Will McCain win Ohio?
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  Will McCain win Ohio?
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Question: Will McCain win Ohio?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: Will McCain win Ohio?  (Read 1932 times)
Reaganfan
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« on: October 26, 2008, 04:59:24 AM »

What will be the total vote?

I'm guessing:

McCain: 50%
Obama: 49%
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Lunar
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2008, 05:03:12 AM »

Ohio will be a good test to see if Obama's ground game can compete in historical swing states (it's obviously dominating in growth areas of the country).

I have no idea.  House odds should favor McCain since the state has been running about ~4% more favorable towards him than the national tracker, but Obama's organization mind dominate.

I tend to agree with the Obama sources that claim FL is better for them than OH.
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opebo
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2008, 05:09:27 AM »

Yes, of course.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2008, 05:13:12 AM »


Because of racism?
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2008, 05:26:52 AM »

I know yard signs are no exact signal of how an election will go over...but 4 years ago their were NO Bush signs...and now...except for the area right near Cleveland...McCain/Palin signs are stuck in every yard, lining roads, ect.

I'm not saying Obama won't win Ohio...but these polls that show him up by 10-12 pts are bunk. If anything, I expect McCain to be tied or slightly up, which is what reliable posters like Rasmussen, Strategic Vision and Mason-Dixon show.
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opebo
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2008, 05:27:53 AM »


Yes, of course!
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Ty440
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2008, 06:23:32 AM »

I know yard signs are no exact signal of how an election will go over...but 4 years ago their were NO Bush signs...and now...except for the area right near Cleveland...McCain/Palin signs are stuck in every yard, lining roads, ect.

Same in my area Lake County. I get tickled when I'm driving to work or , Just running errands and I see Mccain leading in yard signs about 4-1, and then I see some poll saying Obama is up by 7 or 8 points in Ohio it makes me confident that his poll numbers are proably inflated. Even a big time Obama supporter at work noticed she asked who I thought was going to win the election and I said proably Obama and she said she was worried because all she saw was Mccain/Palin signs.

My area votes with the statewide winner 99% of the time. I'm 98% certain based upon what I see and hear Mccain will carry Ohio.


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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2008, 06:42:35 AM »

Like Nixon, the silent majority favors Obama.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2008, 10:33:45 AM »

McCain by about 3.
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Moooooo
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2008, 10:36:24 AM »

Yes.... one of the only swing states I'm fairly confident in
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2008, 11:31:29 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2008, 11:39:51 AM by Torie »

McCain will need to get to within at least 4% of Obama nationally to carry Ohio, and maybe slice it down to 2%. I don't think either will happen.  I would be very surprised if Obama's margin nationally is less than 6%. Ohio had a .5% Dem bias in 2004 by the way. Suggesting it will move to more than a 4% GOP bias this time is just a bit too rich. The state just doesn't have that many "bitters," and as I said, the black turnout will be huge.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2008, 11:33:28 AM »

No.  I see Obama winning, around 51-48.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2008, 11:36:27 AM »

Depends on the extent to which Ohioans have a masochistic desire to embrace four more years of the failed same or not Wink

Dave

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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2008, 01:36:04 PM »

My prediction:

OHIO PRESIDENT -
50% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain
  2% Others


Probably the same margin as Virginia.
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opebo
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2008, 01:41:15 PM »

Depends on the extent to which Ohioans have a masochistic desire to embrace four more years of the failed same or not Wink

Dave

Dave, I'm afraid they'd rather embrace that than a black.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2008, 01:42:30 PM »

Not unless McCain can cut Obama's 8-point lead down to 3 or 4 in the next 9 days.
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Politico
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2008, 01:43:03 PM »

The quantity of yard signs, campaign signs spread throughout rural counties, can be very misleading. I was working in NH four years ago, and was convinced based upon the overwhelming advantage in signage, canvassing supporters, etc. that Kerry would easily win the state. As we now know, it was a real squeaker.
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Alcon
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2008, 01:46:57 PM »

The quantity of yard signs, campaign signs spread throughout rural counties, can be very misleading. I was working in NH four years ago, and was convinced based upon the overwhelming advantage in signage, canvassing supporters, etc. that Kerry would easily win the state. As we now know, it was a real squeaker.

