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Author Topic: Rasmussen State Poll (10/20): CO, FL, MO, NC, OH  (Read 2487 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: October 20, 2008, 04:58:11 pm »
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Colorado
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Florida
Obama 48%
McCain 49%

Missouri
Obama 49%
McCain 44%

North Carolina
Obama 51%
McCain 48%

Ohio
Obama 47%
McCain 49%
« Last Edit: October 20, 2008, 05:00:16 pm by Sam Spade »Logged
Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2008, 04:59:56 pm »
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Very good numbers for Sen. Obama. (Talking about NC)
« Last Edit: October 20, 2008, 05:02:00 pm by DukeFan22 »Logged
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2008, 05:00:07 pm »
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McCain has been doing a good job in Ohio throughout the year.  His campaign realized they needed it and held it well.  I'm impressed.

Now if they could just do that with those other important states..
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2008, 05:00:29 pm »
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Florida finally came up.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2008, 05:03:23 pm »
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McCain can have FL and OH, we will take NC, VA, CO and MO.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2008, 05:05:00 pm »
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Obama doing better in NC and MO than in FL feels wrong but whatever.

BRTD will be pleased at least.
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As expected the wop won.

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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2008, 05:08:05 pm »
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Interesting results. It's kind of awesome that Obama's extended the map to the degree that he can get above 270 without either Ohio or Florida.

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freedomburns
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2008, 05:13:27 pm »
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These numbers look good for Obama.  They can have Florida and Ohio.  We still win.
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2008, 05:13:47 pm »
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Interesting results. It's kind of awesome that Obama's extended the map to the degree that he can get above 270 without either Ohio or Florida.



Well above it.
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2008, 05:16:32 pm »
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I'm relieved about the FL and OH results.  NC is pissing me off, along with MO and CO.
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2008, 05:21:20 pm »
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McCain has been doing a good job in Ohio throughout the year.  His campaign realized they needed it and held it well.  I'm impressed.

Now if they could just do that with those other important states..

Steady. Its not 'held' yet. Just damn close


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10/19  49%  47%
10/14  49%  49%
10/12  47%  49% 
10/05  48%  47% 
09/28  48%  47%
 
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Boris
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2008, 06:40:40 pm »
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Interesting results. It's kind of awesome that Obama's extended the map to the degree that he can get above 270 without either Ohio or Florida.



Shatters conventional wisdom, doesn't it?
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2008, 07:12:14 pm »
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This sentiment is exactly why I doubt the results.  Polling =/= actual results.  Sometimes yes, sometimes no.  I think VA and NC polls have some "tingly change enthusiasm" which are skewing the numbers.  When it's booth time, I think the tradition kicks in a bit.

FWIW, VA demographic changes are legit, though.  Enough to tip to Obama is another question, one that will be answered in 2 weeks.
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2008, 07:24:53 pm »
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Missouri as pro-Obama as Colorado.  Not buying that.  I think NC is going to hold for McCain, I believe Kerry polled stronger there in 04 then the final result.  But I know it will be close.

If not for CO and VA I would be tempted to get my hopes up little for a McCain come from behind win.  But those two states seem like they are lost, and there is no where else where Mac can pick up votes. 

I'm thinking at this point roll the dice and dump everything you have into a big state like PA. Yeah I know I'll get ridiculed for saying that but there is no where else to turn.
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mokbu
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2008, 08:18:26 pm »
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Ras has always had McCain doing about 4-5 points above what other pollsters have in OHIO, making them an kind of an outlier.  Outliers can be good though.  Just goes down to do you trust two average polls or one good one?
« Last Edit: October 20, 2008, 10:50:48 pm by mokbubble »Logged
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2008, 08:46:13 pm »
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Ras has always had McCain doing about 4-5 points above what other pollsters have, making them an kind of an outlier.  Outliers can be good though.  Just goes down to do you trust two average polls or one good one?

4-5 is an exaggeration and Rasmussen is not an outlier 95% of the time.
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2008, 09:30:12 pm »
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Ras has always had McCain doing about 4-5 points above what other pollsters have, making them an kind of an outlier.  Outliers can be good though.  Just goes down to do you trust two average polls or one good one?

