PA-12 - Susquehanna - Murtha (D) 46%, Russell (R) 41%

[Lunar]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/murtha-in-trouble-after-calling-constituents-racist-2008-10-23.html

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/murtha-in-trouble-after-calling-constituents-racist-2008-10-23.html

Most surprising to me is the fact that this Russell guy has actually raised $2,200,000.

[J. J.]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/murtha-in-trouble-after-calling-constituents-racist-2008-10-23.html

Most surprising to me is the fact that this Russell guy has actually raised $2,200,000.

I just got a fund raising letter from him yesterday.

[Brittain33]

That is fascinating. We'll have to watch this district on election day for a surprise... I don't think this makes a lot of sense, because supposedly he's super-popular there for bringing money back, and it is a Democratic year. He doesn't epitomize the highest level of ethics. I hope someone else polls here or reports on what's going on, if anything.

[Sam Spade]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/murtha-in-trouble-after-calling-constituents-racist-2008-10-23.html

Most surprising to me is the fact that this Russell guy has actually raised $2,200,000.

Right-wing loonies really hate Murtha.  Think of it as Bachmann in reverse.

Anyway, Murtha's stupid comments have probably forfeited him about 10-12 points of the margin he had against Irey in 2006, but really, it would take a couple of more real stupid comments for me to consider him in real, real danger.

[Alcon]

Susquehanna (R)

[Brittain33]

Susquehanna (R)

For the record, this is the lede on the article:

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So I suppose it's like PPP?

[Keystone Phil]

LOL

Yeah, this isn't happening, folks. Move on. It would be hilarious though considering beating Murtha would be amazing especially if we beat him with a guy who had to run as a write in for the nomination in the primary!

[Alcon]

I guess.  I could have sworn that, in a previous cycle, they self-identified as Republican.  I guess they're in PPP range -- I'm not yet ready to elevate them to Strategic Vision

[Sam Spade]

I guess.  I could have sworn that, in a previous cycle, they self-identified as Republican.  I guess they're in PPP range -- I'm not yet ready to elevate them to Strategic Vision

Already took that into account with my comment... 

[J. J.]

I guess.  I could have sworn that, in a previous cycle, they self-identified as Republican.  I guess they're in PPP range -- I'm not yet ready to elevate them to Strategic Vision

Generally very conservative Democrats with a lot of veterans.  If Murtha hadn't been there forever, it would be GOP leaning district.

[minionofmidas]

Generally very conservative Democrats with a lot of veterans.  If Murtha hadn't been there forever, it would be GOP leaning district.

Right. When pigs fly.
This district was purpose-drawn to create the Republican seats around it (one of which flipped in 2006).

[Alcon]

I guess.  I could have sworn that, in a previous cycle, they self-identified as Republican.  I guess they're in PPP range -- I'm not yet ready to elevate them to Strategic Vision

Generally very conservative Democrats with a lot of veterans.  If Murtha hadn't been there forever, it would be GOP leaning district.

I was talking about Susquehanna Research, not PA-12.  And PA-12 wouldn't be GOP-leaning if not for Murtha, as Lewis pointed out, look how they gerrymandered it.  Indiana?  Johnstown?  Washington without the area to the west?  C'mon now.

[Keystone Phil]

Generally very conservative Democrats with a lot of veterans.  If Murtha hadn't been there forever, it would be GOP leaning district.

Right. When pigs fly.
This district was purpose-drawn to create the Republican seats around it (one of which flipped in 2006).

Uh...the idea that this seat is at least a tossup when Murtha leaves is well respected by both sides.

[Brittain33]

Generally very conservative Democrats with a lot of veterans.  If Murtha hadn't been there forever, it would be GOP leaning district.

Right. When pigs fly.
This district was purpose-drawn to create the Republican seats around it (one of which flipped in 2006).

Uh...the idea that this seat is at least a tossup when Murtha leaves is well respected by both sides.

I think that according to the voting habits of the mid-1990s through 2006, when social issues battled labor issues to a standstill, this district would have been a marginal. When the dust settles after this election, we'll have to see where the cross currents cut across this district's voters and how people are voting. If social issues continue to be salient and, at times, determinative, that will push one way. If not? We may see a sustained swing back to the Democrats. Or Obama implodes and takes his party with them. Whichever. I suspect we'll see an affinity for majority power regardless.

[Mr.Phips]

This is a partisan Republican poll.  With adjustments, Murtha leads 50%-37%.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/murtha-in-trouble-after-calling-constituents-racist-2008-10-23.html

Most surprising to me is the fact that this Russell guy has actually raised $2,200,000.

