Nixon wins in 1960
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:53:14 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  Nixon wins in 1960
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Nixon wins in 1960  (Read 1107 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 23, 2008, 03:32:17 PM »
« edited: September 15, 2009, 07:58:31 AM by Beef »

As I study the rise of the conservative movement in America, I'm thinking about how different the political landscape would have formed if Nixon had defeated Kennedy in 1960.

*Nixon/Lodge would have entered the White House under the banner of
Eisenhower's moderate, "Modern Republicans."
*Nixon would have sent federal marshals to integrate the University of Alabama.
*Nixon would have signed some form of a Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act.
*Nixon would have led our ramp-up of involvement in Vietnam.

So, following this...

In 1964, Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater makes a very public break with the GOP and becomes a Democrat.  He enters the race for the presidential nomination against weak liberal competition, including JFK, Hubert H. Humphrey, and LBJ.  No one really takes his candidacy seriously until he wins California's open primary on the strength of a grassroots movement spearheaded by ultra-conservative groups such as the John Birch Society.  The Birchers accuse Eisenhower and Lodge of being Communists who are controlling the Nixon Administration and purposefully losing the conflict in Vietnam.

Thanks to California, the south, and a handful of western states, Goldwater barely gains enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination.  Most non-Goldwater delegates walk out of the convention.  One notable guest speaker is Republican actor Ronald Reagan, who gives a ringing endorsement of the Democratic nominee, and a rousing speech carried on national television.

Goldwater's campaign centers around criticism of Nixon's handling of Vietnam (he advocates the use of massive air power and hints at the possibility of using small-scale nuclear weapons), and the "unconstitutional" Civil Rights Act, which he sees as destroying "states' rights" and taking away people's freedom of association.  Nixon paints Goldwater as a wacky extremist, out of touch with the American people, who would lead us into nuclear war.  Nixon wins in a landslide, with Goldwater limited to eight southern states, Arizona, Utah, and Idaho.  Nixon's victory is hailed as the triumph of the "consensus center."

1964



Nixon/Lodge (R) 433
Goldwater/Connally (D) 105


The Democrats are left with a huge problem: how to marry the party machine of the "Solid South" with northern labor interests.  The two bases of political power seem to be at odds.

In 1966, Reagan becomes a Democrat and runs for governor of California.  During the campaign, race riots erupt in Los Angeles, and Reagan seizes on this as a political opportunity.  Reagan plays on the racial anxieties of working-class whites across the state while never explicitly referring to race.  Phrases such as "law and order," "safety and security," "property rights," and "preserving our neighborhoods," resonate with white voters of all economic backgrounds.  Reagan wins the election in a landslide.

President Nixon uses the Tonkin Gulf incident to increase U.S. involvement in Vietnam; protection of South Vietnam was seen by the Administration as crucial, not only to prevent the spread of Communism, but also to rebut charges on the Right that he was soft on the issue.  A North Vietnam/Viet Cong offensive in 1967 results in massive U.S. casualties and provides a boost to the growing anti-war movement among the nation's youth.

1968 sees bitter presidential primary battles between hawk and dove candidates.  On the GOP side, the liberal Nelson Rockefeller advocates pursuing peace with North Vietnam and ending U.S. involvement, while Michigan Governor George Romney promises victory.  The Democratic race is between New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy, the peace candidate, and Governor Reagan, whose campaign is based on victory and U.S. strength abroad, and "personal freedom," "states' rights," and job creation at home. 

Alabama Governor George Wallace also tries a run for the Democratic nod, but doesn't have much support outside of the Deep South.  He forms his American Independent party as an attempt to be the only true segregationist running.

By convention season, Romney has clearly wrapped up the GOP nomination, but the Democratic race has torn the party in half, with no coalition seemingly in sight.  Reagan has won the southern and western primaries, and RFK has won the midwest and northeast primaries.  The nation watches the convention in Chicago, as vote after vote is held on the convention floor, with RFK finally getting the nomination late in the night.  Crowds of anti-war protesters occupying Lincoln Park erupt into cheers: they have a champion.

RKF barely defeats Romney in the 1968 general election.  Support from the South was crucial in his win, but his victories in the region were slim, thanks to some whites voting for Wallace and many black voters, voting for the first time, voting for the party of Lincoln and Nixon.  Enough white southerners held their nose and went with their traditional Democratic Party to give RFK most of the South.  His choice of Georgia ex-governor Carl Sanders as running mate helped.

1968



Robert F. Kennedy/Carl Sanders (D) 270
George Romney/Clifford Case (R) 251
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay (I) 17


RFK's single term is a disaster.  Saigon falls a year after he makes peace with North Vietnam and withdraws.  Many conservatives are furious when he opens diplomatic relations with  China.  The end of a gold standard and move to fiat currency leads to massive inflation, which RFK responds to with wage and price controls.  Economic conservatives and foreign policy hawks are galvanized against him.  He can't even get cooperation from his own divided party, let alone from the whole of Congress, and none of his social agenda is passed.

In 1972 the unthinkable happens: Ronald Reagan defeats the incumbent RFK for the Democratic nomination.  A huge issue to win over the northern labor faction of the party is busing.  Working-class ethnic whites are furious at court-ordered school integration, and Reagan's cry for "school choice" and an end to "government activism" wins these voters over.  The continued theme of "law and order" also persuades these voters.  Reagan's call for a return to "traditional morality" plays well with Catholics (this will become especially important when abortion becomes an issue in 1973).

The peace movement is discredited, the youth counterculture is in disarray, and the New Left has largely been silenced as a force within the Democratic Party.

Nelson Rockefeller wins the GOP nomination on a platform of "sound economic policy" as a cure for the nation's crippling stagflation, and a continuance of Nixon's Civil Rights agenda that faltered under RFK.

Thus, by 1972, we have the Democrats as a coalition of white southerners and white northern labor.  The Republicans are the party of big business, eastern elites, and blacks.  The dividing line between the parties is "traditionalist" vs. "neo-liberal progressive."

Rockefeller's broad-based progressive/moderate base is no match for Reagan's support in the South, urban North, and California.  Reagan wins the 1972 election handily, initiating a new, populist, conservative/labor Democrat coalition.

1972



Ronald Reagan/Lloyd Bentsen (D) 352
Nelson Rockefeller/Gerald Ford (R) 186
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2008, 10:16:40 PM »

Ooh, fun. Smiley
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 12 queries.