Will McCain win Ohio?

[Torie]

McCain will need to get to within at least 4% of Obama nationally to carry Ohio, and maybe slice it down to 2%. I don't think either will happen.  I would be very surprised if Obama's margin nationally is less than 6%. Ohio had a .5% Dem bias in 2004 by the way. Suggesting it will move to more than a 4% GOP bias this time is just a bit too rich. The state just doesn't have that many "bitters," and as I said, the black turnout will be huge.

[Torie]

The quantity of yard signs, campaign signs spread throughout rural counties, can be very misleading. I was working in NH four years ago, and was convinced based upon the overwhelming advantage in signage, canvassing supporters, etc. that Kerry would easily win the state. As we now know, it was a real squeaker.

(Generally) agreed.

Yesterday, I saw ~150 yard signs in total in Seattle, and am now willing to predict that John McCain will receive a crushing defeat at the hands of Ralph Nader and Socialist Workers candidate Roger Calero.

Yard signs = not a representative sample

Haha yeah...based on yard signs I can safely predict that John Campbell is about to get crushed by Steve young in the 48th CD.

Frightening thought to contemplate being represented by a third rate hack tort lawyer! Oh the horror, the horror!

[Torie]

Campbell is more than just a CPA. He was a business owner, of a used car lot. He is actually a lot smarter and substantive than I thought he would be. But he is no rocket scientist, and does not have well, a creative mind. In short, he ain't a Torie.  But he is a hard worker, and not a red meat type. He voted pro gay on some measure in Congress, one of about 40 Pubbies to do so, but then Laguna Beach is in his district. He didn't demagogue on the bailout bill, even though he hardly was one who could elucidate the pros and cons with any gravitas, but then few others could either.