Gallup's track record

[Shira]

large and artificial swings in the race.

unclear ?

I am open to an alternate wording

The problem is not with your wording.
Very hard to explain an eleven percent jump in few days, unless something very dramatic happened (an it did not).
Having said all this, I must admit, that I am very disappointed that Bush probably does have a real lead of 5-6%.

[??????????]

This is pretty close to what will happen :

[afleitch]

I am not a liberal. I'm a Centrist who believes in small government and low taxation but also in keeping their noses out of people private affairs. And to further prove my point, you'd be suprised to know, two American politicians I admire are Richard Nixon and Barry Goldwater along with a swathe of Democrats.

[??????????]

I am not a liberal. I'm a Centrist who believes in small government and low taxation but also in keeping their noses out of people private affairs. And to further prove my point, you'd be suprised to know, two American politicians I admire are Richard Nixon and Barry Goldwater along with a swathe of Democrats.

You're pretty close to where I stand.

[The Vorlon]

So- Gallup, along with any other company who had Bush ahead, got the election result wrong.

I guess it depends what you define as "wrong"

When I see a poll that says:

Bush 48
Gore 46

I go in my head..

"Race is well within the margin of error - we don't really know who is ahead, might be a late  night watching the returns"

A fundemenatlly correct discription of the race...

If some pollster calls a race say

Candidate X: 50
Candidate Y: 48

and it turns out to be

Candidate X: 49
Candidate Y: 50

I personally think the pollster did a heck of a good job.



And I am not biased even a tiny bit towards the hard working, underpaid (ok that part is a lie) abused, overworked, under appreciated, polsters of the world

[mddem2004]

Why don't everyone calm down and just say Gallup 'Laided an Egg'.......It Happens.....

Lets review the last week:
9/17 - Economist - Bush +1
9/16 - Pew - Bush +1
9/15 - Harris - Kerry +1
9/14 - Dem Corp - Bush +1
9/12 - IBD/Tipp/CSM - TIE
9/9   - Dem Corps - Bush +3
9/9   - Zogby - Bush +2
9/9   - Fox/OD - Bush +2

Gallup at Bush +13 or even half that is just a joke.....

[afleitch]

Exactly- but, having said that, people with politics like that in Britain put preference on different issues, and because of a different party structure their postitions seem strange to those in Europe and America. If I was alive and voting in the 1980s I would have happily voted Conservative and embraced Thatcherism, but today, Tony Blair and the Labour Party have taken on that mantle, coupled with a real drive for social justice (Though I have to say the Tories look a tad more electable today) I back John Kerry because he fits well with what I believe in. Bush has bloated the defecit and tried to interefere with the constituation and in people private lives. If Howard Dean was the Democratic candidate howver, then I would currently be sporting a blue avatar!

[??????????]

Exactly- but, having said that, people with politics like that in Britain put preference on different issues, and because of a different party structure their postitions seem strange to those in Europe and America. If I was alive and voting in the 1980s I would have happily voted Conservative and embraced Thatcherism, but today, Tony Blair and the Labour Party have taken on that mantle, coupled with a real drive for social justice (Though I have to say the Tories look a tad more electable today) I back John Kerry because he fits well with what I believe in. Bush has bloated the defecit and tried to interefere with the constituation and in people private lives. If Howard Dean was the Democratic candidate howver, then I would currently be sporting a blue avatar!

Every president since Lincoln has tried to destory or interfere with the constitution. Its just a sad slippery slope we are headed down because a centralized government believes they have the absolute right to govern however they see and if the state governments dont like that fact then "screw them".

[ATFFL]

Why don't everyone calm down and just say Gallup 'Laided an Egg'.......It Happens.....

Lets review the last week:
9/17 - Economist - Bush +1
9/16 - Pew - Bush +1
9/15 - Harris - Kerry +1
9/14 - Dem Corp - Bush +1
9/12 - IBD/Tipp/CSM - TIE
9/9   - Dem Corps - Bush +3
9/9   - Zogby - Bush +2
9/9   - Fox/OD - Bush +2

Gallup at Bush +13 or even half that is just a joke.....

You're missing a PEW poll on there.  The one where they had Bush up huge.

That is my problem with PEW.  They got a result they though was an outlier and sat on it.  They immediately did a repoll and got a result they liked more and released it.

The fact is we don't have a lot of good polls out there right now.  Most of them are Internet polls or polls by highly partisan firms.  On the other end of the spectrum we have Gallup who is reflecting the energized Republican base too much.

The truth lies somewhere in between.

[Sibboleth]

Due to repeated cock-up's in General Elections over here, Gallup's name is mud in the U.K (and bearing in mind the sorry state of pollsters over here that's a pretty impressive achievment).

As Gallup is only polling for the final poll (so to speak) I think I'll ignore anything they publish until the final week.
Mind you, as a rule I ignore National Polls anyways so...

[The Vorlon]

Why don't everyone calm down and just say Gallup 'Laided an Egg'.......It Happens.....

Lets review the last week:
9/17 - Economist - Bush +1
9/16 - Pew - Bush +1
9/15 - Harris - Kerry +1
9/14 - Dem Corp - Bush +1
9/12 - IBD/Tipp/CSM - TIE
9/9   - Dem Corps - Bush +3
9/9   - Zogby - Bush +2
9/9   - Fox/OD - Bush +2

Gallup at Bush +13 or even half that is just a joke.....

You presented a somewhat truncated list of polls:

Additions to list:

Rasmussen - Bush +4
ICR - Bush +8
New Democratic Network (D) Bush +4

FWIW

ABC News reports that the "spin" memos from the Dems say Bush is up 2%, while the GOP 'spin" memos say Bush is up 5%

I have posted qite a few times I think Bush is up 4ish % "real" and maybe a bit extra for some excitement froth.

The Gallup Likely voter model is behaving like, well, the Gallup Likely voter model...  it generates huge and artificial swings.

BTW, the two Pew Samples (Bush +16, Bush +1) actually do make sense.

The first Pew "wave" was +5 to the GOP side in partisan ID, while the second "wave" was waaaay to the Dem side - thisparty ID swing explains just about all the difference between the two "waves"

If you combine both samples from Pew, and reweight to 39/35/26 it comes out at Bush +3, which I think is darn close to the truth.

[afleitch]

Very true. The only poll in the UK that looks interesting is the Times/Populus. Even then you feel they are just dividing the pie unevenly. Too much for the Lib Dems and to much for the 'Others' I've no idea if Gallup even poll here now, or Harris for that matter after the 1992 fiasco. And you don't hear much from MORI these days.

[Sibboleth]

If you combine both samples from Pew, and reweight to 39/35/26 it comes out at Bush +3, which I think is darn close to the truth.

Bush leading by roughly 3pts *seems* about right...