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Author Topic: Israel 2009  (Read 33119 times)
Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #150 on: February 04, 2009, 04:16:13 pm »
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What is Lieberman under investigation for?

Taking bribes.
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ag
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« Reply #151 on: February 04, 2009, 10:51:42 pm »
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Another thing. Why are the Arabs polling at only 8 seats (4 Ta'al, 4 Hadesh, 0 Balad) according to the newest poll (and some other recent older polls)?

This may be why:

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1061723.html

If this indeed catches on, it would be very bad. Bad short-term (an even screwier Knesset this time), bad long-term (if Arabs decide their citizenship isn't worth much, it would be very dangerous).
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Yamor
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« Reply #152 on: February 05, 2009, 11:54:07 am »
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Latest poll (Yisrael Hayom):

Likud - 30
Kadima - 24
Yisroel Beiteinu - 17
Labor - 16
Shas - 9
Meretz - 6
UTJ - 5
Hadash - 5
UAL - 3
NU - 3
Bayit Yehudi - 2

That would mean the right would have 66 seats, compared to 54 for the left.

Turnout looks like being quite high, with 58% saying they'll definitely vote, and 34% unsure, compared to a turnout of 62% last time.
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« Reply #153 on: February 05, 2009, 08:08:24 pm »
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What is the most likely coalition for the next Knesset?  Are there any possible surprises?
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« Reply #154 on: February 06, 2009, 12:11:09 am »
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It's extremely difficult to predict. It will be very difficult for Likud to make a coalition with only rightist factions, since the ultra-orthodox parties are unlikely to join a government with Yisrael Beiteinu, and excluding either one wouldn't leave you with a majority. Who from outside the right is most likely to join? I'd say Labor are most likely, but you never know.
In the unlikely scenario that Kadima win the elections (or at least get asked by the President to form a government) then they'd almost certainly aim to include Labor, and then reach a majority with the ultra-orthodox parties.
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danny
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« Reply #155 on: February 06, 2009, 05:53:59 am »
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Considering the fighting between Livni and Shas and Kadimas anti Shas campaign, a Kadima led coalition would probably be Kadima-Labor-Likud-Yisrael Beitenu. A Likud victory will be more complicated with Yisrael Beitenu and Shas almost cetainly and a possibility of Labor, Kadima (or a breakaway faction from within), UTJ, NU and Jewish Home. Bibi will try to avoid an entirely right wing coalition.
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« Reply #156 on: February 06, 2009, 06:08:58 am »
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There's a very good interactive map on ynet with the 2003 and 2006 results for every municipality and for neighborhoods within the cities:

http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html

of course it's only in Hebrew.
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« Reply #157 on: February 06, 2009, 11:59:55 am »
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Four recent polls showing tightening as Yisrael Beitenu surges:

Likud: 27
Kadima: 24
YB: 18
Labor: 13
Shas: 10
Arabs: 9
Meretz: 6
UTJ: 5
NU: 3
BY: 2


Likud: 25
Kadima: 23
YB: 19
Labor: 16
Shas: 10
Arabs: 9
Meretz: 6
UTJ: 5
BY: 4
NU: 3


Likud: 27
Kadima: 25
YB: 18
Labor: 14
Shas: 9
Arabs: 8
UTJ: 7
Meretz: 6
BY: 4
NU: 2


Likud: 26
Kadima: 23
YB: 19
Labor: 17
Shas: 10
Arabs: 10
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
NU: 3
BY: 3
Gil: 2 (!)
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« Reply #158 on: February 06, 2009, 07:15:15 pm »
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With YB surge and Kadima and Likud both weakening, there's an outside chance of YB actually being the largest party (but would not mean Lieberman becoming prime minister).
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« Reply #159 on: February 07, 2009, 12:29:27 pm »
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There's a very good interactive map on ynet with the 2003 and 2006 results for every municipality and for neighborhoods within the cities:

http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html

of course it's only in Hebrew.

