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Author Topic: Israel 2009  (Read 43153 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #175 on: February 10, 2009, 09:34:37 AM »

From the BBC's election liveblog thingy:

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #176 on: February 10, 2009, 10:20:37 AM »

A Likud MK is quoted on the above livebloggy thingy as saying:

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #177 on: February 10, 2009, 10:27:04 AM »

Haaretz reports that Bibi himself has been bitching along similar lines. Also; Arab turnout low.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #178 on: February 10, 2009, 10:38:15 AM »
« Edited: February 10, 2009, 10:43:35 AM by ican'tbelievei'mnotverin »

Damn. So much for that.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #179 on: February 10, 2009, 11:40:50 AM »

Projections are that overall turnout may be around 69% or so; not a huge increase on last time, but a noticable one anyway.
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Franzl
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« Reply #180 on: February 10, 2009, 11:41:34 AM »

Looking at the last few polls or so...

Likud is on between 30 and 25 seats.
Kadima is on between 21 and 25 seats.
YB is on between 21 and 16 seats.
Labour is on between 13 and 17 seats.
Shas is on between 9 and 11 seats.
"Arab Parties" are on between 8 and 10 seats.

Just for reference, you know. Anyone know what the margin of error looks like in terms of seats...

I don't really know anything about Israeli political parties....but just by casually looking over the Wikipedia pages, I'd lean towards supporting Kadima. Anybody that knows something about Israel that can confirm or deny that that'd be a good fit for me?
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Yamor
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« Reply #181 on: February 10, 2009, 12:23:54 PM »

I know Israel, but I don't know you, sorry!
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Verily
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« Reply #182 on: February 10, 2009, 12:33:06 PM »

Looking at the last few polls or so...

Likud is on between 30 and 25 seats.
Kadima is on between 21 and 25 seats.
YB is on between 21 and 16 seats.
Labour is on between 13 and 17 seats.
Shas is on between 9 and 11 seats.
"Arab Parties" are on between 8 and 10 seats.

Just for reference, you know. Anyone know what the margin of error looks like in terms of seats...

I don't really know anything about Israeli political parties....but just by casually looking over the Wikipedia pages, I'd lean towards supporting Kadima. Anybody that knows something about Israel that can confirm or deny that that'd be a good fit for me?

You would almost certainly be a Kadima supporter. Shinui in 2003, Kadima in 2006 and now.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #183 on: February 10, 2009, 02:58:38 PM »

Polls close in just three minutes. Exit polls will be released immediately, although of course Israeli exit polls are as unreliable as the pre-election polls. Still, whispers seem to be that Kadima will lead in the exit polls with Likud in a close second and Yisrael Beiteinu's election-day surge failing to materialize.
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Daniel Adams
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« Reply #184 on: February 10, 2009, 03:01:43 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2009, 03:04:38 PM by Dirty South Lt. Gov. Daniel Adams »

According to Prof. Barry Rubin over at israellycool the exit polls show:

Kadima 29
Likud 27
Yisrael Beiteinu 15
Labor 13
Shas 10
Torah 5
Meretz 4
Hadash 4

Channels 1 and 10 say Kadima 30 Likud 28.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #185 on: February 10, 2009, 03:06:50 PM »

Data from CNN Interational (simulcasting Israel 2) and not elped by a computer that hs slowed down something rotten n the past 24hours and is missing charcaters!

Turnout: 64%

Proected Seast: Lady leader 29 seats Opposition Leader 27 seats Right Winger (Etreme) 15 eats Former PM 13 seats.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #186 on: February 10, 2009, 03:07:27 PM »

Channel 1's exit poll is: Kadima 30, Likud 28, Yisrael Beiteinu 14, Labour 13
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True Democrat
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« Reply #187 on: February 10, 2009, 03:12:18 PM »

Any numbers for Shas?  Right wing parties?
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Yamor
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« Reply #188 on: February 10, 2009, 03:15:42 PM »

Shas are being given 9-11.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #189 on: February 10, 2009, 03:18:45 PM »

So how hilariously wrong will the exit polls be this time? Tongue
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M
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« Reply #190 on: February 10, 2009, 03:19:31 PM »

 Smith-Ynet poll:

 

    * Kadima 28
    * Likud 26
    * Yisrael Beiteinu 16
    * Labor 14
    * Shas 10
    * United Torah Judaism 6
    * Hadash 5
    * Jewish Home 4
    * United Arab List – Ta'al 4
    * Meretz 4
    * National Union 3

 
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #191 on: February 10, 2009, 03:20:56 PM »

Coalitions will be tough. If the exit polls are correct, the all-right coalition will need Shas. But they won't work with YB. (And the reverse, of course.)

I'm thinking Kadima-Likud-Labor grand coalition with Livni as PM.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #192 on: February 10, 2009, 03:34:05 PM »

Composite exit polls:

Kadima: 29-30
Likud: 27-28
Yisrael Beiteinu: 14-15
Labor: 13
Shas: 9-10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4-5
Hadash: 4
Jewish Home: 3-4
United Arab List - Ta'al: 2-4
National Union: 3
Balad: 2-3

Any party at 4 or fewer seats in the exit poll could conceivably fail to make the threshold. The margin for winning only two seats is tiny, and parties are likely to win three seats or none.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #193 on: February 10, 2009, 03:35:57 PM »

Hilarious how it seems we have a very-close-race for first place and a very-close-race for third.

---

Yeah, Balad in particular look rather vulnerable. How do things look for parties just below that? Any chance of any of them making it? 
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The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #194 on: February 10, 2009, 03:36:12 PM »

BN says he's the next PM.
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Yamor
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« Reply #195 on: February 10, 2009, 03:39:32 PM »

The question is, even if Kadima win, if it's only one or two seats, and most parties recommend that bibi should try and create a coalition, what will Peres do? If he decides to ask bibi, some analysts say Livni may have a case to go to court, because of the precedent of always asking the largest party to form a coalition.
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The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #196 on: February 10, 2009, 03:50:02 PM »

Why is Labour off the bottom of the charts?
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The Man From G.O.P.
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« Reply #197 on: February 10, 2009, 03:55:48 PM »

The BBC Twitterish sort of deal really starting to lean that the right-bloc has the numbers to make a Gov't.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #198 on: February 10, 2009, 04:01:52 PM »


How long have you got? Tongue Though if you read back through the thread, you'll note that it was looking even worse for them a couple of months back...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #199 on: February 10, 2009, 04:02:30 PM »

3% of votes counted. No point really listing the results as they won't be even slightly representative yet...
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