Rasmussen State Poll (10/20): CO, FL, MO, NC, OH

[TheGlobalizer]

This sentiment is exactly why I doubt the results.  Polling =/= actual results.  Sometimes yes, sometimes no.  I think VA and NC polls have some "tingly change enthusiasm" which are skewing the numbers.  When it's booth time, I think the tradition kicks in a bit.

FWIW, VA demographic changes are legit, though.  Enough to tip to Obama is another question, one that will be answered in 2 weeks.

[TheGlobalizer]

It is undeniable that Rasmussen has a slight McCain lean.

relative to other polls.  Who knows who has the correct model?  Rasmussen is historically solid, but they get some of their solidity from hard-weighting things more strictly than the other polls - at least that's my amateur understanding. 

This "could" be vastly underestimating the AA and Youth vote, at least that's what credible pollster Ann Selzer thinks.

But odds are that it's not, at least not as vastly as Selzer thinks...

My understanding is that the hard-weighting clamps down on some of the "enthusiasm" numbers; that would intuitively seem to favor "stable" Republican votes in this election.

So I think it's fair to say Rasmussen usually has a slight R lean in many of its polls.  The question is whether that "lean" is accurate or not.  We'll find out in two weeks.