template 2012 electoral map with new electoral vote totals?

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone want to try to predict the post-2010 census electoral vote totals for each state, and then compile that into a template map that can be used for all of our 2012 predictions?

[Josh/Devilman88]

[Workers' Friend]

I hope Leip sees this, so he can use it for the 2012 Electoral Calculator sometime soon.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Josh, what are you basing that on?  I was sure LA would lose at least 1 EV.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Josh, what are you basing that on?  I was sure LA would lose at least 1 EV.

I got this from muon2 a while back, but I made one change. I added 1EV to NC to make the total EV 540. I don't like odd numbers.

[Mr. Morden]

I got this from muon2 a while back, but I made one change. I added 1EV to NC to make the total EV 540. I don't like odd numbers.

Isn't the number of electoral votes fixed at 538?

That is, isn't the House of Reps now fixed at 435 members, then add in 100 senators and 3 EV for DC and you get 538, no?

[Josh/Devilman88]

I got this from muon2 a while back, but I made one change. I added 1EV to NC to make the total EV 540. I don't like odd numbers.

Isn't the number of electoral votes fixed at 538?

That is, isn't the House of Reps now fixed at 435 members, then add in 100 senators and 3 EV for DC and you get 538, no?

I have no clue, if so, take one away from NC and another state that you wish.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I got this from muon2 a while back, but I made one change. I added 1EV to NC to make the total EV 540. I don't like odd numbers.

Isn't the number of electoral votes fixed at 538?

That is, isn't the House of Reps now fixed at 435 members, then add in 100 senators and 3 EV for DC and you get 538, no?

Yeah, it has to stay fixed at 538.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Use this one then.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Using 538.com, here's my template:

[Lunar]

Why would CA gain an electoral vote?  I thought we were on our way to losing one...

[The Ex-Factor]

Larry Sabato's 2010 census projections actually show us gaining one too:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=DNW2007031501

[Josh/Devilman88]

Larry Sabato's 2010 census projections actually show us gaining one too:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=DNW2007031501

Based on this:

Election 2012/2016/2020:

Election 2024/2028:

Election 2032/2036/2040:

[Workers' Friend]

I like how The South is gaining more EVs, while bigger Northern and Western states lose theirs. Why is that?

[Workers' Friend]

I like how The South is gaining more EVs, while bigger Northern and Western states lose theirs. Why is that?

The completely random distribution of electoral votes tend to favor the South at the expense of other regions for some reason.

Probably by 3000, if this keeps on, The South will have most of The Electorates. XD

[The Ex-Factor]

It's kind of depressing to see West Virginia's electoral votes shrink over the years. The state had less people in 2000 than it did in 1940 As late as the 1960's they had 8 EV's, now they're close to falling down to 4.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

According to Wikipedia, we'll have this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_apportionment

Latest estimates have LA losing a seat due to the departure from Katrina.  I think SC picks up the final seat.  I haven't seen the latest census estimates and run the algorithm myself, though.  When I get a chance I'll do that.

[Josh/Devilman88]

According to Wikipedia, we'll have this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_apportionment

Latest estimates have LA losing a seat due to the departure from Katrina.  I think SC picks up the final seat.  I haven't seen the latest census estimates and run the algorithm myself, though.  When I get a chance I'll do that.

I like this one better

[Workers' Friend]

I agree, it seems the most plausible.

Funny thing, FL will have as much as NY does in 2012/2016.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

By region, the Sunbelt gains a whopping 11 EVs:
TX+4, AZ+2, FL+2, GA+1, NV+1, NC+1, SC+1, UT+1, LA-1, CA-1

That's like a whole extra state.  The only state outside of the Sunbelt to gain a seat is Oregon.

Northeast loses 5 EVs:
MA-1, NJ-1, PA-1, NY-2

Midwest loses 6 EVs:
IL-1, IA-1, MI-1, MN-1, OH-2

Fringe South loses 1 EV (Missouri).

Ignoring an Obama Landslide and going by past voting patterns:
Reliably Republican states net gain 7 EVs.
Reliably Democratic states net lose 7 EVs.
Swing states stay the same.

Some of the gainers, however (FL, AZ, GA, NV, NC) are swing or Republican states that are trending Democrat.   As the Sunbelt gains EVs, they also are changing in voter preference.

[Хahar 🤔]

Utah? Sunbelt?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Utah? Sunbelt?

It's a state with a desert town large enough to support a professional sports franchise, that has exploded in population in recent decades due to transplants moving into a new suburban ring.  That to me is Sunbelt.

My Sunbelt has the following states:

CA, NV, UT, AZ, CO, NM, TX, LA, MS, AL, GA, FL, GA, SC, NC

Though UT, CO, NC, and NoCal are "Fringe Sunbelt."

[ottermax]

Utah? Sunbelt?

It's a state with a desert town large enough to support a professional sports franchise, that has exploded in population in recent decades due to transplants moving into a new suburban ring.  That to me is Sunbelt.

My Sunbelt has the following states:

CA, NV, UT, AZ, CO, NM, TX, LA, MS, AL, GA, FL, GA, SC, NC

Though UT, CO, NC, and NoCal are "Fringe Sunbelt."

The main reason UT shouldn't be considered a sunbelt state is because its growth is based off of a high birth rate, rather than migration.

I find it shocking that Arizona will have more votes than Washington... that's just sad.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Utah? Sunbelt?

It's a state with a desert town large enough to support a professional sports franchise, that has exploded in population in recent decades due to transplants moving into a new suburban ring.  That to me is Sunbelt.

My Sunbelt has the following states:

CA, NV, UT, AZ, CO, NM, TX, LA, MS, AL, GA, FL, GA, SC, NC

Though UT, CO, NC, and NoCal are "Fringe Sunbelt."

     San Francisco would be better suited for the Arctic Circle than the Sunbelt.

[BM]

That new map is interesting.  If the projections are true...

States projected to gain seats:

TX +4
AZ +2
FL +2
GA +1
NV +1
NC +1
OR +1
SC +1
UT +1


States projected to lose seats:

NY -2
OH -2
CA -1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
MA -1
MI -1
MN -1
MO -1
NJ -1
PA -1



When you organize them according to how they usually vote in presidential elections, you get net gains/losses of:

Republican: +9
Democrat: -8
Tossup: +1

Definitely helps the Republicans more, unless the increasing populations in the southern and western states changes their political dynamics as well.