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jfern
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« on: September 17, 2004, 12:50:37 am »
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Iowa Democratic poll 1/9-1/11:
John Kerry 9
Howard Dean 26
John Edwards 7
Wesley Clark 20
Al Sharpton 3
Dennis Kucinich 2
Other/None/No opinion 5
Joe Lieberman 9
Dick Gephardt 7
Carol Moseley Braun n/a

Iowa Democratic results 1/19:
John Kerry 38
John Edwards 32
Howard Dean 18
Dick Gephardt 11
Dennis Kucinich 1
Wesley Clark 0
Al Sharpton 0
Joe Lieberman 0
Carol Moseley Braun 0
Other/None/No opinion 0

They really nailed that one.
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2004, 12:53:19 am »
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And here:
Bush leads 52-39 .....
in late October 2000
http://www.guardian.co.uk/US_election_race/Story/0,2763,389295,00.html

Just 10 days after that poll was released, Al Gore won the popular vote by half a point.
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Hegemon
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2004, 01:03:41 am »
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You can see the entire, day-by-day trend for Gallup's (and everyone elses') 2000 tracking poll here:


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

Gallup fluctuated wildly, with a 19(!) point swing in 3 days at one point.  
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2004, 01:24:18 am »
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And here:
Bush leads 52-39 .....
in late October 2000
http://www.guardian.co.uk/US_election_race/Story/0,2763,389295,00.html

Just 10 days after that poll was released, Al Gore won the popular vote by half a point.

Gallup showed Bush well ahead, until the final days when the DUI story brought him down.

This is exactly what happenned according to the conventional wisdom, and it isn't very far from what other polls showed.
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2004, 01:28:48 am »
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Well, I don't remember what day the story broke, but Bush did go from a 5 point lead on Nov. 2-4 to a 2 point lead on Nov. 5-6. As The Vorlon would tell you though, that might just be random noise....and even if it did indicate a true tightening, it's hard to say for sure that it was the DUI story.

I am inclined to believe the DUI story did make a little difference though, since Bush's campaign was so heavily based on the idea that he was more moral than Gore and would do a better job restoring honor and dignity and morality to the Oval Office. Since he ran so much on his character, anything that damaged his character had the potential to hurt him a bit.
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2004, 01:30:50 am »
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Hey John Ford. Look for another one of those "suspicious stories" to be played by the dems just prior to election night. You can bet they have a nugget just waiting to be thrown to th public. I don't think it will fool enough people this time though, sadly it will fool some. Some people just don't like playing fair, because they can't win that way. Rules don't really mean anything to some people.
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2004, 01:40:44 am »
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Was the DUI story false?

I agree that it shouldn't have mattered in people's votes...but was it untrue?
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2004, 01:46:02 am »
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Was the DUI story false?

I agree that it shouldn't have mattered in people's votes...but was it untrue?

I don't know man, but should it have really mattered? Lets say it is true, everyone makes mistakes. Plus, don't you get tired of people rehashing 4 yr old stuff to try and sway an election?
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2004, 01:49:48 am »
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I agree, it shouldn't have mattered. But you could say the same thing about the Swift Boat stuff.

Face it, both sides do it. I agree that we should talk about the issues and not all of this extraneous BS, but that's politics unfortunately, and it's naive to say that one side is worse than the other.
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2004, 01:58:26 am »
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I agree, it shouldn't have mattered. But you could say the same thing about the Swift Boat stuff.

Face it, both sides do it. I agree that we should talk about the issues and not all of this extraneous BS, but that's politics unfortunately, and it's naive to say that one side is worse than the other.

