Gallup's track record

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Gallup is maybe not a very good firm...

I don't know why Vorlon trusts Gallup more than others (as our friend John Zogby, who was better than Gallup for Iowa caucus)). Maybe than Vorlon is Frank Newport?

Gallup is not a good poll? Of course when you guys are down its not. But I must warn you that they have predicted every presidential election almost exactly with the exception of 1948.

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Shouldn't Gallup develop a system that actually tracks the election! If it is a system designed to predict the outcome about a week or so before the election, as Vorlon has said- fantastic. But why release polls using this methodology one and a half months before the election if they know it's not accurate? That applies to state polls too. In 2000, as Vorlon says, they were out by 1.82%- which- yes is a good call, but that is based on the final poll- which has Bush winning the PV, when we all know he lost. So- Gallup, along with any other company who had Bush ahead, got the election result wrong. Of course, it didnt matter when it came to the electoral college, Bush won, but Gallup was soley predicting the popular vote. If the Vorlon is correct in regards to Gallups methodology (which I think we can all be sure he is!) then im not trusting a single Gallup poll until much much later.

You just don't trust it because Bush is winning handily and you can't accept the fact that Americans are "stupid" enough to elect Bush again.

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Erm...no, States Rights, if you look through my earlier posts you will see that I state pretty clearly that Bush is still ahead by up to 2%. I don't believe he is 13 points ahead and there are up to a half dozen other polls that say the same. Secondly- where does this 'Americans are stupid' thing come from? I have American relative and I study American history and American politics at University and some of my political heroes are American. So I think that your hissy-fit post was a little uncalled for.

I know many brits and liberals..some on this board that feel America is stupid to re-elect Bush. I don't believe he is 13% ahead but I do believe its closer to 8-10% either way its unrecoverable. Bush wins with +300 Evs.

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This is pretty close to what will happen :

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I am not a liberal. I'm a Centrist who believes in small government and low taxation but also in keeping their noses out of people private affairs. And to further prove my point, you'd be suprised to know, two American politicians I admire are Richard Nixon and Barry Goldwater along with a swathe of Democrats.

You're pretty close to where I stand.

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Exactly- but, having said that, people with politics like that in Britain put preference on different issues, and because of a different party structure their postitions seem strange to those in Europe and America. If I was alive and voting in the 1980s I would have happily voted Conservative and embraced Thatcherism, but today, Tony Blair and the Labour Party have taken on that mantle, coupled with a real drive for social justice (Though I have to say the Tories look a tad more electable today) I back John Kerry because he fits well with what I believe in. Bush has bloated the defecit and tried to interefere with the constituation and in people private lives. If Howard Dean was the Democratic candidate howver, then I would currently be sporting a blue avatar!

Every president since Lincoln has tried to destory or interfere with the constitution. Its just a sad slippery slope we are headed down because a centralized government believes they have the absolute right to govern however they see and if the state governments dont like that fact then "screw them".