Israel 2009

[Hashemite]

It seems like Tzipi Livni has failed to form a government, with the Shas refusing to work with Kadima. Seems like elections in February.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031253.html

[Hashemite]

Random poll I found (change from 2006)

Likud 29 (+17)
Kadima 25 (-4)
Labor 14 (-5)
Yisrael Beiteinu 12 (+1)
Shas 9 (-3)
NU-NRP 8 (-1)
UTJ 5 (-1)
Yachad 4 (-1)
Social Justice 2 (new)
Greenies 2 (+2)
Gil 0 (-7)
"Arab Parties" 10 (0)

[Old Europe]

Random poll I found

Likud 29
Kadima 25
Labor 14

OMG

[Χahar]

Crap.

On second thought, a Likud government might actually be a good thing. But the Israeli electoral system still sucks.

[Senator Ben]

I like Bibi, so a Likud government wouldn't be all that bad.

[ag]

Today's Haaretz cites a poll from Dahaf Research (no clue what they are). In brackets change from the current Knesset

Kadima 29 (nil)
Likud 26 (+14)
Labor 11 (-8)

They also cite TNS Teleseker for almost the same results:

Kadima 31 (+2)
Likud 29 (+17)
Labor 11 (-8)

I shall try to find the details

Update: Jpost confirms these. Dahaf has a sample of 500 voters, TNS of 900 voters.  But neither paper has the full breakdown

[ag]

Ok, here is the full Dahaf breakdown:

Kadima 29 (nil)
Likud 26 (+14)
Labor 11 (-8)
Shas 11 (-1)
Yisrael Beiteinu 9 (-2)
NU-NRP 7 (-2)
UTJ 7 (+1)
Meretz 6 (+1)
Greens 2 (+2)
Gil 2 (-5)
"Arab Parties" 10 (nil)

If this were to happen, religious parties would be key, as neither of the two likely secular parings would work. Likud + YB = 35. Kadima+Labor=40. It could also be some sort of a grand coalition, as Kadma+Likud would have 55 seats, only 6 short of a majority, and could form the gov't w/ any one of YB (likely unacceptable to Kadima), Shas, NU-NRP,UTJ or Meretz (won't work w/ Likud, though).

[ag]

And here is TNS

Kadima 31 (+2)
Likud 29 (+17)
Labor 11 (-8)
Yisrael Beiteinu 11 (nil)
Shas 8 (-4)
NU-NRP 7 (-2)
Meretz 5 (nil)
UTJ 4 (-2)
Green 3 (+3)
Gil 0 (-7)
"Arab Parties" 11 (+1)

Broadly consistent, with the other one, except that it shows the two large parties slightly stronger and the religious parties somewhat weaker. If this one holds, Shas were the true idiots.

BTW, if this one happens, Kadima+Labor+Meretz+Green+Arabs would have a majority. Of course, they'd never form such a coalition, but that would mean that no reasonable coalition at all would be possible without Kadima.

[Hashemite]

Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

[Verily]

Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Anyway, good to see Kadima in the lead, if only narrowly. Hopefully the disaster of Netanyahu will be averted.

[Hashemite]

Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Yes, I know. But all other pollsters seem to have 10 seats for the Arabs. Do they not count those seats and allocate a set number in each poll?

[ag]

Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Yes, I know. But all other pollsters seem to have 10 seats for the Arabs. Do they not count those seats and allocate a set number in each poll?

I am sure they truly poll. It's simply that the "Arab party" electorate is rather well-defined. Still, the exact numbers and the distribution across parties might affect how many "Arab party seats" there will be, and a single seat is well within the margin of error.

BTW, "Arab party" designation is not fully right. One of the "Arab parties" is a coalition including the Communists. Normally (though, I am not sure if that was the case last time) one of the "Arab party" MKs is a Jew (for a while it was Tamar Gozanski, later Dov Chenin). A better designation would be "Arab and bi-communal parties": but it wouldn't be PC in Israel

[Verily]

Just something to note for the unwary, Gil apparently underpolls ridiculously; they were below the threshold in most of the polls prior to 2006 and won 7 seats.

[Umengus]

Go likud!

[DownWithTheLeft]

Go Arab Parties!

Idk much but given Constine's support Likud must be awful

[Hashemite]

Go Arab Parties!

Even Hadash?

[Senator Ben]

Idk much but given Constine's support Likud must be awful

I'm still a Kadima guy, but I also like Bibi.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Go Arab Parties!

Even Hadash?

Idk who they are, but if they are Arab Parties in Israel then yes

[Hashemite]

Go Arab Parties!

Even Hadash?

Idk who they are, but if they are Arab Parties in Israel then yes

Commies.

[ag]

Go Arab Parties!

Even Hadash?

Idk who they are, but if they are Arab Parties in Israel then yes

Well, they are usually lumped up w/ Arab parties, but they are, actually, Commies ( strictly speaking, a coalition including the Commies proper). They have a non-negligible Jewish vote (that is, non-negligible as a proportion of their vote) and sometimes elect Jewish MKs. The Israeli political spectrum can be divided into Zionist parties (everyone from Meretz to Yisrael Beiteinu), non-Zionist religious parties (say, Shas), and non-Zionist parties, which are usually called Arab parties. But Hadash is, actually, non-Zionist bi-communal.

[Χahar]

I like الجبهه الدمقراطية للسلام والمساواة.

[danny]

the elections will be on the 10th of February and it will be the First elections I can vote in.
Anyway i'm leaning likud rught now (but might change).

[Thomas216]

Just something to note for the unwary, Gil apparently underpolls ridiculously; they were below the threshold in most of the polls prior to 2006 and won 7 seats.

Gil was underpolled in 2006 but chances are that the party will vanish in 2009, it's a fringe party that had no influence since 2006 though it might (unlikely) get up to 5 seats.
The Greens is unlikely to get above the threshold and Social-Justice also unlikely (though more likely then the Greens).

The Arab parties will get about 9-11 seats and will stay in the opposition just like they did in very Knesset I believe since they were founded, the competition then will be between Livny and Bibi, or the Likud and Kadima.
I believe Bibi will take it and I'll probably vote for him (or maybe for the National Union) though I am proud of having a woman as a major candidate, it's just that Livny is unqualified and too to the far-left as far as I'm concerned.

[danny]

I can't prove it, but I don't think Gil really underpolled. I think it was more a case of people that didn't like any party that made up their minds in the last minute.

The latest poll i saw on TV showed Likud and Kadima tied at 31 with Yisrael beitenu at 11 and labor and shas with 10 (lol at labor).

[danny]

Good news for me, a new poll shows Likud gaining:

Likud: 32
Kadima: 26
Shas: 11
"arab parties": 11
Yisrael beitenu(Lieberman): 9
Labor: 8 (lol Baraks pathetic)
Meretz: 7
UTJ: 7
The Jewish home (replaces Nrp-Nru): 6
Greens: 3

link: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3625850,00.html