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Author Topic: Israel 2009  (Read 43172 times)
big bad fab
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« Reply #50 on: December 05, 2008, 09:17:45 AM »

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.
You mean having a party with a large majority in parliament (55%) with 35% of the votes is the best. Sure, much better to avoid giving dissatisfied votes representation than having to deal with opposition. That is probably why turnout is sooo high in FPTP-systems (61% UK to 87% in DK, 77% in N & 78% in G).

PR is good in countries that are stable electorally, but not in those that are unstable.
It's more about respecting the rules of democracy. PR fx makes it possible in times of crisis to have a parliament that reflect public opinion. FPTP makes it very impossible for new political forces to break through.

Do you think
negotiations during months and months between political parties on things or names not chosen by election,
very short-term management because of instability and interim governments,
choice of the leader, not by people, but by some bigwigs in parties that may have even lose,..., as it occurred in Belgium, Slovakia, Baltic States, Israel, etc,
a guarantee for democracy and expression of the people's will ?

It's doubtful.
No electoral system is perfect, but, nowadays, the problem is more one of stability and long-term viewpoints and policies than one of expression of minorities and diversity of opinions.

Sure, what I say here is very general, not to be applied specifically to Israel, in a torn region, with war, problems of land, etc...
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #51 on: December 07, 2008, 05:04:47 PM »

The 2009 Knesset election's list of the Labour party:
1. Ehud Barak (b. 1942, former PM and current leader of the party, didn't participate in the primaries as the chairman of the party)
2. Isaac Herzog (b. 1960, current minister of Welfare and Social Services, son of former president of Israel and Labour MK Chaim Herzog)
3. Ofir Pines (b. 1961, former minister of internal affairs and a powerful figure in the party, I'd say one of the frontrunners in future Labour chairman elections).
4. Avishay Braverman (b. 1948, a man of the academy, former president of a university and the head of a powerful Knesset committee, resembling the committees of appropriations and of the budget in US congress combined)
5. Shelly Yachimovich (b. 1960, former journalist and a future prospect of the party)
6. Matan Vilnai (b. 1944, former general and Deputy Chief of Staff in the IDF, current deputy defence minister)
7. Eitan Cabel (b. 1959, didn’t participate in the primaries, slot reserved to the Labour general secretary)
8. Binyamin Ben-Eliezer (b. 1936, minister of National Infrastructure, former Labour chairman and defence minister)
9. Yuli Tamir (b. 1954, minister of education, 9th slot reserved to women, otherwise would have been 10th)
10. Amir Peretz (b. 1952, former Labour chairman and defence minister during the last war)
11. Daniel Ben-Simon (b. 1953, a new-comer, former journalist)
12. Shalon Simhon (b. 1956, minister of Agriculture, the slot reserved to the Moshavim, a rural sector in Israel)
13. Orit Noked (b. 1952, the slot reserved to the Kibbutzim, traditionaly a pro-Labour sector)
14. Einat Vilf (b. 1970)

Most polls today shows the ILP with 7-8 seats though I won’t be surprised if it get up to 12 seats.
All in all can't say I'm surprised with the primaries results.

Interesting; I'm looking forward to these elections.
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Yamor
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« Reply #52 on: December 07, 2008, 05:26:19 PM »

As we get closer, it seems increasingly likely that Likud will win, although I'm sure it'll be closer then the polls suggest. I'm more interested in how well Shas and Yisroel Beiteinu will do - both potentially important coalition parties for Likud.
Anyone know anything about surplus-vote-agreements, or is it too early for that?
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Hash
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« Reply #53 on: December 07, 2008, 05:44:01 PM »

As we get closer, it seems increasingly likely that Likud will win, although I'm sure it'll be closer then the polls suggest. I'm more interested in how well Shas and Yisroel Beiteinu will do - both potentially important coalition parties for Likud.
Anyone know anything about surplus-vote-agreements, or is it too early for that?