(Generally) agreed.

Yesterday, I saw ~150 yard signs in total in Seattle, and am now willing to predict that John McCain will receive a crushing defeat at the hands of Ralph Nader and Socialist Workers candidate Roger Calero.

Yard signs = not a representative sample
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Sbane
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2008, 01:48:37 PM »

The quantity of yard signs, campaign signs spread throughout rural counties, can be very misleading. I was working in NH four years ago, and was convinced based upon the overwhelming advantage in signage, canvassing supporters, etc. that Kerry would easily win the state. As we now know, it was a real squeaker.

(Generally) agreed.

Yesterday, I saw ~150 yard signs in total in Seattle, and am now willing to predict that John McCain will receive a crushing defeat at the hands of Ralph Nader and Socialist Workers candidate Roger Calero.

Yard signs = not a representative sample

Haha yeah...based on yard signs I can safely predict that John Campbell is about to get crushed by Steve young in the 48th CD. Roll Eyes
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opebo
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2008, 01:50:19 PM »

Not unless McCain can cut Obama's 8-point lead down to 3 or 4 in the next 9 days.

He will close, certainly, but that 'eight point lead' is really only maybe 3-5 anyway, due to the Bradley Effect.
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LanceMcSteel
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2008, 01:55:22 PM »

Ohio was D+.5 in 2004, so Kerry would have won it in a 50-50 national race. Ohio has been really stubborn this cycle due to profound racism in its Appalachian areas. But Obama winning nationally by 7 points (as he will do) and losing Ohio is simply impossible. Obama 52-47.

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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2008, 01:56:30 PM »

Not unless McCain can cut Obama's 8-point lead down to 3 or 4 in the next 9 days.

He will close, certainly, but that 'eight point lead' is really only maybe 3-5 anyway, due to the Bradley Effect.
Doesn't exist.
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Torie
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2008, 01:58:12 PM »

The quantity of yard signs, campaign signs spread throughout rural counties, can be very misleading. I was working in NH four years ago, and was convinced based upon the overwhelming advantage in signage, canvassing supporters, etc. that Kerry would easily win the state. As we now know, it was a real squeaker.

(Generally) agreed.

Yesterday, I saw ~150 yard signs in total in Seattle, and am now willing to predict that John McCain will receive a crushing defeat at the hands of Ralph Nader and Socialist Workers candidate Roger Calero.

Yard signs = not a representative sample

Haha yeah...based on yard signs I can safely predict that John Campbell is about to get crushed by Steve young in the 48th CD. Roll Eyes

Frightening thought to contemplate being represented by a third rate hack tort lawyer! Oh the horror, the horror!
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2008, 02:25:41 PM »

The quantity of yard signs, campaign signs spread throughout rural counties, can be very misleading. I was working in NH four years ago, and was convinced based upon the overwhelming advantage in signage, canvassing supporters, etc. that Kerry would easily win the state. As we now know, it was a real squeaker.

(Generally) agreed.

Yesterday, I saw ~150 yard signs in total in Seattle, and am now willing to predict that John McCain will receive a crushing defeat at the hands of Ralph Nader and Socialist Workers candidate Roger Calero.

Yard signs = not a representative sample

Haha yeah...based on yard signs I can safely predict that John Campbell is about to get crushed by Steve young in the 48th CD. Roll Eyes

Frightening thought to contemplate being represented by a third rate hack tort lawyer! Oh the horror, the horror!

Hahaha and here I was thinking you would want another lawyer in congress. CPA's are overrated anyways. He is coming to my class in a few days, so I will see what he is about.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2008, 02:30:22 PM »

What will be the total vote?

I'm guessing:

McCain: 50%
Obama: 49%


They have a word for that... delusional.  When the discussion turns to whether or not McCain can win North Carolina, its time to stop talking about Ohio.
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