Prediction: Mark Warner will never be president

[pragmatic liberal]

Since we're all in the business of silly predictions on this board, why don't I throw this one out there:

Mark Warner, the former Virginia governor and soon-to-be-Senator, will never be President of the United States.

Not that he isn't a theoretically viable candidate. He may very well run at some point.

***

By 2016, Mark Warner will likely be a sitting senator in his second term and a popular former governor. He'll also, however, by 62 years old (older than the average contender) and will not be a new or exciting face. He is not a terribly charismatic guy and he doesn't really excite any major ideological faction of the party.

There are plenty of people like Warner who have often been touted as potential presidents: Bob Graham. Reubin Askew. Dale Bumpers. David Pryor. Chuck Robb.

None of these people became president (though Robb, of course, was done in by personal scandals). Yet all fit the profile of popular centrist Southern Dem governor (who isn't very exciting or charismatic), many of whom get elected to the Senate and then never go farther. Sam Nunn, who was always a senator, fits the same profile.

Mark Warner COULD be a presidential nominee in some years. He COULD very well become president. But the odds are he won't and that if and when he does run, he'll be eclipsed by some newer, more exciting person (someone who may not even be a senator or governor yet).

[Sam Spade]

Of course he'll never be President.  That was obvious when I first saw him on tv.

[Iosif]

He's so incredibly dull, and that only works for Republicans.

[pragmatic liberal]

Of course he'll never be President.  That was obvious when I first saw him on tv.

I thought to post this because in other predictions threads in this forum, it seems like everyone is convinced that Mark Warner is going to be president some day and that he'll be one of the greatest U.S. presidents of all time.

Maybe. But I wouldn't bet on it.

(Even more ridiculous, IMO, is the very popular idea on this forum that Gov. Brad Henry of Oklahoma is going to be president. Again, I'm not so crazy to think it couldn't happen. I just wouldn't bet on it.)

Warner is popular with pundits because he fits a profile that looks great on paper and he fits the media stereotype of what an ideal Democratic nominee would look like. But just because someone is a popular, centrist Southerner does not make them likely presidents. Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter had very distinct advantages among them charisma, some kind of ideological vision, and both captured the zeitgeist. The fact that they were centrist Southerners was not the primary reason they were successful.

[Bacon King]

The guy lacks the "it" factor to really be a powerful candidate. Also, I don't remember if it was Warner or Bayh, but for one of them anyway, I've read he decided not to run in 2008 after being horribly overshadowed by Obama at one of their own events in New Hampshire.

[pragmatic liberal]

The guy lacks the "it" factor to really be a powerful candidate. Also, I don't remember if it was Warner or Bayh, but for one of them anyway, I've read he decided not to run in 2008 after being horribly overshadowed by Obama at one of their own events in New Hampshire.

That was Bayh. He formed an exploratory committee then had an event in NH the same day in Dec. '06 that Obama held an event. Obama's event got several thousand people. Bayh got something like 20.

Both Bayh and Warner strike me as having missed their moment. For candidates like them, timing is especially critical, because they lack the it factor they need to keep themselves relevant long-term.

If Bayh really wants to be president, he's made several key mistakes, IMO: (1) voting for the Bush tax cuts. Yes, he's from Indiana, but he swung a little too much to the right than he should have in Bush's first term and a lot of Dems will hold it against him -- that's why there was a near-outcry when he made Obama's VP shortlist. (2) Not running in '04 -- he probably wouldn't have won, but he might have made Kerry's VP and at least the exposure could have put him in a better position to run this year.

Warner decided last-minute not to run this year, and I think he probably lost his chance. I also think his decision to run for the Senate may keep him from the top. Had he not run for the Senate, he could have sat on the sidelines and he'd have been a top contender for VP. If, at that point, he wasn't picked or the Dem ticket lost, he could still run for Virginia governor in 2009, which could have set him up for a presidential bid in 2012.

That being said, had Warner run this year, I doubt he'd have gotten the nod. In 2006, it looked like the '08 Dem field would basically boil down to Hillary vs. Warner vs. Edwards. In that scenario, I imagine all three tightly contesting Iowa, Hillary and Warner strongly contesting New Hampshire, Hillary and Edwards strongly contesting Nevada, and all three contesting South Carolina.

I imagine it would have gone something like this: (1) Edwards wins Iowa, Hillary second, Warner third; (2) Hillary wins Iowa, Warner in second, Edwards in third; (3) Hillary and Edwards battle for Nevada but Hillary wins; (4) Warner doesn't contest Nevada and stakes his claim to SC, but comes in third behind Edwards (first) and Hillary (second). He drops out, and on Super Tuesday, Hillary wins all the big states and takes a big delegate lead, Edwards just wins some Southern states and some caucuses in the West, but stays in the race for another month, winning Louisiana, maybe one or two other caucuses, and making a play for Ohio and Texas but losing both by 10-20 points to Hillary. Hillary wins the nomination and maybe she picks Warner for VP.

[ShadowRocket]

To be fair, though, I think Warner would probably excite more moderate Democrats.

That said, I think its too early to determine whether or not Mark Warner will ever be elected President. One point  I think worth making is that he fits the post-partisan role that Obama is fulfilling right now, and if Obama serves two terms as President and remains popular, I could see him benefiting from that similar mantra. Though I think the same could also be said of Evan Bayh or Brian Schweitzer. Or some Governor or Senator who hasn't been elected yet.

[memphis]

Pretty safe bet, given that the overwhelming majority of people, even of those on the national political scene, don't ever become president.

[BM]

To be fair, though, I think Warner would probably excite more moderate Democrats.