I think Shas will lose some ground, while Yisrael Beiteinu will gain some ground. Then, I'm not a genius on Israeli elections. I hope the Greens do well.
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Yamor
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« Reply #54 on: December 07, 2008, 05:49:59 PM »

It'll be touch and go for the greens to make the threshold.
Another interesting thing will be the situation with UTJ: will they run together or not? If they don't, will they both make the threshold?
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danny
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« Reply #55 on: December 08, 2008, 04:30:21 PM »


Today is the primaries in the Likud, and just like Labor it seems they can't get the computers to work properly which caused long lines at the polls so they have extended the voting until 1:00 at night. btw, all these problems have caused Kadima to announce that they're moving to paper ballots.
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danny
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« Reply #56 on: December 08, 2008, 09:12:05 PM »

The Likud list after preliminary results in the primary:

1. Bibi

2. Gidon Saar

3. Gilad Erdan

4. Rubi Rivlin

5. Benny Begin

6. Moshe Kachlon

7. Silvan Shalom

8. Boogey Yeelon

9. Yuval Shteinitz

10. Lea Ness

11. Yisrael Katz

12. Yuli Edelstein

13. Limor Livnat

14. Yossi Peled

15. Chaim Katz

16. Michael Eitan

17. Dan Meridor (this guy is Israels bellwether, he supported Bibi in 96, Barak in 99, Sharon in 01 and 03, Olmert in 06 and now he's going for Bibi).

18. Tzipi Chutubli

19. Gila Gamliel

20. Moshe Feiglin

21. Zeev Elkin ( currently an Mk from Kadima but will be on the LIkud list.
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dmet41
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« Reply #57 on: December 09, 2008, 01:22:07 AM »

The Likud list after preliminary results in the primary:

1. Bibi

2. Gidon Saar

3. Gilad Erdan

4. Rubi Rivlin

5. Benny Begin

6. Moshe Kachlon

7. Silvan Shalom

8. Boogey Yeelon

9. Yuval Shteinitz

10. Lea Ness

11. Yisrael Katz

12. Yuli Edelstein

13. Limor Livnat

14. Yossi Peled

15. Chaim Katz

16. Michael Eitan

17. Dan Meridor (this guy is Israels bellwether, he supported Bibi in 96, Barak in 99, Sharon in 01 and 03, Olmert in 06 and now he's going for Bibi).

18. Tzipi Chutubli

19. Gila Gamliel

20. Moshe Feiglin

21. Zeev Elkin ( currently an Mk from Kadima but will be on the LIkud list.

Wow, with the exception of Meridor it seems as though Netayanyahu's efforts to bring the party to the center have failed especially with Feiglin in the top 20. At least we know who is going to be running the party when Bibi retires...
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danny
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« Reply #58 on: December 09, 2008, 04:46:14 AM »


Wow, with the exception of Meridor it seems as though Netayanyahu's efforts to bring the party to the center have failed especially with Feiglin in the top 20. At least we know who is going to be running the party when Bibi retires...

yeah, this is a victory for the right wing within the Likud, and with a list like this I have finally made up my mind that I'm voting for Likud. hopefully Bibi gets replaced as party chairman next election so there is a proper right leadership in the Likud.
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dmet41
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« Reply #59 on: December 09, 2008, 04:14:44 PM »


Wow, with the exception of Meridor it seems as though Netayanyahu's efforts to bring the party to the center have failed especially with Feiglin in the top 20. At least we know who is going to be running the party when Bibi retires...

yeah, this is a victory for the right wing within the Likud, and with a list like this I have finally made up my mind that I'm voting for Likud. hopefully Bibi gets replaced as party chairman next election so there is a proper right leadership in the Likud.

