Rasmussen State Poll (10/20): CO, FL, MO, NC, OH

[Lunar]

McCain has been doing a good job in Ohio throughout the year.  His campaign realized they needed it and held it well.  I'm impressed.

Now if they could just do that with those other important states..

[Lunar]

Ras has always had McCain doing about 4-5 points above what other pollsters have, making them an kind of an outlier.  Outliers can be good though.  Just goes down to do you trust two average polls or one good one?

4-5 is an exaggeration and Rasmussen is not an outlier 95% of the time.

[Lunar]

It is undeniable that Rasmussen has a slight McCain lean.

relative to other polls.  Who knows who has the correct model?  Rasmussen is historically solid, but they get some of their solidity from hard-weighting things more strictly than the other polls - at least that's my amateur understanding. 

This "could" be vastly underestimating the AA and Youth vote, at least that's what credible pollster Ann Selzer thinks.

But odds are that it's not, at least not as vastly as Selzer thinks...