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| | | |-+  SC-01, NC-10, IN-09, MO-09, NJ-05, SC-02 - R2k/SUSA (good for GOP)		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: SC-01, NC-10, IN-09, MO-09, NJ-05, SC-02 - R2k/SUSA (good for GOP)  (Read 2435 times)
Lunar
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« on: October 25, 2008, 05:15:17 pm »
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NJ - 05:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/24/134416/70/712/641025
Garrett (R) 47%, Shulman (D) 40%

MO-09:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/24/165055/85/501/641228
Luetkemeyer (R) 47%, Baker (D) 42%

IN-09:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6569356f-c1ed-4de5-a910-204d8ecb4e2d
Hill (D) 54%, Sodrel (R) 39%

NC-10:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/25/132949/13/752/641986
McHenry (R) 52%, Johnson (D) 37%

SC-01
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/25/14186/494/711/642035
Brown (R) 48%, Ketner (D) 37%



Update:

SC-02
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/25/16215/493/638/642124
Wilson (R) 47%, Miller (D) 35%
« Last Edit: October 25, 2008, 06:10:41 pm by Lunar »Logged
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2008, 06:04:27 pm »
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I didn't think South Carolina was going to elect a lesbian.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2008, 06:07:42 pm »
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Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on October 25, 2008, 06:04:27 pm
I didn't think South Carolina was going to elect a lesbian.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25677373/
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2008, 06:10:54 pm »
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Why on earth did they poll what is, historically, the most Republican part of NC [qm]

(of course, things would be very different there if the great textile strike hadn't failed in the awful way that it did. But it did, so it isn't).
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Lunar
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2008, 06:11:12 pm »
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Update:

SC-02
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/25/16215/493/638/642124
Wilson (R) 47%, Miller (D) 35%
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2008, 06:22:50 pm »
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Quote from: Sibboleth on October 25, 2008, 06:10:54 pm
Why on earth did they poll what is, historically, the most Republican part of NC [qm]

(of course, things would be very different there if the great textile strike hadn't failed in the awful way that it did. But it did, so it isn't).

The DKos crowd really, really wants to get rid of Patrick McHenry so they've hyped his challenger.
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Verily
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2008, 06:26:11 pm »
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NJ-05 is surprisingly close, actually, caveat for district polls.
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2008, 06:30:50 pm »
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Brown is running much closer to Ketner than I thought. We'll still reelect him, but this is the closest election he's ever been in. I'm surprised Ketner is doing so well. The SC coast is getting awfully progressive. Wink
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I call that getting swindled and pimped
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2008, 06:57:08 pm »
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I wish someone would poll TX-10 for me. Sad
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Fmr. Emperor PiT
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2008, 07:03:33 pm »
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     Not surprising, really.
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r(x,y) != <-y,x>

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=103836.0
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2008, 03:06:12 am »
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Quote from: Verily on October 25, 2008, 06:26:11 pm
NJ-05 is surprisingly close, actually, caveat for district polls.

Like I said in another thread, seven points is almost exactly where I believe that race to be.
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2008, 03:09:00 am »
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Considering the Republican candidate in that race is throwing out some of the harshest ads of 2008, it's not surprising that R2K/Kos would find him in single-digits.  Kind of the opposite of surprising actually!
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2008, 04:37:18 am »
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Good for GOP? They're either doing about as good as I would have expected, or worse, in these polls.
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2008, 04:41:32 am »
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Quote from: old man, grinding axes on October 26, 2008, 04:37:18 am
Good for GOP? They're either doing about as good as I would have expected, or worse, in these polls.

Well, the pollster has a Democratic bias (R2K for all but one) and the Democrats are losing in 5 of the 6 districts outside of MoE.
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2008, 05:09:16 am »
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Quote from: Lunar on October 26, 2008, 04:41:32 am
Quote from: old man, grinding axes on October 26, 2008, 04:37:18 am
Good for GOP? They're either doing about as good as I would have expected, or worse, in these polls.

Well, the pollster has a Democratic bias (R2K for all but one)
Okay.
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and the Democrats are losing in 5 of the 6 districts outside of MoE.
...4 out of 6 actually. As they should be expected to. All of these (4) are what, at primary filing time, seemed to be joke opponents in utterly safe seats.
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Quote from: True Federalist on April 28, 2013, 01:25:07 am
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Lunar
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2008, 05:13:07 am »
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Four out of six?  I counted ten times and I still get five.

Yarr, it's good news for the GOP insofar as it means that none of these candidates have crossed into the MoE.  It could be marginally bad news relative to expected numbers, but it's good news that these five (four?) will likely hold their seats.
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2008, 06:43:50 am »
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Quote from: Lunar on October 25, 2008, 05:15:17 pm
NJ - 05:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/24/134416/70/712/641025
Garrett (R) 47%, Shulman (D) 40%

NC-10:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/25/132949/13/752/641986
McHenry (R) 52%, Johnson (D) 37%

SC-01
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/25/14186/494/711/642035
Brown (R) 48%, Ketner (D) 37%

SC-02
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/25/16215/493/638/642124
Wilson (R) 47%, Miller (D) 35%


That's four to me. Possibly three actually, if that MoE is to be applied to every candidate singly (not sure right now).
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Lunar
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2008, 08:58:02 am »
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Ok fine, you win, MO-09 is on the border of the MoE.  Cool.
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2008, 09:03:09 am »
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I don't think anyone ever thought that NJ-5 wouldn't be pretty close, it always is.  NJ-5 is like PA-6 but with 10 points.  It always seems like Garrett may be in a tough fight, but he always wins by around 10
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2008, 11:28:54 am »
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Quote from: Sen. DWTL on October 26, 2008, 09:03:09 am
I don't think anyone ever thought that NJ-5 wouldn't be pretty close, it always is.  NJ-5 is like PA-6 but with 10 points.  It always seems like Garrett may be in a tough fight, but he always wins by around 10.
Partisan heaven. Easy for Dems to get to 45, very hard to get beyond.
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2008, 06:17:45 pm »
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Even if Jesus ran as a Democrat in NC-10 he would likely lose.  Same with SC-01 and SC-02. 
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Lunar
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2008, 06:23:27 pm »
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Quote from: Mr.Phips on October 26, 2008, 06:17:45 pm
Even if Jesus ran as a Democrat in NC-10 he would likely lose.  Same with SC-01 and SC-02. 

That's stupid, everyone knows Jesus is a Libertarian
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