Here's the reason why: http://www.bmwdirectmail.com/pages/whats_new.asp

The same crooked firm that "raises" money for Deborah Honeycutt.

[Ronnie]

Whoa!  Russell could win this thing?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Generally very conservative Democrats with a lot of veterans.  If Murtha hadn't been there forever, it would be GOP leaning district.

Right. When pigs fly.
This district was purpose-drawn to create the Republican seats around it (one of which flipped in 2006).

Uh...the idea that this seat is at least a tossup when Murtha leaves is well respected by both sides.

"It is commonly believed by political hacks that..." and "it is rational to think that..." seldom have much to do with each other.

For reference...



...whatever that is, it's not an innocently-drawn district of any sort. I'm sure it's a complete coincidence that it borders on no less than three "natural" marginal districts...

Interestingly, Murtha underperformed in the western half of the district in 2006. This guy clearly doesn't win off the back of a personal vote, not these days anyway.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I have been getting e-mails to donate to Russell for more than a year. I really hope he wins this one to teach a lesson to the "I will just buy my reelection with Pork" crowd. I think that Barletta has a better chance in the 11th then Russell in the 12th. But I would not be surprised if both go our way. A lot of Incumbent's have lost in primaries mostly Republicans but it does prove that the people are not going to tollerate any crap or corruption on either side. Unfortunately for Murtha he has spare servings of both Crap(Haditha Marines/the racist comment) and Corruption(bullying reformers for trying to strip his earmarks). 

[Brittain33]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/murtha-in-trouble-after-calling-constituents-racist-2008-10-23.html

Most surprising to me is the fact that this Russell guy has actually raised $2,200,000.

Here's the reason why: http://www.bmwdirectmail.com/pages/whats_new.asp

The same crooked firm that "raises" money for Deborah Honeycutt.

Oh man. That's a shame for those donors. That $2 million was flushed down a toilet. If Russell gets one tv ad out of it, he'll be doing well.

[Keystone Phil]

Generally very conservative Democrats with a lot of veterans.  If Murtha hadn't been there forever, it would be GOP leaning district.

Right. When pigs fly.
This district was purpose-drawn to create the Republican seats around it (one of which flipped in 2006).

Uh...the idea that this seat is at least a tossup when Murtha leaves is well respected by both sides.

"It is commonly believed by political hacks that..." and "it is rational to think that..." seldom have much to do with each other.

For reference...



...whatever that is, it's not an innocently-drawn district of any sort. I'm sure it's a complete coincidence that it borders on no less than three "natural" marginal districts...

Interestingly, Murtha underperformed in the western half of the district in 2006. This guy clearly doesn't win off the back of a personal vote, not these days anyway.

I can find quite a few Democratic "hacks" that agree with me, Al. And don't claim that I'm a hack either.

I don't know why you're repeating that it's not an innocently drawn district. I never have and never will argue that it is a normal district. I don't know what your point is. That doesn't mean that it being drawn to make Murtha safe (so that other seats around the 12th can be better for the GOP) doesn't mean that it won't be in play when it's gone.

Clearly doesn't win because of a personal vote? Ha. Ok. So whoever runs here as a Dem whenever Murtha is done (assuming the district is pretty much the same after redistricting...which I guess is assuming a lot) will do better than Murtha? I think the coal fumes have been getting to you, Al...

[Keystone Phil]

I have been getting e-mails to donate to Russell for more than a year. I really hope he wins this one to teach a lesson to the "I will just buy my reelection with Pork" crowd. I think that Barletta has a better chance in the 11th then Russell in the 12th. But I would not be surprised if both go our way. A lot of Incumbent's have lost in primaries mostly Republicans but it does prove that the people are not going to tollerate any crap or corruption on either side. Unfortunately for Murtha he has spare servings of both Crap(Haditha Marines/the racist comment) and Corruption(bullying reformers for trying to strip his earmarks). 

If we win the 11th and 12th but lose the 3rd, this will officially be the weirdest election year that I have lived through.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can find quite a few Democratic "hacks" that agree with me, Al.

Of course you can. I didn't specify a party in that description.

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I stand by that statement because it's obviously true. He has a personal vote of sorts in the east of the district (ie; the areas he's represented for decades), but his numbers in the western half were frankly anemic.

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Presumably not in the initial election. But a generic Democrat would have won in that district by quite a bit more than Murtha did in 2006. Especially if our mythical generic Democrat had been a Congresscritter for much of the area for decades.

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District's lost too many people to stay as it is. The logical thing to do would be to create a larger version of the old PA-20, I think.

[Keystone Phil]

Of course you can. I didn't specify a party in that description.

Why would Democratic hacks say that the seat is a tossup?

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"Obviously true"

Ok, pal.