Gallup's track record

[afleitch]

Shouldn't Gallup develop a system that actually tracks the election! If it is a system designed to predict the outcome about a week or so before the election, as Vorlon has said- fantastic. But why release polls using this methodology one and a half months before the election if they know it's not accurate? That applies to state polls too. In 2000, as Vorlon says, they were out by 1.82%- which- yes is a good call, but that is based on the final poll- which has Bush winning the PV, when we all know he lost. So- Gallup, along with any other company who had Bush ahead, got the election result wrong. Of course, it didnt matter when it came to the electoral college, Bush won, but Gallup was soley predicting the popular vote. If the Vorlon is correct in regards to Gallups methodology (which I think we can all be sure he is!) then im not trusting a single Gallup poll until much much later.

[afleitch]

Erm...no, States Rights, if you look through my earlier posts you will see that I state pretty clearly that Bush is still ahead by up to 2%. I don't believe he is 13 points ahead and there are up to a half dozen other polls that say the same. Secondly- where does this 'Americans are stupid' thing come from? I have American relative and I study American history and American politics at University and some of my political heroes are American. So I think that your hissy-fit post was a little uncalled for.

[afleitch]

I am not a liberal. I'm a Centrist who believes in small government and low taxation but also in keeping their noses out of people private affairs. And to further prove my point, you'd be suprised to know, two American politicians I admire are Richard Nixon and Barry Goldwater along with a swathe of Democrats.

[afleitch]

Exactly- but, having said that, people with politics like that in Britain put preference on different issues, and because of a different party structure their postitions seem strange to those in Europe and America. If I was alive and voting in the 1980s I would have happily voted Conservative and embraced Thatcherism, but today, Tony Blair and the Labour Party have taken on that mantle, coupled with a real drive for social justice (Though I have to say the Tories look a tad more electable today) I back John Kerry because he fits well with what I believe in. Bush has bloated the defecit and tried to interefere with the constituation and in people private lives. If Howard Dean was the Democratic candidate howver, then I would currently be sporting a blue avatar!

[afleitch]

Very true. The only poll in the UK that looks interesting is the Times/Populus. Even then you feel they are just dividing the pie unevenly. Too much for the Lib Dems and to much for the 'Others' I've no idea if Gallup even poll here now, or Harris for that matter after the 1992 fiasco. And you don't hear much from MORI these days.