4-5 is an exaggeration and Rasmussen is not an outlier 95% of the time.

Correct. Rasmussen is reliable. Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Missouri will probably all head to McCain in the end.
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2008, 09:36:26 pm »
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It is undeniable that Rasmussen has a slight McCain lean.
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2008, 09:42:06 pm »
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I'm relieved about the FL and OH results.  NC is pissing me off, along with MO and CO.
Missouri as pro-Obama as Colorado.  Not buying that.  I think NC is going to hold for McCain, I believe Kerry polled stronger there in 04 then the final result.  But I know it will be close.

If not for CO and VA I would be tempted to get my hopes up little for a McCain come from behind win.  But those two states seem like they are lost, and there is no where else where Mac can pick up votes. 

I'm thinking at this point roll the dice and dump everything you have into a big state like PA. Yeah I know I'll get ridiculed for saying that but there is no where else to turn.

Don't forget that St. Louis and its suburbs have had positive Obama exposure for years as their media cover IL politics. I expect that St. Louis County will vote big for Obama. If I add some additional votes from up and down the Mississippi, Obama can win. His proximity to the major media center gets him a bit a bit of a "favorite son" bounce.

He doesn't benefit as much in IN, since the NW corner by Chicago already has a high Dem vote. The major media in IN does not cover IL the way that St. Louis does.
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Rowan
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2008, 09:54:57 pm »
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It is undeniable that Rasmussen has a slight McCain lean.

Or maybe its the other polls have a Dem bias.

But then again, hacks like you can't see things that way.
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2008, 10:29:26 pm »
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It is undeniable that Rasmussen has a slight McCain lean.

relative to other polls.  Who knows who has the correct model?  Rasmussen is historically solid, but they get some of their solidity from hard-weighting things more strictly than the other polls - at least that's my amateur understanding. 

This "could" be vastly underestimating the AA and Youth vote, at least that's what credible pollster Ann Selzer thinks.

But odds are that it's not, at least not as vastly as Selzer thinks...
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2008, 10:44:52 pm »
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Considering Obama had led FL by 7, pretty recently, I'm disappointed. OH, once again, going into the old "turkey's voting for Christmas mode"

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mokbu
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2008, 10:50:08 pm »
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Im sorry I messed up in my post.  I meant to say in OH  Ras is about 4 points above the averagein McCain's camp.  That was a typo.

 RCP has Obama up 2.9 or so when averaged out, Ras has McCain up 2.  That's about 4 points.  Remember earlier in the year when Ras had McCain up by 10? Im not knocking Ras at all, just saying that all year they have had OH about 4 more points or so in McCain's camp then the rest for this state.

Ras is one of the best pollsters out there so I wouldn't knock it.



« Last Edit: October 20, 2008, 10:51:43 pm by mokbubble »Logged
Kalimantan
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« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2008, 07:47:00 am »
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I'm thinking at this point roll the dice and dump everything you have into a big state like PA. Yeah I know I'll get ridiculed for saying that but there is no where else to turn.

I think you'll find that he is already doing that. Kerry states + IA + NM + CO + VA - PA = McCain win. Unlikely though
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2008, 10:14:54 am »
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It is undeniable that Rasmussen has a slight McCain lean.

relative to other polls.  Who knows who has the correct model?  Rasmussen is historically solid, but they get some of their solidity from hard-weighting things more strictly than the other polls - at least that's my amateur understanding. 

This "could" be vastly underestimating the AA and Youth vote, at least that's what credible pollster Ann Selzer thinks.

But odds are that it's not, at least not as vastly as Selzer thinks...

My understanding is that the hard-weighting clamps down on some of the "enthusiasm" numbers; that would intuitively seem to favor "stable" Republican votes in this election.

So I think it's fair to say Rasmussen usually has a slight R lean in many of its polls.  The question is whether that "lean" is accurate or not.  We'll find out in two weeks.
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