Your one of the most reasonable people I have talked to about that issue. I think debating the issues we face at hand are the important things in this election. Not trying to show who served honorably 30 years ago while in the service. I don't think military service even qualifies a person to hold the presidency. Im not a Clinton fan, but I never thought the fact he evaded military service disqualified him from becoming prez., although I think he had other issues that did.
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2004, 02:09:59 am »
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Bush was asked if he had a DWI arrest in the '70s. He said no. Releasing the DWI arrest information at whatever time they felt like was completely fair game. Bush was attacking Gore for his positions on the issues in 1974. Of course a DWI by the older Bush in 1976 was relevant.
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2004, 02:16:11 am »
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Bush was asked if he had a DWI arrest in the '70s. He said no. Releasing the DWI arrest information at whatever time they felt like was completely fair game. Bush was attacking Gore for his positions on the issues in 1974. Of course a DWI by the older Bush in 1976 was relevant.

A couple of things. #1 Why was this issue (DWI) not settled in 2000 if you still have problems with it and why are we re-hashing it all now? #2 What was Bush attacking Gore for in 1974? I think most people would disagree that a DWI by GWB in 1976 is not relevant as to whether he is capable of performing as president.
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2004, 02:19:35 am »
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Bush was asked if he had a DWI arrest in the '70s. He said no. Releasing the DWI arrest information at whatever time they felt like was completely fair game. Bush was attacking Gore for his positions on the issues in 1974. Of course a DWI by the older Bush in 1976 was relevant.
A couple of things. #1 Why was this issue (DWI) not settled in 2000 if you still have problems with it and why are we re-hashing it all now? #2 What was Bush attacking Gore for in 1974? I think most people would disagree that a DWI by GWB in 1976 is not relevant as to whether he is capable of performing as president.

As I said, I agree it's not relevant. Also, Ford was the one who brought it up, saying that's why Bush's numbers dropped in 2000. I haven't heard anyone else talk about it this year in the media.
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2004, 07:15:43 am »
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Gallup is maybe not a very good firm...

I don't know why Vorlon trusts Gallup more than others (as our friend John Zogby, who was better than Gallup for Iowa caucus)). Maybe than Vorlon is Frank Newport? Wink
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« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2004, 07:26:45 am »
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Um everyone missed the primary, pal.

Ignore Gallup all you like. No is forcing you to think they are good. The numbers prove they are good. If the election was today, Bush would in. Handily.
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« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2004, 07:52:36 am »
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Gallup is maybe not a very good firm...

I don't know why Vorlon trusts Gallup more than others (as our friend John Zogby, who was better than Gallup for Iowa caucus)). Maybe than Vorlon is Frank Newport? Wink


Gallup is not a good poll? Of course when you guys are down its not. But I must warn you that they have predicted every presidential election almost exactly with the exception of 1948.
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2004, 09:01:33 am »
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Gallup is maybe not a very good firm...

I don't know why Vorlon trusts Gallup more than others (as our friend John Zogby, who was better than Gallup for Iowa caucus)). Maybe than Vorlon is Frank Newport? Wink

Gallup is not a good poll? Of course when you guys are down its not. But I must warn you that they have predicted every presidential election almost exactly with the exception of 1948.

Gallup did its last poll a week before the primary.

Zoby polled right up until the day of the primary.

That would explain the difference.  Gephardt did a murder-suicide on Dean in the last week to keep Dean from winning.  This killed both of their numbers.

Zogby is very good if there is no Republican in the race.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2004, 10:43:30 am »
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Oh PLEEEEEAAAASSSSSEEEEEE....

Let's start attacking Gallup now Smiley

Facts:

2000 Race

Final Gallup Poll

Bush 48
Kerry 46
Nader 4

Actual Result:

Bush 47.87%
Kerry 48.38
Nader 2.73%

Error:

Bush 0.13%
Gore 2.38%
Nader 1.27%

Wow - Average Candidate error was 1.28% - you're right a really sloppy outfit - I would throw this poll out...

So how did they do in 2002 you may ask...?

Well, according to an anaylsis done by the Natioinal Council on Public Polling, of all the firms surveyed, the firm with the lowest average error was, you guessed it... Gallup...

http://www.ncpp.org/2002SenGovPoll/2002ElectionPolls.html

Ok...so Gallup go lucky in 2000 and 2002...

