Miami Herald: Obama leads Florida by 7%

[Alcon]

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/10/times-poll-obam.html

Can't enter it, right now

[MR maverick]

Obama is winning the jewish Voters 74% - McCains 22%  according to gallup.

If this is correct there should be no way Obama loses Florida by anything more then 0.5 % at the most. 

[J. J.]

I doubt if this one is correct; we had a M-D out two days ago that showed McCain leading.

[Lunar]

Doesn't Schroth Eldon & Associates / Polling Co. have one of the best records in FL?

[Lief 🗽]

Nate Silver said they had a pretty good track record. I seriously doubt Obama is leading by more than 4 points, if that high at all, in Florida though.

[Rowan]

Nate Silver said they had a pretty good track record. I seriously doubt Obama is leading by more than 4 points, if that high at all, in Florida though.

Of course Nate Silver said that. He's a liberal hack.

[Sensei]

probably a garbage poll. But Silver says it's good... and he knows what he's talking about...

[??????????]

But Silver says it's good... and he knows what he's talking about...

*chuckle*

[Lunar]

Nate Silver said they had a pretty good track record. I seriously doubt Obama is leading by more than 4 points, if that high at all, in Florida though.

Of course Nate Silver said that. He's a liberal hack.

Oh shut up, you're becoming more and more ridiculous sir.

A good track record is a good track record and this one has one of the best if I remember right.  Nate's not about to take a poll with an awful track record and claim it's gold (what you do).

[The Ex-Factor]

Why is he a liberal hack?

edit: I've been following his baseball work long before politics, and his PECOTA projection system has helped me win a few fantasy leagues. It's dead-on accurate - it predicted a complete scrub named Wily Mo Pena would hit over 25 home runs in 2004, which absolutely no one else saw coming. It predicted the Rays would actually be good this year, which seemed ridiculous a year ago. I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Lunar]

Why is he a liberal hack?

Because he's liberal he can't do simple math

[Torie]

Obama is winning the jewish Voters 74% - McCains 22%  according to gallup.

If this is correct there should be no way Obama loses Florida by anything more then 0.5 % at the most. 

Do you know what percentage of those who vote in Florida are Jewish? If not, check it out.  And then check what percentage Bush 2004 got of the Jewish vote in Florida. The end.

[cinyc]

Obama is winning the jewish Voters 74% - McCains 22%  according to gallup.

If this is correct there should be no way Obama loses Florida by anything more then 0.5 % at the most. 

Do you know what percentage of those who vote in Florida are Jewish? If not, check it out.  And then check what percentage Bush 2004 got of the Jewish vote in Florida. The end.

Hint: 5%.  80%-20%.  Bush not winning.

The end.

[Alcon]

Obama is winning the jewish Voters 74% - McCains 22%  according to gallup.

If this is correct there should be no way Obama loses Florida by anything more then 0.5 % at the most. 

Do you know what percentage of those who vote in Florida are Jewish? If not, check it out.  And then check what percentage Bush 2004 got of the Jewish vote in Florida. The end.

Hint: 5%.  80%-20%.  Bush not winning.

The end.

Well, MoE +/-8.2%.  Based on local precinct results I've seen, I doubt it was 80% -- closer to the national average, but maybe in that range.  That or Kerry performed much worse among non-Jewish demos who happen to live in heavily Jewish areas (possible but less likely)

[Torie]

Look in Halledale, or whatever the town is called, I think in Broward, which is almost all Jewish. That might cleanse out the noise, at least with the older Jewish vote anyway.

[Sam Spade]

Schroth has a decent record in Florida, but it leans Democratic.

[Alcon]

Look in Halledale, or whatever the town is called, I think in Broward, which is almost all Jewish. That might cleanse out the noise, at least with the older Jewish vote anyway.

Hmm.  The Precinct Finder gives me Y012, which I assume is 12Y.

Gore 73.44%
Bush 24.02%
Other 2.54%

Kerry 68.02%
Bush 28.72%
Other 3.24%

That's for the City Hall area.  I'll see if it has others.

Edit: The Jewish Community Center is in 11Y, which went 72-27 Gore to 65-33 Kerry.

[??????????]

Precinct finder? *perk* where?

[Alcon]

Precinct finder? *perk* where?

http://www.browardsoe.org/PrecinctFinder.aspx

What county do you want it for?  Might be able to dig it up for ya

[??????????]

Precinct finder? *perk* where?

http://www.browardsoe.org/PrecinctFinder.aspx

What county do you want it for?  Might be able to dig it up for ya

Ah yeah, I know where that's at for what I need, it's just very tedious to go through. I thought their may have been some global compilation.

[Alcon]

Precinct finder? *perk* where?

http://www.browardsoe.org/PrecinctFinder.aspx

What county do you want it for?  Might be able to dig it up for ya

Ah yeah, I know where that's at for what I need, it's just very tedious to go through. I thought their may have been some global compilation.

I don't think Florida does, no, sorry.

I think all of the "Y" precincts are Hallendale Beach, and they all behaved the same way.

[Torie]

Hallendale is supposedly 15% black, so there is some noise there I guess.

[Alcon]

Hallendale is supposedly 15% black, so there is some noise there I guess.

I had a precinct that was entirely Jewish retirement homes but I lost it...bah.

Damn Melting Pot!

[Torie]

Who lives in 8Y I wonder?


1Y   372   50.54%   46.51%
2Y   284   56.34%   41.20%
3Y   581   60.24%   37.18%
4Y   284   55.99%   41.55%
5Y   599   69.12%   30.05%
6Y   362   62.43%   35.36%
7Y   388   63.92%   35.05%
8Y   392   48.21%   50.00%
9Y   354   63.84%   33.33%
10Y   111   67.57%   29.73%
11Y   496   64.52%   33.06%
12Y   247   68.02%   28.74%
13Y   464   67.24%   31.47%
14Y   569   70.12%   28.12%
15Y   525   92.19%   5.71%
16Y   495   66.67%   31.92%
17Y   381   91.86%   6.56%

[Alcon]

Who lives in 8Y I wonder?

Meet the good people of 8Y

The residential borders seem limited entirely to Golden Isles.  None of that Ocean Drive stuff is in the precinct.