GA-Rasmussen: Chambliss leads Martin by 2%

[TheresNoMoney]

500 Likely Voters, 10/22, MOE +/- 4.5%

Chambliss    47%
Martin          45%

Link

[Lief 🗽]

I'm afraid that Martin probably doesn't have time to take the lead. If these numbers had been showing up a month ago, then maybe, but at this point he needs to be ahead if he wants to win in 2 weeks. Of course, 35% black turnout would turn everything on its head, if the early voting breakdowns hold.

[Aizen]

Chambliss lost four points since the last Rasmussen poll two weeks ago. Saxby Chambliss is done for.

[Lunar]

Dude, are you serious?

Done for?

When are you suddenly favored to lose when you're a GOP incumbent in a right-trending area facing some nobody and leading in every poll?

That said, I'm starting to predict Chambliss's lost.  Even some GOP operatives are starting to predict  >30% overall black turnout in GA, due to high numbers of "unlikely voter" blacks showing up to early vote.  Martin will be 100% carried over the finish like by Obama if he is at all.

[Bacon King]

I'm pretty sure this is headed to a runoff, and I'm also pretty sure Chambliss would win said runoff.

[Franzl]

I'm pretty sure this is headed to a runoff, and I'm also pretty sure Chambliss would win said runoff.

Georgia has run-offs?

Do any other states have similar laws?

I knew Louisiana used to have a jungle primary...but do they still have run-offs under the new system for federal offices if no candidate reaches 50%?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm pretty sure this is headed to a runoff, and I'm also pretty sure Chambliss would win said runoff.

Georgia has run-offs?

Do any other states have similar laws?

I knew Louisiana used to have a jungle primary...but do they still have run-offs under the new system for federal offices if no candidate reaches 50%?

Louisiana still has the open primary for state elections, but it's switched to a traditional primary-primary runoff-general format for federal. I think Georgia and Louisiana are the only states still using runoffs in general elections.

[TheresNoMoney]

I'm pretty sure this is headed to a runoff, and I'm also pretty sure Chambliss would win said runoff.

If there's a runoff, Chambliss would definitely win. A runoff is the nightmare scenario for Martin.

[Lunar]

Not to mention that if the Dems had 59 seats and Chambliss's runoff was the 60th, I'm pretty sure Georgians would NOT want the Dems to have a filibuster-proof majority.

[MarkWarner08]

Martin is desperately low on cash. If he makes it to a runoff, the DSCC will also be broke.

[Lunar]

Martin is desperately low on cash. If he makes it to a runoff, the DSCC will also be broke.

Money wouldn't be a problem for the run-off if it became the focus of the country.

[MarkWarner08]

Martin is desperately low on cash. If he makes it to a runoff, the DSCC will also be broke.

Money wouldn't be a problem for the run-off if it became the focus of the country.

A paucity of money no longer would be a problem, but the money itself would be a problem. Chambliss would run ads claiming Martin was being bankrolled by coastal elites who want to gain a filibuster-proof majority that will rubber-stamp Obama's agenda. Then again, if he runs against Obama, he could energize black voters.

[Bacon King]

I'm pretty sure this is headed to a runoff, and I'm also pretty sure Chambliss would win said runoff.

Georgia has run-offs?

Do any other states have similar laws?

I knew Louisiana used to have a jungle primary...but do they still have run-offs under the new system for federal offices if no candidate reaches 50%?

Georgia has runoffs for all statewide elections in which no candidate reaches 50%. Don't know of any other state.

[HardRCafé]

Martin would be lucky to keep Chambliss below 50%.  I doubt it.