Well... going back to 1936...

The record of accuracy achieved by Gallup in these "horse-race" or "head-to head" measurements is unsurpassed. For example, in the sixteen presidential elections since 1936, the deviation between Gallup's final pre-election survey figures and the actual election results is 2.2% and, since 1960, only 1.5%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=1210

Gallup has been polling for 70 years - yes you can pick on one poll here and there - in 70 years you get a few bad polls.

But year in year out, poll after poll after poll, Gallup can go toe to toe and come out looking just fine Wink

That being said, I will post AGAIN for those of you who missed it the 1st, 2nd, 9th, and 43rd times I posted it...

Point #1

The Gallup poll is designed to do one thing, and one thing only.... Predict the outcome of an election when you are very close to the actual election.

The Gallup likely voter screen is very sensitive to changes in voter motivation and interest and hence when you are many weeks out produces large and artificial swings in the race.

Point #2

Any poll taken right now is, by definition "wrong" in the Gallup likely voter screen is based on if the election were held tomorrow - the election is NOT tomorrow Wink

Point #3

Gallup has Bush +8 among RVs
Gallup has Bush +13 among LVs

This 5% gap is historically a bit large, but simply represents that GOP supportes are really cranked right now.  Their candidate is up and doing well.  DanRatherBiasedMemoGate has the GOP faithfull all worked up, while Dem supporters are a bit depressed for all the same reasons. - Of course more GOP supportes are interested and thus "likely" right now.

Will this huge intensity gap between the GOP and Dems last until election day..?

Probably not.

But this poll is a snapshot of Today, NOT a prediction of Tomorrow.

and TODAY the GOP is more energized Wink

What does Gallup predict for Nov 2nd..?

Lets wait for their Nov 1st Poll to find out Smiley

Point #4

Gallup uses the "purest" of all methodologoes in the sense that they weight very little and place vey few "boundry conditions" on their sample.

The benefit of this is that when the electorate truly actually does change, Gallup will catch it when many other pollsters will throw the proverbial baby out with the methodological bathwater by weighting changes away.

In 2002 when most pundits were "stunned" (To use Zogby's words) that the GOP gained in both the House and the SEnate, Gallup predicted it perfectly - The final Gallup "Generic" congressional ballot had the GOP up 4% (actual was 5%) while Zogby, ABC, etc all had the Dems up 4 or 5

In 1994 when the GOP wave took control of the House and Senate, everybody was stunned - except Gallup who also had it right.  (Mason Dixon also had an amazing year in 1994 as well to be fair)

The price Gallup pays for this is they get a bit more pure random noise in their results than other pollsters.

It's not a "flaw" it's a choice.

Bottom line

Is Bush up 13%..?

I personally don't think so.

I think he has a "real" lead of 4% or so, plus some "froth" due to the GOP being rather cranked up right now.

For the record, I also expect that we will see a lot of national polls in the next few days where Bush is up high single digits.

It likely will not last, but that's where the race is now Wink

« Last Edit: September 17, 2004, 10:50:21 am by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2004, 11:54:59 am »
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Oh PLEEEEEAAAASSSSSEEEEEE....

Let's start attacking Gallup now Smiley

Facts:

2000 Race

Final Gallup Poll

Bush 48
Kerry 46
Nader 4


Fine.
But just few days earlier to that poll the gap was 13%.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2004, 12:03:19 pm »
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Fine.
But just few days earlier to that poll the gap was 13%.



Point #1

The Gallup poll is designed to do one thing, and one thing only.... Predict the outcome of an election when you are very close to the actual election.

The Gallup likely voter screen is very sensitive to changes in voter motivation and interest and hence when you are many weeks out produces large and artificial swings in the race.

Bottom line

Is Bush up 13%..?