He'd be the first candidate I'd be eager to vote for since turning 18.

[paul718]

Agreed.  The nomination was there for him if he wanted it.  And his explicitly stating he was not interested in being Obama's runningmate tells me that he has no desire to run for national office.  I think if a Democrat Governor of VA runs for President it will be Kaine. 

Bayh will run eventually.  I think he only reason he cancelled his bid was to make way for Hillary, who he's very close with.  Had Hillary won the nomination, I think she would've picked him   

[Хahar 🤔]

More likely than not to be true.

[MR maverick]

Just think McCain would have got creamed by anyone of the other democrats in the field ( Edwards barring the affair thing coming out).

Warners speech at the convention was a little flat.

You have to figure that if Obama wins in 2012 Biden will step down and Kaine will step in, thus 2016 Tim Kaine would lead the way.  So Yea barring a Obama loss Warner might not never be president.

[paul718]

Just think McCain would have got creamed by anyone of the other democrats in the field ( Edwards barring the affair thing coming out).

Warners speech at the convention was a little flat.

You have to figure that if Obama wins in 2012 Biden will step down and Kaine will step in, thus 2016 Tim Kaine would lead the way.  So Yea barring a Obama loss Warner might not never be president.

Why would Biden step down?

[MR maverick]

Just think McCain would have got creamed by anyone of the other democrats in the field ( Edwards barring the affair thing coming out).

Warners speech at the convention was a little flat.

You have to figure that if Obama wins in 2012 Biden will step down and Kaine will step in, thus 2016 Tim Kaine would lead the way.  So Yea barring a Obama loss Warner might not never be president.

Why would Biden step down?

If things are going good with Obama the dems might see a win for 2016 and they would want the younger candidate.

Lets be honest, had the Georgia thing not took place Kaine would have been VP anyway.

[Workers' Friend]

Just think McCain would have got creamed by anyone of the other democrats in the field ( Edwards barring the affair thing coming out).

Warners speech at the convention was a little flat.

You have to figure that if Obama wins in 2012 Biden will step down and Kaine will step in, thus 2016 Tim Kaine would lead the way.  So Yea barring a Obama loss Warner might not never be president.

Why would Biden step down?

If things are going good with Obama the dems might see a win for 2016 and they would want the younger candidate.

Lets be honest, had the Georgia thing not took place Kaine would have been VP anyway.

Wait, what Georgia thing? Do you mean the Curious George Shirt incident?

[MR maverick]

Just think McCain would have got creamed by anyone of the other democrats in the field ( Edwards barring the affair thing coming out).

Warners speech at the convention was a little flat.

You have to figure that if Obama wins in 2012 Biden will step down and Kaine will step in, thus 2016 Tim Kaine would lead the way.  So Yea barring a Obama loss Warner might not never be president.

Why would Biden step down?

If things are going good with Obama the dems might see a win for 2016 and they would want the younger candidate.

Lets be honest, had the Georgia thing not took place Kaine would have been VP anyway.

Wait, what Georgia thing? Do you mean the Curious George Shirt incident?

Ha.. ha funny.

The Russia/ Georgia event this past summer.

[paul718]

You have to figure that if Obama wins in 2012 Biden will step down and Kaine will step in, thus 2016 Tim Kaine would lead the way.  So Yea barring a Obama loss Warner might not never be president.

Why would Biden step down?

If things are going good with Obama the dems might see a win for 2016 and they would want the younger candidate.

Lets be honest, had the Georgia thing not took place Kaine would have been VP anyway.

A sitting VP has been elected President only two times in the country's history.  While I might agree with you that it would make the most sense for the VP to be next line, the past has shown otherwise.  

Besides, Democrats tend to buck the idea that a person is "next in line", and instead nominate someone unexpected.

[MR maverick]

Most recent was with Gore in 2000.

[paul718]

Most recent was with Gore in 2000.

ok

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I still think Warner has an excellent shot to win the nomination in 2016.  Biden will probably be too old to run, and Warner, after 4 years as an incredibly successful Governor, and 8 years as a Senator, will have the credentials to win.  He also has the incredible wealth that could finance a strong primary campaign, and win over independents in Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Ronnie]

I still think Warner has an excellent shot to win the nomination in 2016.  Biden will probably be too old to run, and Warner, after 4 years as an incredibly successful Governor, and 8 years as a Senator, will have the credentials to win.  He also has the incredible wealth that could finance a strong primary campaign, and win over independents in Iowa and New Hampshire.

I think you must be the only person in the country who thinks Warner is the messiah.  A pseudo-centrist Democrat, who is about as charismatic as a tree stump, won't go very far in my opinion.   

[Lief 🗽]

He's a little less boring and a little less of a conservative hack than Evan Bayh is. That doesn't win you a Democratic primary, unless you're only running against Evan Bayh.

[Meeker]

You could say this about anyone and have a very reasonable chance of getting it correct.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I still think Warner has an excellent shot to win the nomination in 2016.  Biden will probably be too old to run, and Warner, after 4 years as an incredibly successful Governor, and 8 years as a Senator, will have the credentials to win.  He also has the incredible wealth that could finance a strong primary campaign, and win over independents in Iowa and New Hampshire.

I think you must be the only person in the country who thinks Warner is the messiah.  A pseudo-centrist Democrat, who is about as charismatic as a tree stump, won't go very far in my opinion.   

I don't think he's the Messiah; I think he's an incredibly talented politician and administrator who would make a great President.

[The Populist]

I think Warner would be a good President, but he wouldn't excite the base enough to win.  That's the problem with a lot of good, moderate Governors - the wow factor isn't there.