GA: Insider Advantage: Obama 48, McCain 47 (!)

[The Ex-Factor]

New Poll: Georgia President by Insider Advantage on 2008-10-23

Summary: D: 48%, R: 47%, I: 2%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL:  Full Poll Details


Click the link for what looks like astute analysis from some guy named Matt Towery. He also predicts that the Senate race will either be a runoff or a Martin victory.

[TheresNoMoney]

Obama is winning 28% of whites in this poll. If that holds up, he has a better than 50% chance to win Georgia.

[??????????]

IA = chuckle

[Josh/Devilman88]

IA = chuckle

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I want to believe this.... but I just can't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well at least we'll know something about the state nationwide if Georgia is not called right after closing.

[Lief 🗽]

IA is a horrible pollster, so this should be ignored. However, Georgia is very much in play, and, at the very least, it won't be called immediately.

[exopolitician]

I don't think Georgia is in play at all. And this poll is kinda ridiculous.

[Verily]

Insider Advantage was the one showing the race close all summer while everyone else had it (relatively) safe for McCain. They have tended to be Obama's most friendly pollster in Georgia for whatever reason; they were his least-friendly pollster everywhere across the South in the primaries.

[Rococo4]

yeah, no

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

GEORGIA PRESIDENT -
51% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama
  1% Others


GEORGIA SENATE -
52% (R) Chambliss
47% (D) Martin

[© tweed]

GEORGIA SENATE -
52% (R) Chambliss
47% (D) Martin

the Libertarian in that race is going to get a few points and may keep Chambliss under 50%, which would lead to a runoff

[Eraserhead]

IA = chuckle

[classical liberal]

GEORGIA SENATE -
52% (R) Chambliss
47% (D) Martin

the Libertarian in that race is going to get a few points and may keep Chambliss under 50%, which would lead to a runoff

That would be the likely result of the runoff, where there is no black candidate at the top of the ticket inspiring the forces of black racial tribalism and white guilt to drive big Democratic turnout.

[Dan the Roman]

GEORGIA SENATE -
52% (R) Chambliss
47% (D) Martin

the Libertarian in that race is going to get a few points and may keep Chambliss under 50%, which would lead to a runoff

That would be the likely result of the runoff, where there is no black candidate at the top of the ticket inspiring the forces of black racial tribalism and white guilt to drive big Democratic turnout.

I tend to think so too, and can't remember the last time a Democrat won a run-off in the South. That said, the examples of Travis Childers and Ciro Rodriguez stand out. I think if by some chance McCain won, I would lean it slightly to Martin, as Bonilla proved, an incumbent in a runoff, no matter how weak the opposition, has problems.

[Lief 🗽]

The run-off is tough, and both candidates will have factors in their favor. Martin will enjoy Democratic base fresh off a (hopefully) dramatic national victory, as well as Democratic donors and surrogates with high morale. Chambliss, on the other hand, will face the opposite, with a Republican base dispirited following a colossal nationwide defeat. In Chambliss' favor, however, is the fact that black turnout will probably be somewhat lower without Obama on the ticket, and he'll be able to frame a Martin win as a blank check for total liberal control of national government. Of course, if Obama wins Georgia (or almost wins it), that may not work that well (though I suppose that if Obama wins Georgia he probably pushes Martin over 50% at the same time).

[TheresNoMoney]

The run-off is tough, and both candidates will have factors in their favor. Martin will enjoy Democratic base fresh off a (hopefully) dramatic national victory, as well as Democratic donors and surrogates with high morale. Chambliss, on the other hand, will face the opposite, with a Republican base dispirited following a colossal

It wouldn't matter, black voters would show up at a very low rate for a Senate run-off election. Martin is toast if it goes to runoff.

[HardRCafé]

Click the link for what looks like astute analysis from some guy named Matt Towery.

This is the first time you have heard of him?

Safe Barr.

[Ronnie]

IA = chuckle

^^^