KY: Rasmussen: Mitch McConnell won't go down so easily

[Aizen]

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Rasmussen on 2008-10-21

Summary: D: 43%, R: 50%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MarkWarner08]

Which poll was the outlier? I'm thinking the SUSA one was further off.

[Sam Spade]

Which poll was the outlier? I'm thinking the SUSA one was further off.

Ensign had a conference call today where he said the NRSC was comfortable with its position in the race and not spending any money in KY.  Of course, McConnell has plenty of money to burn, so I don't know whether that comment means much.  My issue is that McConnell is always stronger than he looks.

Is the NRSC spending any money in GA?

[MarkWarner08]

Which poll was the outlier? I'm thinking the SUSA one was further off.

Ensign had a conference call today where he said the NRSC was comfortable with its position in the race and not spending any money in KY.  Of course, McConnell has plenty of money to burn, so I don't know whether that comment means much.  My issue is that McConnell is always stronger than he looks.

Is the NRSC spending any money in GA?

Yes. They're running two ads there.  Interestingly, the Libertarian candidate may hold Chambliss under 50%. Thanks to the GOP-controlled legislature, the runoff law is back. Democrats could end election night with 59 seats -  a GA runoff could  then be the key to their dreams of a filibuster-proof Senate.

[Sam Spade]

Which poll was the outlier? I'm thinking the SUSA one was further off.

Ensign had a conference call today where he said the NRSC was comfortable with its position in the race and not spending any money in KY.  Of course, McConnell has plenty of money to burn, so I don't know whether that comment means much.  My issue is that McConnell is always stronger than he looks.

Is the NRSC spending any money in GA?

Yes. They're running two ads there.  Interestingly, the Libertarian candidate may hold Chambliss under 50%. Thanks to the GOP-controlled legislature, the runoff law is back. Democrats could end election night with 59 seats -  a GA runoff could  then be the key to their dreams of a filibuster-proof Senate.

That would be kind of amusing.  Shades of LA 2002.

So, in other words, what you're saying (most likely) is that either Chambliss gets 50% or we go to a runoff because I don't see Martin reaching 50% as likely.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, Chambliss is going to win any run-off that takes place. No way Georgia elects the Democrats a filibuster-proof majority.

[MarkWarner08]

Which poll was the outlier? I'm thinking the SUSA one was further off.

Ensign had a conference call today where he said the NRSC was comfortable with its position in the race and not spending any money in KY.  Of course, McConnell has plenty of money to burn, so I don't know whether that comment means much.  My issue is that McConnell is always stronger than he looks.

Is the NRSC spending any money in GA?

Yes. They're running two ads there.  Interestingly, the Libertarian candidate may hold Chambliss under 50%. Thanks to the GOP-controlled legislature, the runoff law is back. Democrats could end election night with 59 seats -  a GA runoff could  then be the key to their dreams of a filibuster-proof Senate.

That would be kind of amusing.  Shades of LA 2002.

So, in other words, what you're saying (most likely) is that either Chambliss gets 50% or we go to a runoff because I don't see Martin reaching 50% as likely.

That would be a correct inference. I doubt Martin will come out ahead on November 4th. I currently predict something along the lines of this:

Chambliss: 49.5%
Martin: 47.5%
Buckley: 3%