Well, it seems like Bibi is not happy as you are with the results....http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3636062,00.html
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danny
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« Reply #60 on: December 10, 2008, 03:51:29 AM »

New poll from "Haaretz-dialog":

Likud- 36
Kadima- 27
Labor- 12
Shas- 9
Israel Beitenu- 9
UTJ- 6
Meretz- 6
Hadash- 5
Jewish home-4
Raam-Taal- 4
Balad- 2

This is the first poll I've seen that put the arab parties separately.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #61 on: December 10, 2008, 04:06:25 PM »

Excellent. Hadash should make the next Knesset.
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danny
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« Reply #62 on: December 11, 2008, 12:58:10 AM »

Excellent. Hadash should make the next Knesset.

Why would there be any doubt that they make it?
They always make it.
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ag
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« Reply #63 on: December 11, 2008, 08:49:40 PM »

Excellent. Hadash should make the next Knesset.

Why would there be any doubt that they make it?
They always make it.

But the last time they've got 5 MKs elected was, I believe, in 1977. They have 3 now, 2 in the previous Knesset. Anybody knows, what's their list this time?
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Yamor
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« Reply #64 on: December 11, 2008, 09:17:49 PM »

Why do people talk so much about Hadash? They're a very marginal communist party. It just happens that although it's not officially an arab party, most of their support is arab, as well as their policies.

Anyway, interesting rumours going round today that Shas might reinstall Aryeh Deri as party leader (although he still couldn't enter Knesset), as they think it'll bring them quite a lot more votes.
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ag
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« Reply #65 on: December 11, 2008, 10:19:53 PM »

Why do people talk so much about Hadash? They're a very marginal communist party. It just happens that although it's not officially an arab party, most of their support is arab, as well as their policies.

It's just that they are likable Smiley
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #66 on: December 11, 2008, 10:46:17 PM »

Does the old people's party still exist?
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danny
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« Reply #67 on: December 11, 2008, 11:56:32 PM »

yes, but they were such a joke that their chances to get in are slim to none.
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Hash
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« Reply #68 on: December 12, 2008, 07:43:04 AM »


They split up IIRC but neither will have seats.
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Yamor
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« Reply #69 on: December 12, 2008, 07:45:51 AM »

Feiglin has been pushed down to 36 on the Likud list, meaning he most likely won't get in! Bibi must be very happy...
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danny
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« Reply #70 on: December 12, 2008, 12:03:11 PM »


To be more precise, they split up to 4 staying with the pensioners and 3 creating a new party called Justice for the elderly. Following the split there was a period of time when the two sides constantly attacking each other and with the pensioners saying that they won't be in the coalition with the other faction. After that they they rejoined, except for one mk Elhanan Glazer who created a new party called Right Way.

So the two parties that will be running will be GIL with 6 of the 7 mks and The Right Way with Glazer, with both expected to fail to reach the cutoff.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #71 on: December 12, 2008, 05:39:33 PM »

Why do people talk so much about Hadash? They're a very marginal communist party. It just happens that although it's not officially an arab party, most of their support is arab, as well as their policies.

Exactly. They're communist, and they support Arabs.
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ag
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« Reply #72 on: December 12, 2008, 07:06:41 PM »

Why do people talk so much about Hadash? They're a very marginal communist party. It just happens that although it's not officially an arab party, most of their support is arab, as well as their policies.

Exactly. They're communist, and they support Arabs.

One man's support of the Arabs is another man's support of the Jews. Everything is relative here Smiley

I prefer to say that they differ with the majority of Israelis in their interpretation of the Jewish history Smiley
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Cylon Candidate
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« Reply #73 on: December 12, 2008, 10:32:54 PM »

Haven't Israeli-polls been pretty bad lately? They overestimates Kadima by several seats, and Livni by thirty points, if I remember right. 
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danny
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« Reply #74 on: December 13, 2008, 10:52:16 AM »

Haven't Israeli-polls been pretty bad lately? They overestimates Kadima by several seats, and Livni by thirty points, if I remember right. 

In Israel you only vote for the party so the polls can't overestimate Livni.

The polls during the last elections showed Kadima with a precipitous decline with the last polls only slightly above the actual results.
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