The Only Ten States McCain/Palin Must Focus On The Next Two Weeks

[Politico]

Personally, I think this race is going to turn into a blowout with Obama winning 30 to 45 states when it is all said and done. However, there is always the chance of this sucker really tightening up. Even if that happens, I do not see Obama losing any of the states that Gore carried in 2000, including Pennsylvania. As a result, I think it is quite clear that McCain/Palin ought to divert all resources to these ten states:

Obama 260
McCain 158
Tossup 120

Let's face it: It's over if any of those blue states above become competitive, which they may or may not be at this time or in one and a half week's time. But, for the sake of argument, let's say those 158 EVs are locked up for McCain and Obama has his 260 EVs locked up. Out of the remaining 120 EVs, McCain can only afford to give up 8 of them. In other words, he can only afford to lose one of the following tossup states: Nevada, West Virginia or New Hampshire. Two of those three states must be won along with the remaining seven states.

It's a tall order, but I think at this point these are the BIG TEN, so to speak, that McCain/Palin need to focus on and hope all else falls perfectly for them...

[daboese]

Looks pretty defensive to me.
I would not move out of PA, and not put any further resources into WV, MO or IN.
If they loose any of those three states, it's over anyway.
So it's an eight-state strategy (possibly seven, if you take out NC as well).

[Politico]

Looks pretty defensive to me.
I would not move out of PA, and not put any further resources into WV, MO or IN.
If they loose any of those three states, it's over anyway.

Just like Gore was forced to drop his bid for OH two weeks before the election in 2000 and shift those resources into PA and FL, I think it's time for McCain to drop his bid for PA and move those resources into OH and FL. It's too late to catch up in PA, but he can still win without PA like Bush did in 2004/2000. It's really over if he loses OH or FL.

[daboese]

If Gore would have won FL, he would have won the election- so he moved out of OH.

If McCain on the other hand moves out of PA, he misses one third of the chance he has to win the EV.
OH and FL are must-wins for him anyway, if he looses one of those- as you said- he is finished.
If he wins PA, on the other hand, he could even loose both VA and CO.

[Politico]

If Gore would have won FL, he would have won the election- so he moved out of OH.

If McCain on the other hand moves out of PA, he misses one third of the chance he has to win the EV.
OH and FL are must-wins for him anyway, if he looses one of those- as you said- he is finished.
If he wins PA, on the other hand, he could even loose both VA and CO.

Yeah, but at this point can we really see him winning PA but losing VA and CO? I think he's far more likely to win VA and CO than win PA. And let's not forget that even John Kerry carried PA.

It's late in the game, so I think you gotta focus on the best bet to get you to 270. He still has a little room for error by being able to lose NV or NH...

[daboese]

As I said in the other thread, he has (according to 538) a 2.5%-chance to win PA, and an about 4%-chance to win VA and CO without PA (this is just an educated guess, though).
Thus, these two numbers are comparable (though both quite small) at this point in time and if he gives up PA, his chances will go down by quite a bit.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Basically this shows just how hard a spot McCain/Palin is in right now.

They aren't leading in ANY Gore/Kerry states - they arent even tied.

Plus Obama is leading in 6 states that Bush won both times, including some that didn't vote for Clinton once.

The entire campaign is being played out in McCain's territory - the states that will decide this election are OH, FL, VA, MO, NV, NC and CO... all Bush states.

I'd be s**tting myself if I were in McCain's shoes right now. It'd take a herculean effort to even get back on level pegging. Let alone threaten Obama .... anywhere.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

He's campaigning in Pittsburgh today.........so maybe 11 states?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He's campaigning in Pittsburgh today.........so maybe 11 states?

I think there's some morale issue - he simply cannot be seen to be giving up on PA.

[Politico]

Somebody needs to pull McCain aside and tell him that it's OVER if he does not carry OH and FL. He needs to stop spending time and money on PA if he wants to win. PA is a lost cause at this point.

[Brittain33]

Somebody needs to pull McCain aside and tell him that it's OVER if he does not carry OH and FL. He needs to stop spending time and money on PA if he wants to win. PA is a lost cause at this point.

I understand his wanting to stay on offense somewhere. It may be crazy, but he's a gambler, and there are stupider strategies out there. If McCain focuses his time on Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Indiana, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, well, that's something. I can't agree with it but all I see are different ways for him to lose so it doesn't matter.

[Politico]

Somebody needs to pull McCain aside and tell him that it's OVER if he does not carry OH and FL. He needs to stop spending time and money on PA if he wants to win. PA is a lost cause at this point.

I understand his wanting to stay on offense somewhere. It may be crazy, but he's a gambler, and there are stupider strategies out there. If McCain focuses his time on Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Indiana, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, well, that's something. I can't agree with it but all I see are different ways for him to lose so it doesn't matter.

He can stay on offense in New Hampshire, the state that saved his candidacy during the primaries and the only Bush 2000 state that went to Kerry. NH's 4 EVs made the difference in 2000 and could make the difference once again.

Stop wasting time on Pennsylvania, where you trail by 10+ points, and focus on Ohio and Florida, big states where you are trailing by less than 10 points. And spend more time on VA and NC, southern states that ought to be solidly in your column but are not. Don't forget about MO and IN, where Obama is creeping up on him. And don't forget about CO and NV, which could make or break you but are within striking distance.

[TheGlobalizer]

My ten, in order:

VA
PA
OH
FL
MO
NV
CO
NM
NC
NH

[elcorazon]

Here are my 10:

ohio
florida
nevada
virginia
colorado
missouri
indiana
n carolina
n hampshire
n mexico

no need to worry about w virginia - if it falls, there will be others to put obama over the top.  nm and nh are semi-offensive and even if they are longshots, they are small and polling is erratic.  mccain might surprise us all there.

[Bacon King]

If I were in McCain's shoes I'd bank everything in Pennsylvania. Literally spend about half the time left there. Without this state his options to get up to 270 are spread way too thin to really be possible.

[elcorazon]

If I were in McCain's shoes I'd bank everything in Pennsylvania. Literally spend about half the time left there. Without this state his options to get up to 270 are spread way too thin to really be possible.

I think mccain has a better shot in Wisconsin than PA.

[kevinatcausa]

For comparison, 538's "Tipping point" (most likely to decide the election) states are

Virginia
Colorado
Florida
New Mexico
Ohio
Nevada
Minnesota
Missouri
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

While its "return on investment" (normalizing based on the cost of competing there) states are

New Mexico
New Hampshire
Colorado
Nevada
Virginia
Minnesota
Missouri
Ohio
Florida
North Carolina

[TheGlobalizer]

If I were in McCain's shoes I'd bank everything in Pennsylvania. Literally spend about half the time left there. Without this state his options to get up to 270 are spread way too thin to really be possible.

If his internal polling has PA in play, I agree.

Otherwise, it appears to be a bit of a longshot.  Holding VA should be the #1 priority.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If McCain puts that much attention on PA - ok. Let's play the "what if" game.

Obama somehow loses PA - there are still conceiveable ways to win - some that dont involve NV, OH or VA or NC only FL, NM and CO

McCain is increasingly without reasonable options to bring this about.

To play aggresively in PA is like charging headfirst into your opponent's front-line without protecting your flank or your rear.

If I were McCain/Palin I'd focus entirely on
- OH, FL (one of these fall it's over)
- VA, CO, MO, NC (valuable EV's 9-15) (worth noting these 4 are worth as many EV as OH+FL)
- Not sure about NV.