I personally don't think so.

I think he has a "real" lead of 4% or so, plus some "froth" due to the GOP being rather cranked up right now.


In 2000, the Bush DUI hit a few dayes before the vote, this naturally scraed a lot of GOPers, and pumped up a lot of Dems.

Hence the big change in the Gallup likely voter screen.

In plain english... again....

The Gallup likely voter screen is very sensitive to changes in voter motivation and interest and hence when you are many weeks out produces large and artificial swings in the race.

large and artificial swings in the race.

large and artificial swings in the race.

large and artificial swings in the race.

large and artificial swings in the race.

large and artificial swings in the race.

English is my second language, so perhaps I am not expressing this idea correctly, I sometimes have difficulty communicating conplex ideas...

Is some part of the phrase:

large and artificial swings in the race.

unclear ?

I am open to an alternate wording Wink



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« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2004, 12:09:44 pm »
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Shouldn't Gallup develop a system that actually tracks the election! If it is a system designed to predict the outcome about a week or so before the election, as Vorlon has said- fantastic. But why release polls using this methodology one and a half months before the election if they know it's not accurate? That applies to state polls too. In 2000, as Vorlon says, they were out by 1.82%- which- yes is a good call, but that is based on the final poll- which has Bush winning the PV, when we all know he lost. So- Gallup, along with any other company who had Bush ahead, got the election result wrong. Of course, it didnt matter when it came to the electoral college, Bush won, but Gallup was soley predicting the popular vote. If the Vorlon is correct in regards to Gallups methodology (which I think we can all be sure he is!) then im not trusting a single Gallup poll until much much later.
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« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2004, 12:11:09 pm »
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Shouldn't Gallup develop a system that actually tracks the election! If it is a system designed to predict the outcome about a week or so before the election, as Vorlon has said- fantastic. But why release polls using this methodology one and a half months before the election if they know it's not accurate? That applies to state polls too. In 2000, as Vorlon says, they were out by 1.82%- which- yes is a good call, but that is based on the final poll- which has Bush winning the PV, when we all know he lost. So- Gallup, along with any other company who had Bush ahead, got the election result wrong. Of course, it didnt matter when it came to the electoral college, Bush won, but Gallup was soley predicting the popular vote. If the Vorlon is correct in regards to Gallups methodology (which I think we can all be sure he is!) then im not trusting a single Gallup poll until much much later.


You just don't trust it because Bush is winning handily and you can't accept the fact that Americans are "stupid" enough to elect Bush again.
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« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2004, 12:17:14 pm »
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Erm...no, States Rights, if you look through my earlier posts you will see that I state pretty clearly that Bush is still ahead by up to 2%. I don't believe he is 13 points ahead and there are up to a half dozen other polls that say the same. Secondly- where does this 'Americans are stupid' thing come from? I have American relative and I study American history and American politics at University and some of my political heroes are American. So I think that your hissy-fit post was a little uncalled for.
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« Reply #23 on: September 17, 2004, 12:20:16 pm »
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Actually, I agree with states, I CAN'T believe Americans are stupid enough to vote for Bush.  That is the only way I can avoid severe depression prior to the election.  The idea that more people believe Bush should win this election than don't seriously makes me question the intelligence of the American people.
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« Reply #24 on: September 17, 2004, 12:20:21 pm »
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Erm...no, States Rights, if you look through my earlier posts you will see that I state pretty clearly that Bush is still ahead by up to 2%. I don't believe he is 13 points ahead and there are up to a half dozen other polls that say the same. Secondly- where does this 'Americans are stupid' thing come from? I have American relative and I study American history and American politics at University and some of my political heroes are American. So I think that your hissy-fit post was a little uncalled for.


I know many brits and liberals..some on this board that feel America is stupid to re-elect Bush. I don't believe he is 13% ahead but I do believe its closer to 8-10% either way its unrecoverable. Bush wins with +300 Evs.
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