On a whole, do Murtha's comments slightly help or shurt Obama in Western PA?

[Lunar]

Honest question, I sincerely believe "help" and think there's an outside chance that Murtha might be trying to help Obama by saying things like this.  Remember when he insulted McCain by saying he was too old to be president (Murtha's older)?   I draw an exact parallel but I feel like I'm the only person the world to think this, am I a nut?  Set me straight.

Murtha's not in danger and is there any white guy that is going to vote for McCain to prove that he's not racist?  Murtha's been a politician long enough that these things shouldn't come out 24/7 like they have been this cycle.

[Eraserhead]

No impact at all

[Lunar]

No impact at all

Not one vote?  A candidate sneezing awkwardly would be a loss of like five hundred votes.

[Eraserhead]

No impact at all

Not one vote?  A candidate sneezing awkwardly would be a loss of like five hundred votes.

I don't think so. That actually sounds like something JJ might say, oddly enough.

[Lunar]

No impact at all

Not one vote?  A candidate sneezing awkwardly would be a loss of like five hundred votes.

I don't think so. That actually sounds like something JJ might say, oddly enough.

Well, it would have to be REALLY awkward, I may have been teasing.  J.J. is ridiculous in his vote-loss claims, but I'm trying to identify how crazy I am that I think Murtha's comments have a good chance of being intentional.  I know he might not have initially thought he was being recorded, but he publicly doubled down on it with the "redneck" comment.

Murtha's an old guy in a safe district who doesn't have to deal with the ramifications of what he says much longer and he knows it, why not privately tell groups of people things that might make them tell their friends not to vote on race?  I mean, he clearly did almost an identical thing during the primaries with his "Both John McCain and I are both too old to be president" comments.

[MR maverick]

They might help.

These voters might feel they have to prove Murtha wrong.

Just maybe.

[Lunar]

No impact at all

Also, I have an additional question for you.

If these comments have no effect whatsoever, and they dominate local Western Pennsylvanian news cycles for a day or two, isn't that a win for Obama?  The more the local news stations are talking about things that have "no impact at all" the better Obama's position is, no?

[minionofmidas]

There *may*, and I do stress *may*, be a mood, among some people, that yeah, okay, they get it, they have to vote for the n*****r, they will vote for the n*****r, but they're not really happy about it and they'll take it out on Murtha, Kanjorski etc.
The archetypal such voter presumably voted for Bill Clinton in 96 and for George Bush in 04, but for Democrats on most downballot races. And for the Hilldog in the primary, obviously.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There *may*, and I do stress *may*, be a mood, among some people, that yeah, okay, they get it, they have to vote for the n*****r, they will vote for the n*****r, but they're not really happy about it and they'll take it out on Murtha, Kanjorski etc.
The archetypal such voter presumably voted for Bill Clinton in 96 and for George Bush in 04, but for Democrats on most downballot races. And for the Hilldog in the primary, obviously.

^^^

[J. J.]

Murtha gives voice to what is being said privately.  It probably helps McCain.

[TheGlobalizer]

Dangerous for Obama.  Maybe no effect, maybe hurts.

[TomC]

Couple it with the false attack and I think it nets Obama a tiny bit.

[Lunar]

Dangerous for Obama.  Maybe no effect, maybe hurts.

How?  What person would switch their vote to McCain after hearing that?

[TheGlobalizer]

Dangerous for Obama.  Maybe no effect, maybe hurts.

How?  What person would switch their vote to McCain after hearing that?

It is OK for rednecks to call themselves 'rednecks'; it's not OK for politicians to call them rednecks.

Obama's WPA vote is probably on economic issues, so it's foolish for Murtha to reraise social issues now.

The first post-comments poll in WPA showed Murtha's own polling margin evaporating.  Lesser effect on Obama, but it could carry over as 'liberal Democratic elitism', something Obama is vulnerable to.

[nclib]

Interestingly enough, PA-12 appears to be the only Kerry district to vote for McCain.

[Lunar]

Hah, that might not be relevant though.  We still don't know what it would be (better or worse for Obama) should Murtha & the media not started talking about Western PA's supposed racism.