What's the colour code, for those of us who don't know the alphabet?
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« Reply #160 on: February 07, 2009, 09:41:23 pm »
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Kadima-yellow
Labor-red
Likud-blue
Lieberman-light purple
UTJ-brown
Shas-light brown
Meretz-light green
pensioners-purple
NU NRP-light blue
Greens-green
The Arab parties are hard to explain, so I'll say by position: Balad is second from the bottom on the lefternmost column Raam Taal is to its immediate left and Hadash is just over Raam Taal.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #161 on: February 08, 2009, 12:24:22 pm »
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Awesome, thanks.

I assume the Jerusalem brown is Shas, not UTJ?

Also, if I'm interpreting the shades of green correctly, there's a surprising amount of Meretz municipalities. What are these areas like? The more hippyish kibbutzim?

Interesting that the area around Sderot was strongly Labour. (Maybe it wouldn't be surprising if I knew anything about the area at all other than hearing about rocket attacks in the news, but I don't).
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« Reply #162 on: February 08, 2009, 12:36:46 pm »
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Why is YB polling so high all of a sudden?
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« Reply #163 on: February 08, 2009, 01:12:51 pm »
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Interesting that the area around Sderot was strongly Labour. (Maybe it wouldn't be surprising if I knew anything about the area at all other than hearing about rocket attacks in the news, but I don't).

Amir Peretz is from Sderot.
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« Reply #164 on: February 08, 2009, 03:50:13 pm »
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Yisrael Beiteinu are a secular right party, and can be seen as an alternative to Likud. (Remember, the whole right has been strengthened as a result of the recent fighting, and people are anxious to vote for parties unwilling to give up land which could threaten Israeli's security.) Also, they are a good choice for secular Israeli's who voted Shas in the past, but are now disillusioned with Shas' religious policies and 'money-grabbing' tactics. That's my guess as to why YB are doing well.
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« Reply #165 on: February 08, 2009, 04:09:18 pm »
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Yisrael Beiteinu is also benefiting from demographic trends. Most new Jewish immigrants to Israel these days come from the former Soviet Union, which is the direction YB focuses its greatest attention. They have an added bonus in appealing to a constituency which is not really familiar or comfortable with democracy and therefore maybe more inclined to be forgiving of things like taking bribes (or not understanding why it matters).
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« Reply #166 on: February 09, 2009, 07:30:57 pm »
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Looking at the last few polls or so...

Likud is on between 30 and 25 seats.
Kadima is on between 21 and 25 seats.
YB is on between 21 and 16 seats.
Labour is on between 13 and 17 seats.
Shas is on between 9 and 11 seats.
"Arab Parties" are on between 8 and 10 seats.

Just for reference, you know. Anyone know what the margin of error looks like in terms of seats...
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #167 on: February 09, 2009, 07:59:14 pm »
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It's normally around 2%, which would mean about 2-3 seats. Polls are notoriously poor in Israel though, and coupled with the fact that there were a high percentage of voters who hadn't decided who to vote for as late as the weekend, we could see some suprises. From speaking to people in the street, I have a feeling that Yisrael Beiteinu will do even better then the polls suggest.
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« Reply #168 on: February 09, 2009, 08:05:38 pm »
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If Yisrael Beiteinu beats out Kadima for second place, what then?  What would Lieberman get in the new Cabinet?  (I'm assuming that Bibi will be the next Prime Minister)
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« Reply #169 on: February 10, 2009, 02:54:49 am »
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Could be anything except Defence Minister.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #170 on: February 10, 2009, 06:39:09 am »
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Polls are notoriously poor in Israel though,

Ah yes. I remember Peres v Bibi in 1996 (one of the first elections anywhere I paid more than a tiny bit of attention to, IIRC).

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we could see some suprises.

I would be stunned if there are no surprises.
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« Reply #171 on: February 10, 2009, 06:40:26 am »
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Turnout at noon was slightly above 2006 levels; which is apparently a surprise.
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« Reply #172 on: February 10, 2009, 07:48:11 am »

What sort of time can we expect results?
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« Reply #173 on: February 10, 2009, 09:01:09 am »
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What sort of time can we expect results?

Polls close at, IIRC, 10pm, Israeli time (so 8pm GMT).
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #174 on: February 10, 2009, 09:05:26 am »
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That's correct. Expect early results a few hours later.
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