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Author Topic: Israel 2009  (Read 33078 times)
PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« on: October 26, 2008, 08:30:21 am »

It seems like Tzipi Livni has failed to form a government, with the Shas refusing to work with Kadima. Seems like elections in February.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031253.html
« Last Edit: December 24, 2008, 04:40:52 pm by Kentoc'h mervel eget saotr »Logged

PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2008, 09:07:40 am »

Random poll I found (change from 2006)

Likud 29 (+17)
Kadima 25 (-4)
Labor 14 (-5)
Yisrael Beiteinu 12 (+1)
Shas 9 (-3)
NU-NRP 8 (-1)
UTJ 5 (-1)
Yachad 4 (-1)
Social Justice 2 (new)
Greenies 2 (+2)
Gil 0 (-7)
"Arab Parties" 10 (0)
« Last Edit: October 26, 2008, 09:14:00 am by 44=BZH »Logged

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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2008, 09:08:50 am »
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Random poll I found

Likud 29
Kadima 25
Labor 14

OMG
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Хahar
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2008, 11:41:19 am »
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Crap.

On second thought, a Likud government might actually be a good thing. But the Israeli electoral system still sucks.
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2008, 11:45:03 am »
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I like Bibi, so a Likud government wouldn't be all that bad.
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2008, 06:08:02 pm »
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Today's Haaretz cites a poll from Dahaf Research (no clue what they are). In brackets change from the current Knesset

Kadima 29 (nil)
Likud 26 (+14)
Labor 11 (-8)

They also cite TNS Teleseker for almost the same results:

Kadima 31 (+2)
Likud 29 (+17)
Labor 11 (-8)

I shall try to find the details

Update: Jpost confirms these. Dahaf has a sample of 500 voters, TNS of 900 voters.  But neither paper has the full breakdown
« Last Edit: October 27, 2008, 06:11:35 pm by ag »Logged

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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2008, 06:20:52 pm »
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Ok, here is the full Dahaf breakdown:

Kadima 29 (nil)
Likud 26 (+14)
Labor 11 (-8)
Shas 11 (-1)
Yisrael Beiteinu 9 (-2)
NU-NRP 7 (-2)
UTJ 7 (+1)
Meretz 6 (+1)
Greens 2 (+2)
Gil 2 (-5)
"Arab Parties" 10 (nil)

If this were to happen, religious parties would be key, as neither of the two likely secular parings would work. Likud + YB = 35. Kadima+Labor=40. It could also be some sort of a grand coalition, as Kadma+Likud would have 55 seats, only 6 short of a majority, and could form the gov't w/ any one of YB (likely unacceptable to Kadima), Shas, NU-NRP,UTJ or Meretz (won't work w/ Likud, though).
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2008, 06:32:46 pm »
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And here is TNS

Kadima 31 (+2)
Likud 29 (+17)
Labor 11 (-8)
Yisrael Beiteinu 11 (nil)
Shas 8 (-4)
NU-NRP 7 (-2)
Meretz 5 (nil)
UTJ 4 (-2)
Green 3 (+3)
Gil 0 (-7)
"Arab Parties" 11 (+1)

Broadly consistent, with the other one, except that it shows the two large parties slightly stronger and the religious parties somewhat weaker. If this one holds, Shas were the true idiots.

BTW, if this one happens, Kadima+Labor+Meretz+Green+Arabs would have a majority. Of course, they'd never form such a coalition, but that would mean that no reasonable coalition at all would be possible without Kadima.
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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2008, 06:41:15 pm »

Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2008, 07:06:25 pm »
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Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Anyway, good to see Kadima in the lead, if only narrowly. Hopefully the disaster of Netanyahu will be averted.
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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2008, 07:12:04 pm »

Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Yes, I know. But all other pollsters seem to have 10 seats for the Arabs. Do they not count those seats and allocate a set number in each poll?
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2008, 08:13:23 pm »
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Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Yes, I know. But all other pollsters seem to have 10 seats for the Arabs. Do they not count those seats and allocate a set number in each poll?

