I don't know how (if at all) that would affect the Senate and House race up there.

If Alaskan Obama voters fail to show up after the results of the elections are clear, it could ruin Begich.

On the other hand, if Alaskan McCain/Palin supporters fail to show up after the results of the election are clear, it could ruin Stevens. It's hard to predict who will and won't leave the line and go home in that scenario.

[NOVA Green]

My guess:

9:00pm EDT


Obama: 78
McCain: 69

10:00pm EDT


McCain: 171
Obama: 113

In the end...


Obama: 273
McCain: 265

Thanks for a scenario that leaves those of us on the West Coast excited and voting until the end!

This is of course assuming that the NOVA vote is not sufficient for Obama in VA, and that CO comes down to the wire as the OH of '04 or FL of 2000. Maybe if we are lucky it will come down to court rulings and we will get an extra month of election thrills while the merits of absentee ballots are debated!

[Reaganfan]

My guess:

9:00pm EDT


Obama: 78
McCain: 69

10:00pm EDT


McCain: 171
Obama: 113

In the end...


Obama: 273
McCain: 265

Thanks for a scenario that leaves those of us on the West Coast excited and voting until the end!

This is of course assuming that the NOVA vote is not sufficient for Obama in VA, and that CO comes down to the wire as the OH of '04 or FL of 2000. Maybe if we are lucky it will come down to court rulings and we will get an extra month of election thrills while the merits of absentee ballots are debated!

Nah...

Neither Obama or McCain would want to put our country through that again. McCain would concede ala Kerry '04 saying "Obama won...my friend, ect" and Obama would concede saying "Ya kno...John's a good guy" and start saving up for 2012.

[Lunar]

This is the best I could see the map for Obama at 11pm when the west coast states close:



So, in that case, Wolf Blitzer would project CA, WA, OR and HI for Obama, then project that Obama is elected the 44th President of the United States. So really, the only state that would still be voting is Alaska. I don't know how (if at all) that would affect the Senate and House race up there.

If Alaskan Obama voters fail to show up after the results of the elections are clear, it could ruin Begich.

On the other hand, if Alaskan McCain/Palin supporters fail to show up after the results of the election are clear, it could ruin Stevens. It's hard to predict who will and won't leave the line and go home in that scenario.

I'm not sure if this effect has ever been documented.  Logically, at most we're talking about 0.2-0.5% of voters in 3-EV Alaska who are trying to make the difference in the national election, stare at their TV, and then decided whether to vote or not.  I think Alaska is culturally used to not being the deciding factor in a presidential election. 

I suppose there's an outside chance that less than 1% of overall voters, who happen to be hardcore Palin supporters, will be depressed about her loss but not motivated enough to vote for  her, but that's a small minority.

The main claim with the state-declared thingamajig is Florida '00 where people were still voting and their state was called.  That claim is suspect, but at least it was intrastate.

[tokar]

You too can play this game of hourly calls.  Here is the run down of each hour (or half hour) and what states' polls are closing: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=ec

Yellow = too early to call / polls still open in parts of state
Green = too close to call
red...blue...you know the drill

By 6:00PM EST





By 7:00PM EST




By 7:30PM EST




By 8:00PM EST




By 8:30PM EST




By 9:00PM EST




By 10:00PM EST




11:00PM EST




12:00AM EST




1:00AM EST

[Fritz]

Why do you have the states of Maine and Nebraska called for a candidate by 9:00, but not any of their districts?  Seems to me that if a state can be called, at least one of its districts could be called.

[tokar]

Why do you have the states of Maine and Nebraska called for a candidate by 9:00, but not any of their districts?  Seems to me that if a state can be called, at least one of its districts could be called.

Well I figured the districts have a smaller sample size and are not called on exit polling.

I figure that exit polling usually covers the state as a whole, where as individual districts usually get no exit polling.