I am sure they truly poll. It's simply that the "Arab party" electorate is rather well-defined. Still, the exact numbers and the distribution across parties might affect how many "Arab party seats" there will be, and a single seat is well within the margin of error.

BTW, "Arab party" designation is not fully right. One of the "Arab parties" is a coalition including the Communists. Normally (though, I am not sure if that was the case last time) one of the "Arab party" MKs is a Jew (for a while it was Tamar Gozanski, later Dov Chenin). A better designation would be "Arab and bi-communal parties": but it wouldn't be PC in Israel Smiley
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2008, 07:53:35 pm »
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Just something to note for the unwary, Gil apparently underpolls ridiculously; they were below the threshold in most of the polls prior to 2006 and won 7 seats.
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2008, 12:11:09 pm »
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Go likud!
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Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2008, 10:09:42 am »
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Go Arab Parties!

Idk much but given Constine's support Likud must be awful
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2008, 10:16:46 am »

Go Arab Parties!

Even Hadash?
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2008, 10:26:18 am »
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Idk much but given Constine's support Likud must be awful

I'm still a Kadima guy, but I also like Bibi.
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2008, 10:33:38 am »
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Idk who they are, but if they are Arab Parties in Israel then yes
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2008, 10:36:17 am »

Idk who they are, but if they are Arab Parties in Israel then yes

Commies.
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2008, 01:12:16 pm »
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Idk who they are, but if they are Arab Parties in Israel then yes

Well, they are usually lumped up w/ Arab parties, but they are, actually, Commies ( strictly speaking, a coalition including the Commies proper). They have a non-negligible Jewish vote (that is, non-negligible as a proportion of their vote) and sometimes elect Jewish MKs. The Israeli political spectrum can be divided into Zionist parties (everyone from Meretz to Yisrael Beiteinu), non-Zionist religious parties (say, Shas), and non-Zionist parties, which are usually called Arab parties. But Hadash is, actually, non-Zionist bi-communal.
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Хahar
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2008, 02:11:49 pm »
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I like الجبهه الدمقراطية للسلام والمساواة.
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2008, 06:01:13 am »
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the elections will be on the 10th of February and it will be the First elections I can vote in.
Anyway i'm leaning likud rught now (but might change).
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Thomas216
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2008, 10:56:47 am »
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Just something to note for the unwary, Gil apparently underpolls ridiculously; they were below the threshold in most of the polls prior to 2006 and won 7 seats.
Gil was underpolled in 2006 but chances are that the party will vanish in 2009, it's a fringe party that had no influence since 2006 though it might (unlikely) get up to 5 seats.
The Greens is unlikely to get above the threshold and Social-Justice also unlikely (though more likely then the Greens).

The Arab parties will get about 9-11 seats and will stay in the opposition just like they did in very Knesset I believe since they were founded, the competition then will be between Livny and Bibi, or the Likud and Kadima.
I believe Bibi will take it and I'll probably vote for him (or maybe for the National Union) though I am proud of having a woman as a major candidate, it's just that Livny is unqualified and too to the far-left as far as I'm concerned.
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danny
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2008, 12:41:17 pm »
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I can't prove it, but I don't think Gil really underpolled. I think it was more a case of people that didn't like any party that made up their minds in the last minute.

The latest poll i saw on TV showed Likud and Kadima tied at 31 with Yisrael beitenu at 11 and labor and shas with 10 (lol at labor).
« Last Edit: November 02, 2008, 12:45:45 pm by danny »Logged

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« Reply #24 on: November 20, 2008, 12:32:48 pm »
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Good news for me, a new poll shows Likud gaining:

Likud: 32
Kadima: 26
Shas: 11
"arab parties": 11
Yisrael beitenu(Lieberman): 9
Labor: 8 (lol Baraks pathetic)
Meretz: 7
UTJ: 7
The Jewish home (replaces Nrp-Nru): 6
Greens: 3

link: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3625850,00.html
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