[Likely Voter]

snip

By 10:00PM EST



snip

excellent post and I agree with the final map (lowest confidence on MO and OH). However I think that by 10PM they will have called VA. It took them 1:45 to call it for Bush, but you say it will take them 5 hours....I think they can do it in less than 4. Of course it has the effect of making Obama president elect so maybe they will wait until 11, but if they are really calling them as they get them I think VA will be done before 10, or at the very least before 11.

[Wall St. Wiz]

I expect complete irresponsibility on the part of the media.  They are going to call as many states early for Obama as possible in order to discourage McCain voters from coming to the polls. 

Get ready for exit polls saying Obama is headed to a 40 state/450+EV win.

[tokar]

snip

By 10:00PM EST



snip

excellent post and I agree with the final map (lowest confidence on MO and OH). However I think that by 10PM they will have called VA. It took them 1:45 to call it for Bush, but you say it will take them 5 hours....I think they can do it in less than 4. Of course it has the effect of making Obama president elect so maybe they will wait until 11, but if they are really calling them as they get them I think VA will be done before 10, or at the very least before 11.

Well, when I was drawing it up, all I could think about was the 2006 senatorial race.  It took them literally forever to call Virginia because of all the absentee ballots which had to be counted.  Ditto for Missouri and Montana.

[tokar]

I expect complete irresponsibility on the part of the media.  They are going to call as many states early for Obama as possible in order to discourage McCain voters from coming to the polls. 

Get ready for exit polls saying Obama is headed to a 40 state/450+EV win.

Err...I don't agree.

The 2nd presidential debate is a good gauge for ratings for the upcoming election day...except instead of 70mil I expect 100mil.  Just looking at % of people watching the 2nd debate:

Network %total
ABC 18.8%
NBC 15.9%
CBS 15.9%
FNC 15.9%
CNN 15.3%
FOX 6.4%
MSNBC 6.3%

ABC is pretty much FoxNews Lite.  And I think FOX is a simulcast of FNC?
So that ads up to 41.1% people watching conservative programming.
MSNBC and NBC are liberal programming so thats 22.2%.
And centrist (CBS, CNN) adds up to 31.2%.

I think the other 6 or so % comes from people watching the likes of PBS or CSpan or whatever.  So I guess you can add that into centrist programming.

The majority of people will be watching programming that will definitely not try to detract from McCain voting (FNC/FOX/ABC).  And I dont think the centrist programming will try to dissuade people with false information - besides the fact that CNN is the slowest in calling states one way or the other (as shown time and time again during the primaries).
So that ads up to near 75% of programming that won't be in the tank for Obama.

So I don't think you have to worry.

[Lunar]

But all McCain voters watch MSNBC!

[DownWithTheLeft]

At midnight:

[Torie]

Long night in Washington State eh DWTL?    Ditto Oregon really. That One is now The One in both states really. It is a veritable love fest at this point. Both states will be called when the polls close.

[Torie]

But all McCain voters watch MSNBC!

Well assuming I am still a McCain voter, I watch MSNBC sometimes. I just love their antics! Keith baby is awesome.

[Ronnie]

But all McCain voters watch MSNBC!

Well assuming I am still a McCain voter, I watch MSNBC sometimes. I just love their antics! Keith baby is awesome.

That's it Torie, come back home to where you belong.

[GMantis]

I expect complete irresponsibility on the part of the media.  They are going to call as many states early for Obama as possible in order to discourage McCain voters from coming to the polls. 

Get ready for exit polls saying Obama is headed to a 40 state/450+EV win.

And why won't this make Obama voters also coming to the polls, in the belief the election is already decided?

[big bad fab]

Already, election night will be totally suspenseless, EXCEPT that the margin is uncertain: NC, FL, OH, IN, WV, MO, CO, NV, NE-2.

So, please, CNN (the only one I can watch in France, as MSNBC is in part replacer by CNBC Europe), give us an entire night.
I don't want to spend a sleepless night for nothing, not having all results in live with Wolf !

I'm a fan of RCP, of C-Span on Internet, of Dave Leip's atlas, of 538, of Politico, etc. but I don't want to sit in front of my PC all the night.....!!!